Blair Likely to Be Names Special Envoy to the Middle East
LONDON _ The Bush administration and its partners in the foundering Middle East peace process will take a chance that the earnestness, eloquence, energy and international prestige of British Prime Minister Tony Blair can bridge the widening gap between Israel and the Palestinians.
On Wednesday, his last day as prime minister, Blair is expected to be named special envoy for the so-called Quartet _ the U.S., United Nations, European Union and Russia _ that has been trying to push the peace process forward.
At the strong urging of the U.S., the other members of the Quartet agreed to offer the job to Blair during a meeting Tuesday in Jerusalem. Although Blair’s precise brief has not yet been spelled out, it is expected to focus on Palestinian political and economic reform.
According to British media reports, the EU and the Russians were not enthusiastic about Blair’s appointment but decided not to block the appointment.
The Israeli government was quick to signal its approval. Blair and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spoke by phone Tuesday evening, and according to a statement released by Olmert’s office, the Israeli leader told Blair that he is “a true friend of the state of Israel and added that if he accepts the position, Israel would cooperate with him to the fullest.”
Spokesmen for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah movement also expressed support for Blair and hope that his appointment would revive the peace process.
Blair has long expressed a desire to make a mark on the peace process. He has publicly and privately urged President Bush to devote more energy to the problem even as he agreed to support the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. In his final speech to the Labor Party conference last September, he pledged to dedicate his remaining months in office to “advancing peace between Israel and Palestinians.”
He sounded that theme again Tuesday, saying, “I think that anybody who cares about greater peace and stability in the world knows that a lasting and enduring resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue is essential . . . and I will do whatever I can to help such a resolution come about.”
But whether Blair’s new employers will give him the tools he needs to make a difference remains unclear. A senior U.S. official told The Associated Press that Blair’s assignment will deal primarily with helping the Palestinian authority build political institutions and will not involve direct mediation or negotiation between Palestinians and Israelis.
“The job is not just about economics, but it should not be mistaken as a mediator or negotiator,” the official said.
Arguably, the greatest success of Blair’s 10-year tenure as prime minister was bringing peace to Northern Ireland. His powers of persuasion were decisive in brokering the deal that ended the sectarian strife between Catholics and Protestants. But the Middle East conflict is far more ferocious and complex, and the prospects for peace appear to be at an all-time low, with the Palestinians split between the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip and the Fatah-run West Bank.
“It’s not a propitious moment in the peace process,” said Tamara Wittes, a Middle East specialist at Washington’s Brookings Institution.
“It’s hard to say if any envoy could have an impact,” she said. “Tony Blair can’t be taking this job thinking he’s going to deliver the deal that everyone has been hoping for the last 15 years.”
Blair also brings a certain amount of baggage to the table. His unflinching support for the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq has tarnished his standing in the Arab world, as did his refusal to condemn Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon. In Britain, his willingness to accede to Washington’s wishes earned him the nickname “Bush’s poodle.”
Despite this, Blair might turn out to be the right man for the job, according to Robin Shepherd, an analyst with Chatham House, a London think tank. “The only kind of person who has no baggage would be someone who is very obscure and carries little clout,” Shepherd said. “Tony Blair is a heavyweight on the international stage. . . . Blair might not have the support of the Arab Street because of Iraq, but he has credibility with Arab elites and with the Israelis.”
Blair has tried to portray himself as a friend to both the Palestinian and Israeli governments, and he endorses the idea of a separate Palestinian state co-existing with Israel. Analysts say Blair would be highly motivated by the chance to repair the damage caused to his legacy by the Iraq war.
David Kimche, former director-general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, said Blair’s stature could help nudge the process forward.
“He will make a very good nursemaid for both sides, who without someone like him will have great difficulty moving forward. The big question is how America will react to his recommendations. That will make or break his activity.”
But not everyone agrees with the pick.
“The appointment under the present conditions would be a waste of his status, because the situation is far from ripe for any serious negotiations,” said Dore Gold, former Israeli ambassador to the UN and currently president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a conservative think tank.
During the British Mandate from 1920 to 1948, London was the dominant diplomatic power in what is now Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian territories. Ali Jarbawi, a Palestinian professor of political science at Bir Zeit University in the West Bank, said the historical memory was not reassuring.
“We’re being put under another British Mandate without announcing it,” Jarbawi said. “One mandate after another, as if we are not capable.
“All this has been tried before,” he said. “The only thing that hasn’t been tried is actually to say: How about an end to the (Israeli) occupation?”
The one thing that most experts agree on is that Blair’s first task will be to re-establish his independence from Washington.
Given the present mood in the region and the long odds for success, Wittes, the Brookings analyst, said the appointment of Blair “might best be understood as a kind of symbolic move, a way for (the Quartet) to say, `This is still important to us.’”
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(Hundley reported from London, with Greenberg in Jerusalem.)
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(c) 2007, Chicago Tribune.
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