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After Trailing McCain in Fla., Obama Makes Up Ground

Posted on: Friday, 1 August 2008, 06:00 CDT

By Martha T. Moore

When Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain visit Florida today, they'll find a split electorate in a state that's been eager to play a decisive role since primaries ended in June.

Obama has been playing catch-up with a vengeance after refusing to campaign here during the primaries because of a Democratic Party dispute over its January contest date. He has spent $5 million on TV ads in Florida, more than in any other state, and dispatched 200 staffers there. McCain is not airing any TV ads in Florida and has 40 staffers.

After trailing McCain in May polls by as much as 10 points, Obama has squeaked by his Republican rival. A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday shows Obama up, 46% to 44%, within the margin of error.

Today, Obama holds a town-hall-style meeting on economic issues in St. Petersburg, and McCain holds a fundraising concert in Panama City. Both will speak at the National Urban League convention in Orlando.

For McCain, Florida is the state that handed him the nomination when he knocked out Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney in the GOP primary Jan. 29. He's backed by the state's popular governor, Charlie Crist, and he has emphasized he lived in Jacksonville after his 1973 release from a North Vietnamese POW camp.

Both candidates are advertising on radio to Hispanic voters, with whom polls show Obama has a big lead. Jewish voters, traditionally Democratic, also favor Obama but not by as large a margin as they did John Kerry in 2004. As a result, Jewish voters are "definitely" a target audience for McCain, says Florida GOP Chairman Jim Greer. To that end, McCain's campaign has frequently deployed Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who will campaign in the state next week. "He's not only a leader, he's a Jewish leader, and they follow what he has to say," Greer says.

Still, McCain is not on TV to counter Obama's barrage -- and the Democrat is running as many ads in northern Florida and the heavily Republican Panhandle as in South Florida, which usually favors Democrats, points out Ken Goldstein of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project, which tracks spending on political advertising.

Obama's big spending is "a tell that they think (the state) really is in play," Goldstein says.

Thursday's poll shows a narrower margin for Obama than Quinnipiac's poll a month ago, which had Obama up 47%-43%.

McCain's embrace of offshore oil drilling could be winning favor with Florida voters who recently switched positions themselves, says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute. Offshore drilling has long been unpopular in the state -- and as a result, with politicians campaigning there. But last month, McCain said he agreed with giving states the power to allow drilling and has since hammered Obama on his opposition.

"When McCain switched on drilling, a lot of people said, 'There goes Florida,'" Brown says. But Quinnipiac's poll shows 60% of Florida voters now favor offshore drilling, and 10% of them have changed their mind from opposing it. McCain has also gained support among independents: He's ahead 47%-41%, compared with 47%-37% for Obama a month ago. "To know why, just fill up your gas tank," Brown says.

Independent voters are fickle, and "voters are willing to embrace almost anything they think will lower gas prices," says Steve Schale, Obama's Florida campaign director, who says drilling would not bring prices down. (c) Copyright 2008 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc.

Source: USA TODAY

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