Manatee’s Rainfall Deficit Escalating
By Stacey Eidson, The Bradenton Herald, Fla.
Sep. 19–MANATEE — Walking past the creeks and water holes in Myakka City, Gary Russ, owner of Russ Citrus Groves, couldn’t help but notice the tremendous lack of rainfall this year.
“I can’t remember ever seeing the water levels this low this time of year,” Russ said, adding that the year-long drought has taken its toll on his citrus crops. “But it’s out of our control. All we can do is the best we can with what we have.”
Due to the lack of rain this summer, Russ said his trees haven’t experienced the normal amount of new growth or flush of citrus leaves. He is concerned that the lack of new growth may impact next year’s crop.
“The number of fruit we have on the trees right now was determined back in the spring when we weren’t having much rain,” Russ said. “Lately, I’ve been more concerned about the size of the fruit that we have on the trees and the lack of flush or new growth because we’ve been in a dry spell all year. It’s just one thing after another.”
The dry conditions in the area have kept Patrick Mahoney, a wildfire mitigation specialist for the Florida Division of Forestry in Bradenton, extremely busy during the past several days.
“Yesterday, last night and the day before, we were chasing lightning fires around,” Mahoney said on Tuesday. “It’s been constant.”
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across Manatee County during the remainder of this week, but it is unlikely the amount of precipitation will make up for the rainfall deficit, said meteorologist Rick Davis of the National Weather Service in Ruskin.
“So far for September, we received 2.3 inches of rain at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport,” Davis said. “That is 2.13 inches below normal. For the year, it’s even more telling. We’ve had 23.32 inches of rain so far this year. Normally, this area experiences 43.8 inches by September, so we are 20.48 inches below normal.”
Through Saturday, the National Weather Service has predicted Manatee County will have between a 50 to 60 percent chance of rain each day.
“The rainfall this week could possibly make up for the deficit for the month, but certainly not for the year,” Davis said. “Traditionally, our rainy season ends in September. So, starting in October, we will start drying out. Therefore, we need as much rain as we can get for the remainder of this month.”
Looking ahead, Davis said Manatee County residents should brace themselves for a dry winter that could continue into the spring.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has declared the onset of a La Nina episode, which refers to the periodic cooling of the ocean surface temperatures. La Nina conditions generally result in the southern states experiencing less precipitation, according to the NOAA.
“The La Nina conditions will further develop during the next three months,” Davis said. “Through November, temperatures are expected to be above normal, but the precipitation is also expected to be slightly above normal. However, for winter, the climate prediction center is calling for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. And that’s more typical for a La Nina winter for us.”
Robyn Hanke, spokeswoman for the Southwest Florida Water Management District, said Manatee County has only received about 25 percent of its average rainfall so far this month.
“And we are over halfway through the month, so Manatee is really behind,” Hanke said. “We were really hoping for above-average rainfall because we’ve been getting below-average precipitation consistently since January 2006. So over a year and a half now, our whole 16-county area has been dry. Now that they are predicting a La Nina, it definitely does not bode well for our drought conditions.”
During years with normal rainfall levels, the water management district allows a two-day-per-week watering schedule. But since the beginning of the year, the 16-county district has been under an emergency one-day-per-week watering restriction.
“The watering restrictions were set to expire in July, however during our July meeting, they were extended until the end of September,” Hanke said, adding that the governing board will decide Tuesday whether the restrictions should be extended again. “I would say it is highly likely they will be extending the restrictions past September.”
Stacey Eidson, Herald reporter, can be reached at 708-7908.
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