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August 23, 2012

Big Story Weather – August 23, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from August 22: The big news from yesterday was the very heavy rainfall that encompassed the Southwest portion of the United States where flash flooding was reported and is still occurring. A patch of frost was forecasted for the overnight hours in Southern Oregon. The drier conditions have again led to fire watches for the Northern Rockies along with the Northern Plains. A fairly tranquil day with few severe weather reports. A few hail reports were found in South Dakota associated with an area of thunderstorms that moved through overnight.

Big Story Weather Outlook for August 23: High pressure moving across the Mid-Atlantic region will bring very nice conditions from Cleveland eastward into the big cities of New York and Baltimore along with DC. Temps will range from the lower 80´s to mid 80´s across the region. A few thunderstorms will still be found in the Carolina´s and also afternoon thunderstorms throughout Florida. The backside of the high will bring partly cloudy skies into the Ohio River valley and also southward to places like Mobile where high temps will be in the upper 80´s. A new developing low over the Southern plains will bring partly cloudy skies and temps into the lower 90´s for places like Dallas. The frontal system will spawn thunderstorms from Kansas northward into Iowa and northeastward towards the Great Lakes. The southwest will be under the monsoonal flow again today bringing with it very heavy rain and flash flooding. The remainder of the west will be dry and cooler as temps will only be in the lower 70´s for Portland Oregon and also the potential for frost to form in the Southern part of the state overnight tonight.

Big Story Weather International Outlook: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over Japan and the Korea´s bringing partly cloudy skies to the region. The typhoons continue to turn up the waters south of Okinawa and nearing Taiwan over the next couple of days bringing heavy rain and strong winds. The monsoonal rains will continue over Southeast Asia today. High pressure will bring dry weather to places from Italy towards the Middle East and northward into Germany. Look for a weak low pressure area to the south of England bringing cloudy skies to the region. A strong low pressure area is moving south of Australia bringing with it increasing showers to the south central portion of Australia.

Big Story Weather Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Isaac continues to churn in the Atlantic moving near Puerto Rico with winds estimated near 40kts with an estimated pressure of 1004mb. Isaac will continue to move westward for the next few days before making a slow turn to the northwest and head towards Cuba by this weekend. Isaac is forecasted to then enter back into the Gulf and become a CAT 1 Hurricane as it makes its way up the West Coast of Florida towards a possible landfall in the panhandle. If you live anywhere from New Orleans to the Southwestern tip of Florida you need to be watching the track of this storm closely over the next few days because any wobble in the storm will put a whole new area in the zone. Make sure to check back this afternoon as we will have a detailed discussion on Isaac. Also in the Atlantic we have Tropical Depression #10 which is forecasted to become a tropical storm later today or early tomorrow as winds are currently estimated to be around 30kts and a pressure of 1007mb.

Eastern Pacific Basin: No concern in this basin today.

Western Pacific Basin: Typhoon Tembin has intensified to around 105kts with a pressure of 944mb making it a very strong Typhoon and possibly becoming a Super Typhoon soon as it continues to track towards the Southern part of Taiwan. Typhoon Bolaven is on a crash course for Okinawa Japan. As of this morning the winds were estimated to be around 100kts with a pressure of 948mb and this storm is also forecasted to intensify to near Super-Typhoon strength as it makes its way towards Okinawa Japan.

Climate Watch for the period of August 18-22:

Is it just me or have the Climate Changers gone to a rest again. Or maybe it´s because they have yet again been shown that it´s just a cycle the Earth goes through. Looking at the numbers above would make one think we are going into a global cool down. However, it´s nothing more than the cycles as we are now heading into a cooler cycle period here in the United States.

Cleveland OH: Has seen temps running about 4-6 degrees below average with the 22nd temps returning to about 2 degrees above normal.

Mobile AL: Temps have been running 1-10 degrees below average for the entire period.

Dallas TX: The region has been seeing temps run about 2-7 degrees below average with the exception being on the 21st temps actually were 15 degrees below average.

Sioux Falls SD: The period started out cold with temps running 4-10 degrees below average followed by the last two days running 4-14 degrees above average.

Portland OR: Cool temps for the entire period as they have been 2-6 degrees below average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Aug 23, 2012:

Day 1-3: The largest impacts are going to be the heavy rainfall that is spreading through the Southwest where there will be flash flooding events each day. Rainfall amounts may exceed 6 inches for many places creating very fast moving streams that are usually dry. So be careful when crossing these regions.

Day 1-3: Southern Oregon may be dealing with frost covered conditions in the higher elevations as overnight temps may reach the 30-34F range creating a touch of frost on crops.

Day 4-8:  The potential for a land-falling hurricane in the Florida panhandle is High. Large impacts such as power outages along with heavy rain, very strong winds and storm surge will impact the region.