Global Warming’s Impact on Montana

By Furniss, Shannon

Unexpected Impacts on Montana’s Economy Montana’s summers will be longer and winters shorter. Fishing season will start earlier. We won’t have to shovel driveways or snowplow the roads as often. Early spring blizzards that kill off livestock will happen only once in awhile. In 30 years, when temperatures have risen 2 degrees due to climate changes, Montana will probably be better off than its southern neighbors. In fact, our slate may see increased migration trends as people come to Montana to cool off.

"That’s an interesting spin on global warming," says Steve Running, a University of Montana climate scientist who is one of a handful of American scientists and the only Montanan asked to author the climate change section of the report on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Published in February, the report examines climate change in North America.

"Montana tends to be kind of a cold place, and it’s getting nicer by most people’s standards," Running says.

While the idea of warmer weather might be appeal ing to some, things like drought, water shortages, and increasing wildfires during the summer months are not so desirable.

In a recent roundtable discussion, Steve Running and economists, industry experts, and editors from the Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) and UM’s Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) discussed climate changes and warming trends that are occurring in Montana. Industry experts then interpreted what these climate changes might mean for the state’s important industries: tourism, forest products, energy, agriculture, and health care. The roundtable included: Steve Running, UM climate scientist; Paul Polzin, BBER director; Norma Nickerson, ITRR director; Charles Keegan and Todd Morgan, director and assistant director of forest products industry research; Pat Barkey, BBER director of health care industry research; Julie Ehlers, BBER marketing director; and, Shannon Furniss, Montana Business Quarterly editor.

After the fact, industry experts contributed additional information, opinions, and speculation for this article. Daphne Herling, director of community relations for BBER and Montana Kids Count, provided valuable information about health-related issues. Vince Smith, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics at Montana State University, and Luther Talbert, MSU professor in the Plant Sciences and Plant Pathology Department, provided information for the agriculture section.

Climate Changes

In Montana, the most noticeable signals for climate change include an earlier snow melt, an earlier start to the spring growing season, and a more pronounced mid-summer drought period, Running says.

Thirty years ago, snow melts occurred around the beginning of April. In recent years, they have occurred in midMarch. In 30 years – the time period set for the discussion – snow melts will occur in late February if this trend continues. The growing season currently begins a month earlier than it did 30 years ago, and summers are longer, hotter, and drier with lower river flows and more wildfires. Over the next 30 years, temperatures will be about 2 degrees warmer.

Some climate models suggest that Montana’s precipitation will increase from its average of about one inch per month. Increased precipitation will not offset higher temperatures, though, and drought will be based on a hotter, drier climate, Running says. Montana could end up with more seasonality – a little more precipitation in the winter and a little less in the summer.

"In the West, in the warm mountains like the Cascades, they’re already seeing a greater percentage of rain than snow in the winter," he says. "For us, that hasn’t occurred so much."

Dramatic climate changes are certainly evident in Montana’s Glacier National Park (see photos below). The glaciers have receded rapidly since the park’s establishment in 1910, primarily due to long-term changes in regional climate. These changes include warming, particularly of daily minimum temperatures, and persistent droughts. Some scientists predict that the glaciers in Glacier National Park will disappear within the next 30 years.

Climate changes are occurring on plains and in mountains – at all elevation levels, Running says. After studying 50-year historical trends for towns on the east and west sides of the state, Running discovered that temperature trends are pretty consistent across the state, and he says he has no reason to expect them to be dramatically different.

So what impact, if any, will these global warming trends have on Montana’s basic industries?

Grinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould 1938 – 2006

Tourism

Around 10 million people visit Montana every year to fish, hunt, snowmobile, ski, sightsee, and visit friends and family, generating millions of dollars per year for the state’s economy.

Spring and Summer

Temperature changes have already had an impact on Montana’s tourism industry, and this trend will continue to accelerate in the next 30 years. We’ve already experienced streams and rivers running so low that the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks has been forced to close them to fishing. Forests and recreation areas have been closed due to wildfire danger. Wildfires are probably our No. 1 problem, with de-watering of our streams coming in second. At press time, many Montana rivers had already been closed to afternoon and evening fishing. Record-breaking temperatures caused these closures earlier in the summer than in previous years.

