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Angelides Identity Campaign Advised: ANALYSTS: DEMOCRAT NEEDS STRONG IMAGE

Posted on: Monday, 1 May 2006, 09:00 CDT

By Steven Harmon, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.

May 01--SACRAMENTO -- Political experts said Sunday that if Phil Angelides wants to have any lasting value from this weekend's party convention triumph he had better follow it up quickly with an ad campaign -- one that tells voters just who he is.

Angelides, the state treasurer from Sacramento, won the party's endorsement Saturday night by capturing two-thirds of nearly 2,000 delegates' votes. It was a crucial victory for a campaign reeling from polls showing him with double-digit deficits to his primary opponent, Steve Westly, the state controller from Atherton.

But with only five weeks until the June 6 primary, a majority of voters are undecided, and that gives Angelides an opportunity to make his first significant pitch as the party's pick, just as voters are tuning in.

"In a seat with both candidates not well-known and support for both is not that solid, I'd say having a brand name as the Democrats' choice is a great one to have," said Kam Kuwata, a Democratic consultant, who is not affiliated with either campaign. "It's potentially significant, but it's a one-day story unless the Democratic Party and the Angelides campaign broadcast it to a wider audience."

Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a political analyst for the USC School of Policy, Planning and Development, said: "Nobody knows either of the two; therefore an endorsement offers a voting cue" to Democratic primary voters.

Defining image

"The hemorrhaging for Angelides has stopped at least for a while," Jeffe said. "But Angelides should very quickly do a bio ad. He's got to define his image, where he's from, what his story is."

Angelides, who made millions of dollars as a developer, has been mired in recent polls behind Westly, who made his fortune as an early employee at eBay. Most attribute that to Westly's more aggressive TV ad campaign, thanks to a massive campaign war chest. But, Angelides can cut into Westly's advantage with an on-air campaign and with the help of an already strong volunteer force -- compliments of his support from labor -- that will get a boost in numbers and morale from the endorsement.

Those volunteers will aid in get-out-the vote efforts, predicted Tom Del Beccaro, GOP chairman of Contra Costa County and president of all GOP county chairs.

"Westly has all the numbers, a fresh face, and he's running commercials, but as important as it is to be on the air, he doesn't have a ground game to speak of," Del Beccaro said. "Angelides has got the organization, and that makes him formidable."

Angelides becomes the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to get the party endorsement in a contested primary since 1990 -- and Westly can find some comfort in what happened then.

That year, Dianne Feinstein, then San Francisco's mayor, lost out to then-Attorney General John VanDeKamp in the endorsement fight but wound up winning the primary vote. In a memorable campaign ad, she used footage of the convention-hall boos directed her way as a way to show she was a different kind of Democrat, said Bruce Cain, director for the University of California Center in Washington, D.C.

"You could argue that Westly could take this rejection as a sign he's a different kind of Democrat, a non-taxing moderate Democrat," Cain said. "So, what Phil gains in the way of core party support, Steve Westly gains by getting some distance from the liberal faithful."

Westly has succeeded, so far, in portraying himself as the more moderate candidate, and thus the one who can best beat Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

"He should keep doing what he's doing," said Barbara O'Connor, director of the Institute for the Study of Politics and the Media at California State University-Sacramento. "When Democrats sit down the day before they vote, that'll be the question they'll be asking themselves: Who can beat Schwarzenegger?"

Westly campaign press secretary Nick Velasquez conceded that Angelides "might have got a teeny, tiny bump," but stressed that voters still view Westly as the party's best chance to oust Schwarzenegger.

"Yes, Angelides got this endorsement, so now, he's on life support, where he would have been finished if he got no endorsement," Velasquez said. "Angelides is brimming with negativity: in his speech, even in his victory speech, he took a shot at Westly. His stridency doesn't resonate with voters."

But Angelides communications director Dan Newman said Saturday night's victory -- 67.2 percent to 28.1 percent -- is a "powerful statement about both candidates."

Westly defeat

"We have the resources to communicate with voters via paid media," Newman said, "but there's a lesson about money in politics. It was a stinging defeat for Steve Westly, who's learning money can't buy you love."

Angelides still has to prove his message, which includes taxing the wealthy and pouring more resources into state services, resonates with voters, said O'Connor.

"It gives him a good bounce, though the concern is the party faithful is too far ahead of mainstream voters," O'Connor said. "While the endorsement gives him bodies on the ground, access to party money and positive press, there has to be a concern of not tracking too liberal."

Still, the gulf between party delegates and primary voters may not be that great, said Kuwata, the campaign manager for Feinstein, the U.S. senator who has endorsed Angelides.

"Primaries are dominated by people who hold stronger core beliefs than the general electorate," Kuwata said. "You have to be really committed to vote in the primary."

Contact Steven Harmon at sharmon@cctimes.com or (916) 441-4601.

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Copyright (c) 2006, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.

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Source: San Jose Mercury News

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