Six Questions Facing the Three Remaining Presidential Candidates

By Scott Canon, Dave Helling and St, The Kansas City Star, Mo.

Mar. 6–In a campaign that has stumped all the political puzzle masters, the 2008 race offers an unending string of riddles.

This week posed as many questions for the Democrats, lurching forward into the unknown of what happens when no candidate can win enough committed delegates before the convention.

Will the seven-week run-up to the Pennsylvania primary April 22 be heaven or hell for the Democrats?

Hell, based on the political rhetoric Wednesday, one day after Hillary Clinton’s big wins in Ohio and Texas.

Responding to Clinton’s tough attacks leading up to Tuesday’s primaries, Barack Obama came out aggressively Wednesday, demanding to know why Clinton refused to release her tax returns.

“What does Clinton have to hide?” his campaign asked.

Clinton’s camp responded with both guns blazing: Promising those returns “on or around” April 15, then asking about Obama’s ties to Chicago businessman Tony Rezko, whose trial on federal influence peddling began Monday.

“Instead of making false attacks, we urge Senator Obama to release all relevant financial and other information related to indicted political fixer Tony Rezko,” spokesman Howard Wolfson said.

Uh-ohh.

“This is not a good thing for Democrats right now,” said Kansas State University political scientist Joe Aistrup.

But Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University in Topeka, said, “Things will be fine.”

Intraparty sniping during primary season rarely has lasting effects, he said.

Just look at the Ronald Reagan-George H.W. Bush battle in 1980. Bush went so far as to label Reagan’s fiscal policies “voodoo economics.”

“Bush wound up as Reagan’s vice president,” Beatty said.

What will superdelegates do now?

The math is clear: Superdelegates will decide the Democratic nomination.

There are just 643 pledged delegates still available, according to an Associated Press survey, not enough to put either Clinton or Obama over the top without any superdelegate votes.

“The pressure on superdelegates will continue to accelerate,” said John Temporiti, Missouri Democratic Partychairman and a superdelegate.

Could that pressure include inappropriate threats — or promises?

“I suppose it may happen,” said Larry Gates, a Kansas superdelegate. “But I think either candidate will have to say, ‘I’m the most electable,’ and back that up.”

Superdelegates can change their support at any time. Also up for grabs: John Edwards’ 26 delegates. They could be crucial.

Are Democrats asking for trouble if they don’t have a nominee before their national convention Aug. 25?

Yep.

That’s waiting too long, several political experts said.

“The sooner the Democrats can settle this nomination, the better for them,” said Costas Panagopoulos, a political scientist at Fordham University. “Rather than fight amongst themselves, it might be helpful to focus on the real opponent here, which is the Republicans and John McCain.”

Expect Democrats to be even more emotionally committed to their favorite candidate if the battle continues for another five months, he said.

“There will be little time for those wounds to heal in the general election that will follow if the race is not settled until midsummer.”

“The question is, does the party want to make those decisions now, or does it want to make them in late summer?” Panagopoulos said. “I think it’s best to make them sooner.”

What about Michigan and Florida?

Right now both states — and their 366 delegates — have no official role in picking the nominee because they held their primaries so soon on the campaign calendar that the national party ruled them out of order.

That has to change, the Clinton campaign said again Wednesday.

“If our party refuses to let them participate in the convention, we will provide a political opportunity for the Republicans to win both” states, Clinton strategists Mark Penn and Harold Ickes wrote in a memo.

Obama supporters call that blatantly unfair. Both candidates agreed last year not to campaign in the two states (Obama wasn’t even on the Michigan ballot.)

Increasingly likely: A do-over, with primaries and/or caucuses, perhaps late this spring.

Does McCain get a spring break?

Take a seat, John McCain.

Rest. Raise some money. Test your messages for the general election. Raise more money. Think about a vice president. And keep raising money.

He can raise money to pay off primary debts while his Democratic opponents spend their money savaging each other.

Bonus: The Republican National Committee can now spend on his behalf. Any number of independent groups probably will air commercials to bolster his prospects. Chief among them is Freedom’s Watch, a group backed by Bush fundraisers and Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson, which has talked about spending $200 million.

“We can expect they’ll play a role,” said Steve Weissman of the Campaign Finance Institute.

Meantime, McCain can relax.

“This is a man in his 70s,” said John Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College who worked on George H.W. Bush’s 1988 and 1992 campaigns. “A presidential campaign is a grueling experience for anyone. Tired candidates make mistakes. … McCain can put his feet up, make himself a batch of cocoa and watch the Democrats beat up on each other.”

OK, when the primaries are over, what happens to the loser’s supporters?

In one of the most unpredictable primary contests in modern times, one thing remains predictable: A good half of the Democratic electorate will know disappointment.

Less certain is how those voters will respond.

If Clinton falls short, the damage, experts say, might be limited, although it risks alienating some women voters.

Should Obama lose, however — particularly if he loses in what supporters see as a backroom deal — a political movement might collapse in its infancy.

Analysts say the Democrats might then lose the record number of young voters drawn to his candidacy and see black turnout dip.

“My gut says that a Clinton-McCain election would not be a high turnout election, no matter how high the turnout has been in the primaries, and it has been extraordinary,” said Curtis Gans, director of American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate. “McCain is losing conservatives. Clinton will have a drop off from the number of young people who voted for Obama. And the type of energy in the primaries might not exist in the general (election) if you don’t have a George Bush-type villain to vote against.”

At the same time, polls say it’s a Democratic year — the war, a bad economy, Bush fatigue.

Whether that will be enough to overcome the Clinton-Obama battle may be the biggest unanswered question of all.

“Democrats have an edge,” said Charles Stewart, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “The loser will have to be active in working for the winner, but their supporters will probably come around.”

By Scott Canon, Dave Helling and Steve Kraske

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