One way tourism-based businesses have coped with midsummer drought and forest fires is to encourage people to come to Montana earlier. Fishing outfitters are starting in March, a month earlier than usual. It’s warmer in March and smoky skies and dry rivers aren’t usually a threat until later in the summer. Other businesses might consider pushing their active seasons earlier.

Winter

The 2005-2006 season was a good snow year for Montana’s ski resorts, with nearly 1.3 million skier visits. The previous year was a bad snow year, with just under 1 million skier visits. Ski resorts will continue to be vulnerable as the climate changes. For example, many locals grew up skiing at Marshall Mountain just outside of Missoula. Marshall struggled with snow cover for years and finally closed several years ago. All resorts will likely experience a shorter season; ski areas might be wise to think about summer recreation opportunities like hiking and mountain biking to offset the shorter winter.

Forest Products

Global warming will increase forest growth throughout Montana, Running says.

"Right now most of our forest land tends to be in temperature- limited ecosystems rather than water-limited. The 30-year window we’re talking about is probably the bit of good news. But as you get to the drier end of the forest, it’s going to be all about water, not temperature."

Water shortages won’t be our only concern. As forests become more dense, disease, insects, and drought will likely become more of a threat. Weak, overstocked forests also provide more fuel for fire (see sidebar on page 6 for more on fire). "Thinning trees will become a pivotal part of forest economics," Running says.

In British Columbia, a massive mountain pine beetle epidemic has affected millions of acres of forest land. Pine bears, wolves, and mountain lions.

Some niche species may be in trouble some years from now. Wolverines, which den in the snow, are already in trouble. The southern populations of wolverines in the Sierra Mountains are already becoming extinct.

Over the next 30 years, hunters will probably see more game than before. There will probably be less winterkill because latewinter blizzards will no longer wipe out herds by the thousands.

Watch out for bears, though. Bears may spend less time hibernating and more time eating from their favorite huckleberry patch and rummaging through garbage cans.

Fall

Wildlife watching and hunting bring many tourists to Montana. While penguins and polar bears may suffer the effects of global warming (in their case, possible extinction), it shouldn’t have too much impact on our state’s wildlife on the 30-year horizon. Luckily, our wildlife – particularly in the mountains – can just go up in elevation as the temperature rises. So, tourists can still come to see deer, elk, bison, beetles and other insects have attacked Montana’s forests over the years. While it seems logical to tie increasing insect populations to global warming, there are no solid studies proving it to be the case. Further research would probably determine that there is a link.

To ensure healthy, vigorous trees, forest managers should choose more southern sources for seed stock so that the trees we plant will be better adapted to a warmer climate. They also need to be diligent about thinning and density regulation, Running says.

The Bureau’s forest industry researchers indicated that increased growth rates in Montana’s forests could increase the volume of timber products available. Larger, more intense wildfires and increased insect activities could lead to higher levels of tree mortality, which, over the long term, might offset increased forest growth.

Treating forests to reduce density, adjust species composition, and change structure could produce considerable volumes of timber for industrial products or energy. Montana’s forest products industry has seen considerable loss in infrastructure over the last 15 years, due primarily to reduced harvests on national forest lands. Ironically, as forests have grown more dense due to climate changes, ongoing controversy has made thinning, density regulation, and harvesting very difficult on national forests, which represent the majority of forest lands in Montana. Growing recognition of the need to treat forests could lead to greater acceptance of treatments, producing more resilient forest conditions and increasing the volume of wood available for forest products and biomass energy.

Forest management will become even more complex and challenging, with opportunities to apply more sophisticated forest management regimes and logging operations. This could lead to a need for more workers in the forest with new skills and knowledge.

Agriculture

With 56.5 million acres of farmland, agriculture is Montana’s largest industry, generating an average of $2 billion annually in cash receipts. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability, so rising temperatures could h;e significant impacts.

The trouble with predicting what might happen is that if climate changes do occur, there could be two different scenarios: 1 . It could be warmer and wetter; 2. It could be warmer and drier.

