Pentagon Poised for Next Step If ‘Surge’ Fails ; Gates Testifies of Strategy to Get ‘Out of Harm’s Way’

By Peter Spiegel

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates acknowledged Tuesday that Pentagon planners were considering alternative war plans if the current buildup of forces in Iraq failed to quell ongoing violence in Baghdad. He said the new administration strategy “is not the last chance” to salvage the war-torn country.

Although he insisted that the Bush administration would give the new offensive, or “surge,” time and funding, Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee that if it did not show the hoped-for results, the military likely would shift its efforts to a strategy that would be centered on moving U.S. troops “out of harm’s way.”

“I think that if this operation were not to succeed — and we clearly are hoping it will succeed, planning for it to succeed, allocating the resources for it to succeed — but I would tell you that I think I would be irresponsible if I weren’t thinking about what the alternatives might be if that didn’t happen,” Gates testified.

Before Tuesday, Bush administration officials had refused to discuss what steps they might take if President Bush’s new strategy, involving 21,500 extra troops, were to fail, arguing that the strategy must be implemented first. But many congressional critics believe that the new plan has little chance of success.

Meanwhile, Democrats disclosed plans for a House vote next week on a nonbinding measure critical of Bush’s troop surge after the Senate last week fell 11 votes short of cutting off debate on a similar measure.

In the Senate, Democrats unveiled two bills that would push the president toward a troop withdrawal.

“The only people who believe there is a workable military solution for the conflict in Iraq is the Bush administration,” Sen. John F. Kerry, D-Mass., said in announcing legislation that would require Bush to “complete the redeployment” of American troops within a year.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, a Democratic presidential hopeful, joined two House members in proposing a measure to block Bush from implementing his planned troop increase, and to begin a withdrawal by May 1, with all combat brigades out by March 31, 2008.

Although Gates did not detail the Pentagon’s thinking on a post- surge plan, his acknowledgment that such a scenario would include a shift of troops out of heavy combat areas appeared to lend support to Democratic calls to immediately move U.S. forces into more secure locations — perhaps in Kuwait or northern Kurdish areas of Iraq.

It also was a stance much more in line with recommendations issued in December by the Iraq Study Group, a collection of former government officials that at one time included Gates. The panel called for a stepped-up effort to train Iraqi forces and for a gradual withdrawal of U.S. combat troops.

Gates also appeared to embrace a recommendation by the group that has been supported by congressional Democrats: the threat to withdraw financial or political support from the Iraqi government if it does not live up to its commitments.

Gates said the Bush administration was drawing up a detailed checklist of benchmarks it will use to judge the Iraqi government’s commitment to the strategy, adding “there is always the potential of withholding assistance” if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki fails to deliver on his promises.

Still, Gates expressed optimism that the new security plan was off to a positive start.

Gates reiterated his view that the increase in troops would be needed only for several months, telling Sen. Robert C. Byrd, D- W.Va., he believed that withdrawals of U.S. forces could begin before year’s end.

“It seems to me that if the plan to quiet Baghdad is successful and the Iraqis step up,” Gates said, “I would hope we would be able to begin drawing down our troops later this year.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.1

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