• E-mail
• Print
• Comment
• Font Size
• Digg
• del.icio.us
• Discuss article

Voter Turnout Points Toward Likely Special Initiatives Loss

Posted on: Thursday, 3 November 2005, 12:00 CST

By Steve Geissinger, SACRAMENTO BUREAU

SACRAMENTO -- Officials in populous counties said Wednesday they see a voter turnout in the 40 percent range based on absentee ballot returns -- a figure high enough experts say it may doom the governor's reform measures.

County statistics will figure prominently in today's statewide prediction of voter turnout by the state's chief elections official, Secretary of State Bruce McPherson.

Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and his foes in Tuesday's special election are now focusing primarily on getting out voters likely to cast ballots for their side.

On the Democratic front, Warren Beatty and Rob Reiner, both Hollywood figures like Schwarzenegger and both potential gubernatorial challengers, have joined the turnout effort in Democrat-leaning California."Voter turnout projections of around 40 percent are probably pretty good," said political analyst Doug Willis, who spent three decades covering the Capitol and retired as head of the Associated Press bureau in Sacramento.

Though the forecast is low, in keeping with most California special elections, it is not low enough to bail out Schwarzenegger's reform measures, according to some experts.

At that level, the turnout will include not only the Republican conservatives who consistently vote and can be counted on to support Schwarzenegger but also Democrats and independents drawn into the fray by labor union opposition.

"The critical number to look for is if the number of registered voters who vote on November 8 is plus or minus 35 percent," said David McCuan, a political science professor at California State University, Sonoma.

"At below 35 percent, the governor pulls close and maybe wins on at least one ballot measure in his 'Year of Reform" package," McCuan said. "He'll be able to claim at least some level of support and victory, but only if turnout is about 1-in-3 registered voters.

But in the 40 percent range, "the governor loses across the board, and unions rejoice," said McCuan.

The most populous county, Los Angeles, sent out

636,988 absentee ballots and has received back 247,874, or about 39 percent. Voter registration in Los Angeles is heavily Democratic.

In Alameda County, another heavily Democratic county, election officials have sent out 253,925 absentee ballots and received back 101,178, or about 40 percent.

In heavily Republican Orange County, about 411,000 ballots have gone out, and about 160,000, or 39 percent, have come back.

In GOP-leaning San Diego County, 380,919 absentee ballots went out and 156,730 have returned, or 41 percent.

Since 2002, when a new law gave voters the right to designate themselves permanent absentees, the increase in absentee voting has risen dramatically. The trend could make Tuesday the first election in which half of all ballots are cast by absentee voting.

A downside to the development is that the avalanche of absentee ballots could lead to delays of the final tallies in close races.

Contact Sacramento Bureau Chief Steve Geissinger at sgeissinger@angnewspapers.com.

Source: Oakland Tribune

More News in this Category