Rice no-show casts cloud over Asia security forum

By Ed Cropley

BANGKOK (Reuters) – A no-show by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice at this week’s annual east and southeast Asian
security forum is raising concerns about U.S. commitment to a
region where China is fast becoming the dominant player.

Rice’s office insists other “essential travel” and a
scheduling snafu are the main reasons for her missing the July
28-29 ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Laos, a meeting attended
regularly by her predecessors.

But the excuse has cut little ice in the Association of
South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), a 10-country bloc of 600
million people with oil and natural gas reserves seen as
essential to fueling China’s booming economy into the
long-term.

“I know there has been a sense of disappointment,” Kantathi
Suphamongkhon, foreign minister of traditional U.S. ally
Thailand, told reporters.

He stopped short of saying it was a snub, but acknowledged
that analysts were saying Rice’s decision to send her deputy,
Robert Zoellick, to the Asia-Pacific region’s only security
forum was a symbol of the United States ceding the initiative
to China.

“This was the concern. Hopefully, next year she will be
able to come and things will fall into place. Hopefully, this
is just a unique scheduling problem,” Kantathi told Reuters.

With a carefully mapped-out strategy to guarantee stability
in its own backyard — and main energy gateway — Beijing has
cosied up to ASEAN over the past few years, signing a raft of
friendship treaties, non-aggression pacts and free trade deals.

Conversely, ever since September 11, 2001, U.S. diplomacy
in southeast Asia has been dominated by bilateral “war on
terror” security concerns to the detriment of America’s wider
strategic role as a counterweight to a growing China, analysts
say.

“I’m not sure if it’s a very wise move by the U.S.,” said
K.S. Nathan of the Singapore-based Institute of South East
Asian Studies. “They are, by default, giving the initiative to
others, especially the rising powers of China and India.”

“The Chinese are placing a lot of emphasis on
multilateralism and quite clearly it will be an opportunity for
China to strengthen its influence further.”

WHAT HANDSHAKE THIS YEAR?

Historically, the ARF, one of the few international clubs
to include North Korea, has been dominated by the rare
opportunity it permits for contact between top officials from
Washington and Pyongyang to discuss the latter’s nuclear
ambitions.

North Korean Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun is due in
Vientiane, although the traditional “will they, won’t they”
excitement over a U.S.-North Korean handshake has been
superseded by Tuesday’s scheduled resumption of six-way nuclear
talks in Beijing.

Instead, the forum, which lumps ASEAN in with the likes of
China, Japan, the United States, Russia, Australia, the two
Koreas and India, is likely to focus on anti-terrorism issues,
such as improving maritime security, especially in the key
Malacca Strait.

A quarter of the world’s trade and almost all oil imports
to China and Japan pass through the narrow sea lane, which is
patrolled jointly by Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

At their last meeting, in Jakarta a year ago, ARF members
agreed on the need to apply stringent airline standard security
to shipping. They look likely to put flesh on the bones of this
initiative, probably by increasing the scope of joint patrols.

The ARF, which follows the ASEAN meetings, is also likely
to touch on democratic reform — or its absence — in Myanmar,
given that Yangon’s military junta is due to become ASEAN
chairman in 2006.

Threatened with U.S. and European boycotts if the former
Burma does take over the reins, ASEAN diplomats are praying
Yangon’s generals will tell the meeting they are stepping aside
– although in truth nobody really knows what they are
planning.

ASEAN includes Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Singapore,
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines.