Obama Unable to Seal the Deal

By Wayne Washington, The State, Columbia, S.C.

Apr. 24–Struggles dampen excitement that followed big win in S.C.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama roared out of South Carolina in January on the strength of a smashing win in a Southern state. He was the uber-smooth, history-making candidate who had just shown, in his blowout win over Hillary Rodham Clinton, that he could win over voters in a part of the country where black candidates in statewide races have not fared well.

But three months have passed, and Obama, who was thumped by Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary Tuesday, has not been able to close the show. And questions persist that blue collar, white Democrats won’t back him if he is the nominee.

Supporters now turn to contests in neighboring North Carolina and in Indiana on May 6 as Obama’s next opportunities to lock up the nomination.

“I’m going to North Carolina for Senator Obama next week,” said former S.C. Gov. Jim Hodges. “There are a lot of factors that make North Carolina very appealing. There are a lot of younger, college-educated voters. African-American voters. Its demographics are much more favorable for Senator Obama.”

Hodges campaigned for Obama in southern and central Pennsylvania, and he has been asked to go to Indiana, though the former governor said he’s not certain he will make it to the Hoosier State.

North Carolina and Indiana stand as opportunities for Obama to win more delegates than he lost in Pennsylvania.

Obama supporters said Pennsylvania was Clinton country from the start. Like Ohio, which Clinton also won, Pennsylvania has a significant number of older voters and blue collar, working-class white voters who have strongly backed the U.S. senator from New York.

The Pennsylvania primary went the way many thought it would — Clinton won over those older and working-class voters; Obama had strength in Philadelphia and surrounding suburbs.

For Clinton, the win allows her to pound away on a familiar theme — that Obama is unappealing to parts of the electorate the Democratic nominee needs if he or she is to win in November.

Obama’s supporters aren’t buying that.

“I don’t see how losses in Pennsylvania or Ohio in the primary imperils his chances in the fall,” Hodges said. “Many of those voters who voted for Clinton will be for Senator Obama this fall if it’s a choice between him and Senator (John) McCain.”

Many white Pennsylvania voters told pollsters and reporters they would consider supporting McCain if Obama becomes the Democratic nominee.

Former S.C. Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum said Obama has already shown strength among white voters and would do so again this fall.

“I was in Iowa,” said Tenenbaum, noting that state’s high percentage of white voters and Obama’s victory in the caucuses there earlier this year. “Iowa is working-class. Look at Wisconsin. Minnesota. Missouri. He can carry white states. And if he is the nominee, he will carry New York and California.”

Before Obama can worry about the general election, he must nail down the nomination. On that score, he remains far better positioned than Clinton.

The Democratic Party awards delegates on a proportional basis, not in a winner-take-all manner.

With Florida and Michigan stripped of their delegates because party leaders in those states decided to go against party wishes to hold their primaries earlier than initially planned, neither candidate will win enough delegates through caucuses and primaries to automatically earn the nomination.

Many party leaders, however, have said they would be hard-pressed to have as a nominee the candidate who earned fewer delegates through caucuses and primaries.

Obama, who has won 32 of the 49 caucuses and primaries held in states and territories so far, went into Tuesday’s primary well ahead in the delegate count. He emerged that way, too.

“You can try to paint this any way you want,” Tenenbaum said. “This is about delegates.”

And now, it’s about the next set of contests.

Obama’s supporters have high hopes for North Carolina and Indiana, where independents are allowed to vote. Clinton is poised to do well in Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico.

Clinton also is counting on superdelegates — those party insiders who will help decide the nomination — to swing in her favor.

“At the end of the day, people have to decide who they think would be not only the best president, which is the most important question, but who would be the better candidate against Senator McCain,” Clinton said Tuesday. “And I think the coalition that I’ve put together, as demonstrated once again (Tuesday) night, is a very strong base for us to beat Senator McCain.”

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the grinding nomination fight helps McCain and shows fissures in the Democratic Party.

“This contest has persisted, and the lines have hardened,” Sabato said. “These two have carved up the Democratic base almost evenly, and the parts don’t fit well together.”

Reach senior writer Wayne Washington at (803) 771-8385.

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