Picking a President a ‘Strange, Awkward’ Process

By Robert Rupp

SUPER Tuesday represents America’s closest thing to a national primary, since it involves 24 states representing 40 percent of the U.S. population. But it also represents federalized diversity gone rampant, as these states adopted a variety of different formats. Each had to decide between holding a caucus or primary, a closed or open system, and a proportional or winner-take-all format.

Adding to the confusion is the fact that the West Virginia GOP will be holding a convention to select some of its delegates to the Republican National Convention.

Pity the poor candidates who must compete under this patchwork of different voter scenarios, and pity the media who must explain them.

The lack of consistency in today’s voting formats has serious implications. Party conventions – so long just coronations of winners already through state primaries – actually could be contested this year and decided by small number of delegates. For the first time in 50 years, we are facing the prospect of at least one brokered convention.

This patchwork of formats would not be accepted in other venues. Imagine if a variety of rules had been applied to different parts of the field at Sunday’s Super Bowl. If the rules allowed 16 players between the 40-yard lines, but only six in the red zone. Or if field goals counted 3 points when kicked from 20 yards and 13 if kicked from 40.

Few football teams or fans would accept those conditions, but that is what candidates for the presidential nomination face when competing for delegates in today’s 24 states. As we prepare to watch tonight’s returns, let’s review the choices of election format that will be in play in various states, for the format of the vote can impact the outcome. As Daniel Saari, a Californian mathematician observed: “Election outcomes can accurately reflect the choice of an election than the voters’ wishes.”

Option 1: Primary or caucus

Although West Virginia Republicans will use a convention format, the rest of the states will use either a primary or caucus. Primaries allow voters to cast votes in their precincts during the day, while the caucus format requires that they assemble in a neighborhood building and proclaim their choice.

Prediction: On the Democratic side, caucuses will favor Barack Obama. He has a background as an organizer in Chicago so he knows caucus procedure. Indicative of his focus, he thanks at each rally the local organizers before he recognizes the politicians.

Two exceptions to this rule are Arkansas (Hillary Clinton’s base) and Minnesota, where Clinton got an early start on organization.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney should do well in caucus states against John McCain, who lacked money and organization. Romney’s easy wins in Wyoming and Nevada, however, were offset by Mike Huckabee’s win in Iowa, which took advantage of existing grassroots pro-life and homeschooling networks.

Option 2: Open or closed primary

Having selected the primary option, 15 states had to decide between a closed primary in which only registered party members can vote, and an open primary, which allows independents to participate.

Prediction: Obama will do better in open primaries because he attracts independents. A closed primary favors Clinton because she has more endorsements from party leaders and more support among party regulars, especially older voters who are more faithful to their party.

The exception was New Hampshire, where she won an “open primary.” But in that case John McCain drew off independent voters. On the Republican side, there is also a similar split between the two leading candidates. McCain attracts independents and does better in open primary states like New Hampshire. The fact that McCain compiled narrow wins in the closed primaries of South Carolina and Florida indicates that he has captured momentum.

Option 3: Winner-take-all or proportional distribution of delegates

A majority of today’s Republican primaries but none of the Democratic ones have “winner-take-all” format. Such contests discourage competition since an opponent could invest time and money and end up with zero delegates.

Rudy Giuliani’s campaign spent much of 2007 pressuring New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to become “winner-take-all” states. Such action was expected to get the former mayor 183 delegates today and all of his opponents none. But the former mayor has dropped out, leaving McCain to exploit the situation that Giuliani prepared. The expected result today may leave Romney without a delegate in those three populous states.

A winner-take-all format in Arizona also ensures another 53 delegates for McCain today, while a lack of such format in Massachusetts allows McCain to pick up some delegates in Romney’s home state.

The number of winner-take-all states will encourage an earlier end to the Republican race – just as the decision to award delegates proportionally will extend the Democratic contest.

Today could be important not just for the level of participation in the presidential nomination process (24 states), but also for the level of frustration – being the first time that a Super Tuesday did not resolve the nominations.

Almost a half-century ago, John Kennedy barely beat Hubert Humphrey in the 1960 Wisconsin Democratic primary. His win in Humphrey’s neighboring state was undercut by high expectations the press had for him. When an aide asked Kennedy what the narrow victory meant, the Massachusetts senator said: “It means we go to West Virginia [the next primary in line] and do it all over again.”

Tonight, after 1,600 Democratic delegates have been selected, both Obama and Clinton may also move on to the next primary. Their race could continue to Virginia and Maryland, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

And if they get too near the end of the line – West Virginia’s primary May 13 – national attention will be not just on who will win, but how. For process has become important in this historic year as we conduct what David Broder calls our “strange and awkward way” of picking a president – a process made stranger by a plethora of election formats.

Rupp is a political science professor at West Virginia Wesleyan College.

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