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June 20, 2012

Big Story Weather – June 20, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from June 19: Severe weather was found expanding through the Northern Plains with hail and damaging winds being the biggest threat. Hail the size of 2.5 inches was found in Central Minnesota. The strongest winds of the day were found in Michigan with many reports of winds in the 70-78 mph range. Also, the third tropical storm of the Atlantic Season formed in the Northern Atlantic. At this time is not expected to impact any land.

Big Story Weather Outlook for June 20: High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard is going to make for a very warm day from Maine southward into Florida and over the Gulf Coast. Temps in the Mid Atlantic may be closing in on 100 degrees F. A frontal boundary extending through the Mississippi River valley will bring some strong to severe weather to places from Arkansas to the Great Lakes. High pressure over the West will keep conditions tranquil throughout the region.

Big Story Weather International Outlook: The remains of Tropical Storm Guchol will bring strong winds and scattered showers to a good portion of Japan for the remainder of the day. Also another Tropical system is bringing heavy rain to Southeast China.  High pressure will provide a warm and dry day for the Middle East today.  High pressure is beginning to build in over Australia making for a quiet weather pattern across the country.

Big Story Weather Tropics: Tropical Storm Chris has formed in the North Atlantic and at this time poses no threat to land, but will need to be watched over time. Estimated winds are near 45kts and pressure near 1005mb. In the Pacific we have Tropical Storm Talim which is currently sitting off the coast of China and over top of Taiwan bringing with it heavy rains and very strong winds. Estimated pressure is around 989mb with winds near 45kts. Elsewhere there is currently a tropical low pressure center sitting south of Cuba which continues to bring heavy rainfall to the area. This system really needs to be watched as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico.  Another Low (95E) is showing signs of strengthening and may become tropical over the next day with current winds estimated around 25kts and pressure around 1005mb. The final area is another low (93W) which is sitting southwest of Guam with an estimated wind around 15kts and pressure near 1010mb.

OCEAN WATCH:  Gulf of Mexico

(Sea surface chart courtesy of F-5 data)(Analysis by Meteorologist Joshua Kelly)

Today we evaluate the Gulf of Mexico water temps as the area of low pressure that has developed south of Cuba is sitting in waters around 29-30C which is plenty warm for tropical development. As we look further into the Gulf it can be noted that temps throughout the Gulf are supportive of tropical development so the chances for this system to develop into a tropical are pretty good based off the ocean water temps alone.