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September 5, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 5, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 4: Another warm day from the Southern Plains into the Western Gulf of Mexico region as temps soared into the upper 90´s and lower 100´s with heat index values over 105 for many places. Heavy rains developed through the afternoon from Western Alabama, Florida Panhandle and also Eastern Mississippi. All of this was associated with a piece of energy from Isaac that is making its way southward and back towards the Gulf of Mexico. Severe weather yesterday brought 1 tornado into the WI area, and multiple damaging wind reports from Eastern South Dakota through Iowa and into Illinois and parts of WI. Another pocket of severe weather developed over Kansas with multiple reports of wind damage and this area extended into the panhandle of Texas. A third area developed in Central Mississippi associated with the low moving southward.

Big Story Weather Outlook for September 5: Low pressure and the associated cold front continue to drape across the Northeast bringing with it showers and thunderstorms to the region, while in Cleveland look for partly cloudy skies with high temp in the lower 80´s. An area of low pressure (Isaac's remains) will move through Alabama and Southeastern Mississippi today bringing periods of very heavy rain to the region. Places in the Southeast will also be dealing with afternoon thunderstorms. Orlando will be dealing with high temps in the mid 80´s. High pressure will be in control of the weather over the Northern Plains and Rockies. A few afternoon thunderstorms may develop around the Topeka area where high temps will be in the mid 90´s. Also look for the heat to spread southward into Oklahoma and parts of Texas where temps may hit the upper 90´s with heat index values in the 100´s. High pressure will bring nice conditions to the Billings Montana area where high temps will be in the lower 80´s.The monsoonal low will be bringing moisture back into portions of the Southwest, while partly cloudy skies will prevail for places like Los Angeles and the rest of the West Coast as high temps hit the lower 80´s.

Big Story Weather International Outlook:
High pressure over the Tibetan plateau will expand eastward into Japan and Korea bringing with it partly cloudy skies. The monsoonal trough will be in place over Pakistan and India again today bringing with it more heavy rain. High pressure over Western Europe will bring partly cloudy skies to the majority of Europe today and also into England. High pressure will also be moving into the southern portion of South America and the low pressure to the south will create a very strong pressure gradient which means the winds will be blowing strong in the area. Low pressure over Southeastern Australia will bring showers to the region, while a weak high pressure begins to move into the Western portion which will bring partly cloudy skies to the area.

Big Story Weather Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Leslie continues to turn in the Atlantic south of Bermuda with winds near 55kts and a pressure of 992mb. Leslie will strengthen into a hurricane within the next 48 hrs and continue a slow movement towards Bermuda and will also start bringing higher surf to the East Coast of the US. Tropical Storm Michael is just to the east of Leslie and will slowly strengthen and stay to the east as pressure this morning is around 1005mb with winds near 45kts. Also a low pressure (Isaac) has started moving southward across Alabama and is bringing torrential rains to Southeast Mississippi, Western Alabama and the panhandle of Florida this area needs to be watched as it moves back out over the Gulf later today.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression John continues to move northward over colder waters and will continue to weaken as estimated pressure is near 1006mb with winds around 30kts.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however waters in the Tropical Pacific are still showing signs of warming indicating that EL-Nino could be setting this month or early next month. We will have to continue to watch these conditions as they will play a major impact on the United States winter weather patterns along with other places around the globe.

Climate Watch for the period of August 31- September 4:
A slight warming trend prevailed across a good portion of the United States the past few days.

Cleveland OH: Started the period 13 degrees above average and has stayed above average the entire period except for the 4th they were right at average.

Orlando FL: Average to very slightly above average for the entire period.

Topeka KS: Started the period out about 3 degrees below average and since then has been warming to 4-7 degrees above average followed by a stronger push of warm air ranging in the 13-15 degree above average area.

Billings MT: The area has been above average by 5-10 degrees with a slight cooler period of 1 degree on the 4th.

Los Angeles CA: The region was 1-3 degrees above average followed by a 1 degree below average day on the 3rd and then a 6 degree above average day on the 4th.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Sep 5, 2012:

Day 1-3: The frontal boundary continues to push off the East Coast bringing moderate rain to the region. We are also looking at an emerging low pressure (Isaac) heading out into the Gulf today. It is creating heavy rain for Southeast Mississippi and Western Alabama and the Florida panhandle today.

Day 4-7: A strong cold front will begin to move through the eastern 2/3 of the country bringing with it some severe weather and also possibly the coolest weather that we have seen in a while. The potential landfall of Leslie in the Southeastern portion of Canada will occur around day 7.

Day 8-12: Look for a continuation of the monsoonal rains through the southwest and high pressure to dominate a good portion of the United States during this time period.

Day 13-15: Another approaching tropical system will be in the Atlantic moving towards the west during this time period.