Mountain Economy Discussed

By Joe Nelson, San Bernardino County Sun, Calif.

Jul. 14–LAKE ARROWHEAD — In the long run, Big Bear Lake may fare better economically if it has an 18-hole golf course.

Better roads can accommodate an influx of traffic for the approximately 20,000 new residents expected to move into local mountain communities by the year 2030.

And with prolonged drought conditions making water extremely scarce, residents should be more prudent when it comes to consuming it.

These were some of the points Redlands-based regional economist John Husing made Friday at an inaugural mountain economic summit at the Lake Arrowhead Resort and Spa, forecasting a mostly optimistic outlook for mountain communities over the next two decades.

The event, Chambers in Action, was hosted by the Crestline, Lake Arrowhead, Running Springs and Big Bear Lake chambers of commerce. It focused on current and projected future demographics, housing trends, employment, retail sales, education and law enforcement in local mountain communities.

A DVD presentation by the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors on the state of the county’s economic vitality and growth potential preceded Husing’s PowerPoint presentation. According to projections, the next 10-year census will find that San Bernardino County has grown by more than a half-million people and more than 150,000 households.

In local mountain communities, the population grew from about 35,000 to about 55,000 between 1990 and 2000, and by about 7,800 between 2000 and the present.

By 2030, about 80,000 people are expected to be living in the local mountains, Husing said.

According to 2000 census data, 27 percent of the housing stock in the local mountains was documented as rental property, but by 2030 it is anticipated that most of that property will be snatched up by people wanting to make the mountains their home, Husing said.

When it comes to jobs, the average pay in local mountain communities is $29,000, while average annual pay in the San Bernardino Valley is $39,000. With limited commercial growth potential in the mountains, combined with few high-paying jobs, the majority of residents will continue to have to commute down the mountain to work, prompting the need for road infrastructure.

“A good deal of the economy is based on commuters and tourists, so the road system that has been a mess in the last few years is crucial to the economy,” Husing said.

Because mountain resort areas are popular places for conventions and meetings, Big Bear Lake could benefit from an 18-hole golf course, providing another recreational activity that can draw in more people and serve as a good marketing tool, Husing said.

“You are in an environment with incredible resources that allows you to be incredibly prosperous,” Husing said.

And folks moving into the mountains will have to become savvy about the ecological needs of the area regarding water conservation and defensible space around their homes due to the prolonged drought that has created extreme fire danger.

Many of those in attendance Friday found the summit informative.

“(Husing’s) numbers reflect what we imagined would happen in the next 10 years,” said Alan Sharp of the Big Bear Marina, who serves on the Big Bear Lake Chamber of Commerce Board of Directors. “We’re going to see our population grow. There’s going to be more pressure on our infrastructure.

Skyforest residents Hugh and Lori Bialecki are also concerned about mountain roads being able to accommodate the influx of traffic in the future.

“The question is how do you manage that and what are the limits?” Hugh Bialecki said. “You’ve got a limited infrastructure that you can’t really expand significantly.”

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