If Montana becomes warmer and wetter and increased CO2 concentrations improve crop and forage yields, the state’s agricultural production will expand, and agriculture will likely become more diverse. Wheat is Montana’s leading crop because it is most drought-resis tant. Warmer, wetter weather might allow us to grow different types of crops such as soybeans and more varieties of corn.

Warmer, drier weather would be bad news for farmers and ranchers. Montana already has drought issues. In the last several years, the heat has been hard on spring wheat, and we may begin to see a shift toward winter wheat. Certainly, any trend that would cause less precipitation would be a problem. A drier climate would bring water shortages and not much change in crop variety.

Whether global warming causes Montana’s climate to become warmer and wetter or warmer and drier, agronomic conditions will change. Soil science and range management research and education is needed to enable both crop producers and livestock operators to improve their economic performance.4

Energy

Montana should see a stunning realignment of energy sources in upcoming years. Renewable sources such as solar energy, wind power, and biomass fuels will become increasingly important as we try to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Carbon retains solar heat that would otherwise radiate away.

On the forefront of wind energy is the Judith Gap Energy Center, with 90 wind turbines that line both sides of Highway 191 between Harlowtown and Judith Gap. Each turbine can create enough power to supply about 600 homes with power.5

"Wind power is the most efficient way to make electricity. The fuel costs are extremely low, the technology is mature, and maintenance of the machines is a manageable expense," says the energy center’s manager Phil Stiles.

is currently only 1 or 2 percent of the national energy supply, but it could easily be 40 percent as the number of turbines increase throughout the United States, Stiles says.

Future Technologies

Several technologies on the horizon might help reduce carbon emissions and slow global warming.

Carbon sequestration is the process of removing additional carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in other "reservoirs" such as forests, soils, oceans, or underground in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, coal seams, and saline aquifers.

Scientists, governments, and energy companies are getting excited about carbon sequestration because they see it as a way to cut emissions without interrupting our energy supply.6 For example, in the United States half the electricity generated comes from coal, which is a major source of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions. If fumes from coal plants could be "sequestered," or pumped deep into the ground, we might prevent them from spewing CO2 into the atmosphere.

Forests play an important role in reducing greenhouse gases, absorbing CO2 from the air and storing it in tree trunks, branches, foliage, and roots. In the United States, forests sequester approximately 200 to 280 million tons of carbon per year, offsetting 10 to 20 percent of our country’s emissions from fossil fuels.7

Ethanol is an alternative fuel that some say might help wean the United States from its dependence on oil. Currently, half of the nearly 1 1 billion bushels of corn produced each year is turned into ethanol, and most new cars are capable of running on E10 (10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline.)8

Cellulosic ethanol is also promising. Conventional ethanol and cellulosic ethanol are the same product but are produced using different feedstocks and processes. Conventional ethanol is derived from grains such as corn and wheat or soybeans. Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from agricultural plant wastes, plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp), and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass. Cellulosic ethanol exhibits a net energy content three times higher than corn ethanol and emits a low net level of greenhouse gases.

The market outlook for ethanol shows strong potential.9 Because of the variety of feedstocks that can be used, ethanol may offer opportunities for new jobs and economic growth outside the traditional grain belt.

Thin-film solar is another technology with tremendous potential. "Few power-generation technologies have as little impact on the environment as photovoltaics. As it quietly generates electricity from light, PV produces no air pollution or hazardous waste. It doesn’t require liquid or gaseous fuels to be transported or combusted. And because its energy source – sunlight – is free and abundant, PV systems can guarantee access to electric power," according to the U.S. Department of Energy Web site.

Thin films of special photovoltaic material can produce solar cells with relatively high conversion efficiencies, while using much less material than traditional crystalline silicon cells. This new technology is currently being used on windows and roofs, and companies are scrambling to find other ways to use it creatively.

Health Care

Heat waves, hurricanes, torrential rain storms, and the spread of tropical diseases are sometimes associated with global warming. While Montana may have a few very hot days during the summer, we probably won’t have to deal with extreme weather issues or diseases like malaria, dengue fever, cholera, and leptospirosis, which hit Central America in 1988 after Hurricane Mitch dropped six feet of rain.

