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June 15, 2012

Big Story Weather – June 15, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from June 14: A few tornadoes were reported in Kansas and Colorado yesterday. There was significant wind damage all the way from Minnesota southwestward back into Oklahoma and Texas. A second area of strong thunderstorms developed along the Northern Gulf Coast from Florida and traveled all the way over into Louisiana. The storms in Alabama did significant damage to homes and trees. The largest hail report came from Nebraska with hail estimated over 2 inches.

Big Story Weather Outlook for June 15: An easterly wave moving through the Northern Gulf will bring afternoon thunderstorms to the region. Expect some thunderstorms to have damaging winds and heavy rain. Low pressure back over in the Southern Plains will be the target for severe weather today as the thunderstorms begin to spread northward into the Northern Plains by evening. Northeast and Northwest along with the Southwest will enjoy a nice day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Big Story Weather Outlook International: Typhoon Guchol is the big news in the  Western Pacific as it continues to track towards Japan. A frontal boundary will again bring showers from Eastern China eastward across Southern Japan. Look for another warm and dry day for the Middle East region. Low pressure continues to influence the weather over England and will spread showers into Eastern Europe today.  Southeast Australia will also be see showers and thunderstorms with the passing low to the southeast of the area. The rest of Australia will see partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Big Story Oceans for June 15, 2012:

This morning we are watching Typhoon Guchol as it continues to gain strength and make its turn towards the North. This will put the storm on path to impact the island of Okinawa Japan with very strong winds, high seas and heavy rainfall. Currently estimated winds are around 90kts and a pressure near 956mb.

Tropical Storm Carlotta has also intensified and should reach CAT 1 strength later today as it makes its way towards the coast of Mexico. Estimated winds are around 60kts with a pressure of 993mb. This storm has to be watched as it starts to interact with Mexico it may reform over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

91W has just started to show enhanced thunderstorm development sitting in the Tropical Western Pacific estimated winds is around 15kts with a pressure near 1010mb.

ENSO WATCH: Currently in the Neutral Phase

(Sea surface chart courtesy of F-5 data)(Analysis by Meteorologist Joshua Kelly)

This morning we see temps off the Coast of Peru around 20-22C, however if we look just to the west we can start to see the 24-26C temps starting to close in on the coast. Back over in the French Polynesia we see the temps around 28C with a slight shift east of the 28C temps. Hawaii is looking at temps in the 24C on the south facing shores and 22 right on the north side of the islands.

A neat feature to look at is if you see how the warmer temps are setting up in a line from the French Polynesia northeastward into Mexico and then into the Gulf of Mexico. This could very well be the staging point for our low pressure systems later this year to track along the warmer waters.