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Iran Press: Daily Presents Analysis of Russia's Views on Iran's Nuclear File

Posted on: Friday, 18 November 2005, 15:00 CST

Text of commentary by Amir Mohebbian: "Iran's nuclear file and the Russians' behavioural logic" by Iranian newspaper Resalat on 16 November

Note: In previous articles, we resorted to extracting the Russian elites' view about Iran's nuclear programme. Now it is time to extract the image that the Russians have of Iran in the field of nuclear affairs. While revealing the Russians' behavioural logic, this image can help us predict their possible actions and reactions.

Russians' Understanding Based on Circumstances

Naturally, and also based on their intention, the Russians have turned into an effective (although not decisive) element in the process of forming the international attitude towards Iran's nuclear file.

The Russian role in completing the reactor at the Bushehr [nuclear] power plant and providing its fuel has given this country a special position as an internal element of Iran's nuclear system. And by employing the Russians' potential, the Westerners have tried to at least prevent the completion of the last link in the chain of Bushehr's fuel cycle; this means feeding the reactor.

An analysis of the Russian experts' views shows that:

1. They believe that the official accusations against Iran concerning the violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT] are very few and unimportant. Suspicions and logical conclusions from Iran's measures are more than real reasons for the violation of the NPT. This is the reason why they have accepted that the fuss over Iran is more political than legal.

2. On the other hand, they consider Iran's behaviour to be suspect to some extent, and they believe that Iran's reactions to some of the proposals - proposals like the one suggested by the Russians, who said: "We will provide you with fuel, if you will stop building the uranium enrichment unit." - are the reasons for this matter. In this regard, they set forth examples such as: "At the moment, a factory is being built in Arak for the production of heavy water. Why does Iran need a heavy water reactor for peaceful nuclear energy? This reactor is needed to produce plutonium, not to supply the country's energy needs. These days, nobody builds such a reactor to provide commercial energy. This reactor produces plutonium, and plutonium is used to make nuclear weapons. Why in Esfahan and other regions...."

3. The Russians do not reject the theory that Iran is trying to achieve the technology and facilities of uranium enrichment so that, if necessary, it can withdraw from the NPT - like North Korea - and produce nuclear weapons; they even present reasons for its probability.

4. The Russians believe that the production of enriched uranium in Iran is not reasonable from an economic point of view and that (naturally) Iran has to resort to purchasing enriched uranium from other sources, like Russia. They believe that Iran's insistence on uranium enrichment - which is not reasonable from an economic point of view - only increases doubts about Iran's intentions.

5. The Russians believe that in the current circumstances, the Americans will not allow Iran to produce nuclear bombs at all and that they will also resort to violent measures, if necessary.

6. The Russians believe that it will take a long time (three to five years) until Iran can produce nuclear bombs.

7. The Russians believe that if Iran achieves uranium enrichment technology, then attacking Iran and even destroying Natanz might not solve the problem, because the Iranians will be able to continue their activity by building numerous small centre. Destroying these centres would be very difficult.

8- The Russians believe that since Iran finds the price of the Russian fuel to be high, a consortium can be formed for this matter. Of course, they consider Russia to be the axis of this consortium and intend to supply the necessary ore from Kazakhstan or possibly from Canada.

9. Some members of the Russian elite criticize the dual approach with Iran, and some of them find it to be a normal measure in international policy. Thus, there is no agreement among them in this respect.

10. There are some concerns about the possibility of the production of nuclear bombs in Iran, and they find the parallel progress of Iran's missile industries to be a threat even to their national security.

11. The Russians believe that regional and global conditions provide the Iranian authorities with the necessary motivation to achieve nuclear weapons.

12. The Russians find it difficult and even impossible to believe that the economic sanctions against Iran are effective, due to the fact that Iran enjoys a $20-billion foreign exchange reserve.

13. The Russians have doubts about totally defending Iran - first of all, because there are logical motivations for Iran to try to achieve nuclear weapons and, second, because they are not aware of the volume and depth of America's intelligence about Iran's nuclear programme. They believe that the fact that the Americans reveal their information bit by bit makes them unable to guess the amount of their information and the game that they are playing. Therefore, it is possible that after the Russians defend Iran, the Americans will reveal information that will make it impossible to defend Iran.

14. The Russian elite believe that because of Russia's direct benefits in Iran, this country has to be more active in the process of Iran's nuclear developments.

15. The Russians defend Iran achieving peaceful nuclear facilities, but they do not find it justifiable for Iran to resort to uranium enrichment. They evaluate any effort in this regard to be suspicious, and they stand next to the Americans and Europeans to confront this matter.

16. The Russians think it is too soon to refer Iran's file to the Security Council, and they believe that since the positions of Russia, Europe, and America have not been coordinated, this measure will lead to disagreements between these countries and make Iran exceed its demands.

The aforementioned items are the result of the extraction and analysis of the views of the Russian elite and can be used to understand the Russians' logic and the image they have in their minds.

Source: BBC Monitoring Middle East

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