Figure 1

Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Burning off Fossil Fuels, by Region

But perhaps more subtle, gradual climate changes can affect human health. During the past two decades, asthma has quadrupled in the United States, partly due to climate-related factors.10 Allergy- related conditions may also be increasing due to change in allergens circulating from earlier blooms and/or increased air particulates from inversion and warming.

It is difficult to determine how global warming might impact Montana’s health care industry other than the fact that doctors may see more people with asthma and allergies. They may also treat more people with respiratory illnesses due to an increasing number of wildfires. But there are definitely some human health and comfort issues that are noteworthy.

In Montana, winter temperatures won’t be as cold, so those months will be safer for children and older people. On the flip side, there may be more demand for air conditioning. Green architecture will become very important as designers strive for energy-efficient, environmentally healthy homes and buildings.

Conclusion

Climate changes in Montana over the next 30 years will be subtle, but they will impact our industries in a variety of ways. We may see tourists visiting Montana earlier in the season; forests that are overstocked and more susceptible to insects, disease, and fire; a shift from spring wheat to winter wheat; more windmills and solar panels; more people with allergies and asthma.

What’s frustrating, Running says, is the fact that in 10 years we will probably have the technology to fix the global warming problem, but we might have trouble getting the international cooperation we need. Asian economies are growing rapidly, and carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are on a steep incline (Figure 1, page 7).

At the state level, we’ve taken some steps to deal with global warming. The 2007 Montana Legislature passed Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s "clean and green" energy proposal, which emphasizes "clean and green" coal development, carbon sequestration, wind power, and less dependence on foreign oil. Schweitzer says he envisions Montana as a leader in energy development.11

University of Montana President George Dennison has signed an initiative called the American College & University Climate Commitment. Dennison’s signature makes UM among the first 100 institutions in the nation to answer a call to action by pledging to reduce campus greenhouse gas emissions. The fact that UM climate scientist Steve Running is on the cutting edge of global warming research doesn’t hurt either.

Rising Temperatures Cause More Severe Fires

The impacts of climate changes have probably been the most obvious on Montana’s forests where there has been a fourfold increase in the number of wildfires and a six-fold increase in the acreage burned since 1986, Running says.

"It’s mostly because of climate change," Running says in a recent interview with Ian Marquand of KPAX-TV. "The forest is vulnerable to ignition for many more weeks every summer. When the landscape is completely dry, it’s just a matter of fires getting really big to where humans can’t control them any more." Before the Yellowstone Park fire of 1988, fires were rarely more than 50,000 acres, and they occurred every 20 to 30 years. The Yellowstone fire scorched 793,000 acres, or 36 percent of the park.2

"About every three years, we just have one of these meltdowns," Running says. "Every summer is becoming a higher probability of becoming a serious fire year."

In the last decade, drought, insect infestations, rising temperatures, and a growing number of homes being built in the wildland-urban interface have caused larger, more severe fires that are increasingly expensive to fight.3

In fact, the 10-year average firefighting cost for fiscal 2008 was $911 million, a 23 percent increase from last year. The Forest Service projects that costs could exceed $1 billion by 2009.

References

1 Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior (www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/ glaciers.htm).

2 National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior (www.nps.gov/yell/naturescience/wildlandfire.htm).

3 Backus, Perry. "Former FS Chiefs Say Fire Costs Eating Budget." Missoulian, May, 2007.

4 Smith, Vincent H. "The Challenge of Global Warming: Economic Issues for Montana." Montana State University.

5 Joyner, Amy. "The Sky’s The Limit: Wind Farms Supplement Traditional Montana Power Sources." Montana Business Quarterly, Autumn 2006.

6 Gumbel, Peter. "Global Warming: What Now?" Time magazine, April 9, 2007.

7 Goergen, Michael. "The Role of Forests in Climate Change." Testimony for the House Natural Resources Committee, May 1, 2007.

8 Park, Alice. "What Now?" Time magazine, April 9, 2007.

9 Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy (www.eere.energy.gov).

10 Epstein, Paul R. "Climate Change and Human Health," The New England Journal of Medicine, October 6, 2005.

11 www.governor.mt.gov.

Shannon Furniss is editor of the Montana Business Quarterly.

Copyright Bureau of Business and Economic Research Summer 2007