Support for Bush Iraq policy dives after Katrina

By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. public support for President
George W. Bush’s Iraq policy has nosedived in the aftermath of
Hurricane Katrina, but this seems unlikely to force the
administration to change tack, political analysts said on
Wednesday.

“Katrina has changed many things but I don’t think it will
change Iraq policy. There is almost no elasticity in that
policy,” said Danielle Pletka of the conservative American
Enterprise Institute, an acknowledged supporter both of Bush
and his Iraq policy.

Political scientist Cal Jillson of Southern Methodist
University agreed. “There’s no way back for Bush on Iraq. He
can’t run away from that policy. He has to secure something he
can plausibly point to as success.”

Public support for the president on Iraq had been gradually
eroding in the past year as the U.S. military death toll
mounted toward 2,000 and little progress was made in stopping a
bloody insurgency that began soon after the 2003 invasion.

But backing for his policy, that U.S. troops would stay
until Iraqis can establish a government and army that can
govern and defend itself, has dropped dramatically since
Katrina devastated Louisiana and Mississippi.

A Gallup poll published on Monday found 66 percent of
respondents favored the immediate withdrawal of some or all of
the U.S. troops in Iraq, a 10 percentage point jump in two
weeks.

Bush’s personal approval on Iraq fell from 40 percent to 32
percent in the same period. In a CBS/New York Times poll the
previous week, 75 percent said Bush had no clear plan for
bringing U.S. troops home.

Republicans in Congress, who know they face difficult
mid-term elections in November 2006, are becoming increasingly
concerned about their prospects.

“The mood up here among Republicans is very very sour,”
said one senior staffer who did not want to be named.

For many Americans, the connection between Katrina and Iraq
comes down to one word — money.

“Americans want to attend to the needs of people at home
before we take care of people overseas,” said Steven Wayne, a
political scientist at Georgetown University. “But this
president rarely if ever goes back on his own decisions and his
legacy is largely connected to Iraq.”

NEW CONTEXT

Said Jillson, “People know we’re running huge deficits and
they know the costs have just rocketed upward. Many Americans
are now looking at the Iraq situation in that context.”

Congress has already approved $62.3 billion for recovery
and reconstruction after Katrina and the eventual cost could
reach $200 billion or more.

The Iraq war and occupation have cost over $200 billion so
far. The United States is spending $5.6 billion a month there,
or almost $186 million a day.

Some Republicans, like Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, had been
arguing even before the hurricane hit that the current Iraq
policy was unsustainable.

“We are seen as occupiers, we are targets. We have got to
get out. I don’t think we can sustain our current policy, nor
do I think we should,” he said in an interview last month.

More and more Republicans may break with the president in
coming months if U.S. casualties continue to mount in Iraq and
the country seems no nearer to stability.

But the party as a whole had little choice other than to
stick with Bush, said political scientist David Birdsell of
Baruch College in New York City.

“They don’t have anywhere to go. If they should go in a
different direction, then which direction?” he said.

Democrats, who up to now have been reluctant to criticize
the Iraq policy for fear of seeming unpatriotic, may also feel
more able to do so.

“So far, the Democrats have been cowardly and unwilling to
speak out. They need to do so if they want to reap the
political benefits of Bush’s unpopularity,” said Phyllis Bennis
of the Institute for Policy Studies, a liberal think-tank which
opposed the Iraq invasion and occupation.