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Democrats unlikely to block Bush nominee-analysts

Posted on: Wednesday, 20 July 2005, 13:27 CDT

By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barring unforeseen revelations, President Bush's nominee to the Supreme Court John Roberts is highly likely to be confirmed, political analysts said on Wednesday.

Roberts, a conservative appeals court judge, could only be blocked from taking his lifetime seat if the Democratic minority in the Senate decided to filibuster the nomination, endlessly extending debate to prevent it coming to a vote.

Under Senate rules, it takes 60 votes to cut off debate.

Several Democratic consultants and independent academics cited three reasons it would be very difficult, if not impossible, for Democrats to filibuster Roberts.

They said it was uncertain enough Democrats would vote against Roberts to effect the filibuster, public opinion was likely to be hostile and Senate Republicans might revive their efforts to change the rules so filibusters could not apply to judicial nominations.

"He'll face tough questions but it's hard to imagine he can be filibustered. I have to think at least five or six Democrats would be inclined to vote for him," said Mike McCurry, who served as press secretary to former President Bill Clinton and now runs a political consultancy.

"The Republicans start with 55 votes in the Senate and Democrats need to remind themselves of that. Plus, he sounds at least from what we know right now like a decent, thoughtful, reflective guy," McCurry said.

Several analysts praised the way the White House managed the introduction of Roberts. All day Tuesday, the media was full of speculation that appeals court judge Edith Clement was the nominee.

By springing Roberts on the public in the evening, the White House was able to control the crucial first impression the nominee left with the public as a highly qualified, intellectually brilliant jurist who was no extremist.

"The White House managed to find a nominee who will move the court to the right without having the kind of provocative characteristics that could cause problems during confirmation," said Dean Spiliotes, a political scientist at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm's College.

Roberts has a relatively thin record on the appeals court, having only served on the bench for two years. He was confirmed by the Senate to that post by a unanimous voice vote.

FORTY OPINIONS

Women's groups, environmentalists and liberal activist organizations, who had geared up for a do-or-die fight against Bush's nominee, all called on the Senate to reject Roberts.

"George Bush could have chosen a moderate conservative ... Instead he chose, characteristically, to pick a fight. We intend to give him one," said National Organization for Women president Kim Gandy.

But even if they all stick together, Democrats are likely to find their hands tied in the Senate.

"Roberts can't be blocked. This is a mainstream, pro-business conservative, not a social jihad warrior. A filibuster just wouldn't resonate with the public," said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

Democratic political consultant Douglas Hattaway, who worked on then vice president Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign, agreed. "The Senate has a strong tradition of letting the President have his pick. The odds are against a successful filibuster unless there's some extreme, egregious things that come out that we don't know about yet." he said.

Republicans almost ended the Democratic minority's ability to use the filibuster to block judicial nominees earlier this year by threatening to change Senate rules of procedure.

They were blocked when seven Democrat and seven Republican senators came together and agreed to preserve the filibuster but to use it only in "extraordinary circumstances," which they did not define, leaving it to the personal judgment of each of the 14 signatories.

If Democrats did try to filibuster Roberts, analysts said it was likely the group of 14 would break apart, paving the way for the Republican leadership to revive the effort to change Senate rules.

Source: REUTERS

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