Hey, Pa.: Get Ready for Iowa on Steroids’
By Tom Murse
We could play critical role on April 22 in choosing Democratic nominee, analysts say, while GOP should be settled by then.
NEWS ANALYSIS
And the winner is …
Pennsylvania.
Maybe.
Super Tuesday did little to clear up the Democratic contest for president, and political analysts say there’s a good shot the Keystone State could play a critical role in choosing the party’s nominee for the first time in modern history.
Translation: Gird yourself for a little extra attention from the candidates and their operatives, not to mention national political correspondents such as CNN’s Wolf Blitzer – folks we’re not accustomed to seeing in these parts in presidential primaries.
“Get ready for Iowa on steroids,” said James Hoefler, a political scientist at Dickinson College.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, neither of whom could lay claim to the nomination after two dozen primaries held Tuesday, are going the distance – at least through Pennsylvania’s April 22 primary and perhaps beyond.
“We’re preparing for a long, drawn-out affair,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
The status of the Democratic and Republican contests has essentially flipped in recent weeks. Where Clinton once appeared to be assured of the nomination, she is now narrowly leading Obama. And on the Republican side, which had been a free-for-all, U.S. Sen. John McCain has all but locked up the nomination.
A key to whether Democratic voters here will get to vote in an undecided primary are the outcomes of the Tidal Basin, or Chesapeake, primaries next week: Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia – considered to be Obama territory – vote on Tuesday.
Also important are the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, whose primaries are March 4. The Clinton camp feels good about those two states, and they’re hoping victories there could cancel out an Obama surge next week.
“March 4th is the critical day,” said G. Terry Madonna, the director of Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs. “If we end up after March 4th closely divided, a couple hundred votes separating them and no one pushing 2025 delegates (that’s the magic number for Democrats), then Pennsylvania becomes, maybe, the defining primary.”
Maybe?
Well, yes. Maybe.
Our primary – offering the most delegates after the March 4 contests in Texas, Ohio and a couple of other states – might not push Clinton or Obama over the edge for nomination. Which means Democrats could end up with a contested convention on their hands.
“Are we going to have a say? I don’t think so,” said Hoefler. “I don’t think we’re going to be a determining factor either way. The real bottom line is this is extremely fluid. I think this goes all the way to a convention.”
Why?
The Democratic Party appropriates its delegates roughly in proportion to the popular vote, not winner-takes-all like the Republican Party does. That means neither Clinton nor Obama, given how tight they are now, is likely to garner the 2,025 delegates necessary for nomination before March 4. Clinton now has 845, and Obama has 765.
There’s also the issue of super delegates – those party and elected officials such as congressmen and governors who can support whomever they choose regardless of the primary outcome.
“Given the way the Democratic Party assigns delegates, it’s going to be difficult for either of the candidates to get the magic number, given that they’re both so remarkably strong,” said Richard Glenn, who chairs the department of Government and Political Affairs at Millersville University.
“You’ve got the Chesapeake primaries, and I guess if one candidate were to sweep all of those, then you might have a favorite by the time you get to Pennsylvania,” said Glenn. “But neither of these candidates has swept anything.”
A contested convention, or one that forces the nomination fight beyond the first ballot, is extremely rare these days. For Democrats, the last time that happened was in 1952, when it took three ballots to nominate Adlai Stevenson.
What happened on Tuesday, demographically speaking, could serve as a precursor to what will happen in the next few weeks in the Tidal Basin and in Texas and Ohio.
Clinton won in New Jersey, Massachusetts and New York by capturing Hispanics and women. Obama, on the other hand, took Georgia, Alabama and his own home state of Illinois by winning over black voters and well-educated, wealthier white voters.
“There were no breakthroughs in terms of demographics,” said Madonna. “He wins on change. She wins on experience. The race is tight and it has a demographic- and issue-stability.
“There isn’t any doubt that if this goes on and it’s still close, with nobody reaching that magic number, Pennsylvania is in play in six weeks,” Madonna said.
If Pennsylvania is, in fact, in position to determine the Democratic nominee, Clinton has the advantage. She has held a sizable lead over Obama in poll after poll – a lead that hasn’t wavered much in the past year. In the most recent Keystone Poll at F&M, taken in January, Clinton held 40 percent to Obama’s 20 percent. A November poll done by Quinnipiac University found Clinton running away with the Democratic primary here, leading Obama 48-15.
Those numbers are certain to tighten, however, as Obama gets his ground game going here. “If it comes down to Pennsylvania, Obama will have his work cut out for him,” Madonna said.
Meantime, McCain, the Arizona senator whose supporters portray him as a maverick, benefited from former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s departure from the race and his support of the troop surge in Iraq. The Republican nomination is his to lose.
“He is the inevitable nominee, barring some unforeseen circumstance,” Madonna said.
CONTACT US: tmurse@LNPnews.com or 481-6021
Originally published by Tom Murse, New Era Staff Writer.
(c) 2008 Intelligencer Journal. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.