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September 6, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 6, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Afternoon Tropical Update for September 6, 2012:

Tropics: This afternoon we still see that the low pressure which has moved into the Northern Gulf has a moderate chance of becoming a tropical system. However, time is limited as there is a strong cold front about to approach the region. Estimated winds are around 25kts with a pressure of 1009mb as of this afternoon.

Hurricane Leslie continues to turn towards Bermuda with estimated winds around 65kts and a pressure of 985mb this afternoon. Leslie is forecasted to strengthen into a CAT2 storm before making landfall into Bermuda this weekend.

The big story of the afternoon is dealing with Hurricane Michael, luckily it is in the Atlantic not affecting anyone this afternoon as it is now a powerful Major Hurricane Cat 3 with winds estimated around 100kts and a pressure of 964mb. Michael should remain in the Atlantic and be no for seen impact to land at this time.


Big Story Weather from September 5: The heat in the Southern Plains sent the heat index values back into the 103-108F range. Thunderstorms along the frontal boundary moving through the Ohio River valley brought wind damage along with hail reports for places like Memphis, along with Southern Illinois and Indiana. A second area of strong wind damage occurred in the Texas and Oklahoma region right along the border. Amarillo, Texas saw wind gusts as has high as 75 mph, with a 78 mph wind gust in Ardmore, Oklahoma.

Big Story Weather Outlook for September 6: High pressure building in over the Midwest will bring partly cloudy skies from Chicago eastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Also look for high temps in New York to reach the lower 80´s under partly cloudy skies. Isaac remains are developing in the Northern Gulf leading to partly cloudy skies and scattered showers again along the Gulf Coast for places like Gulfport, MS where high temps will be in the upper 80´s. High pressure to the east of the area will bring partly cloudy skies to places like Sioux Falls where high temps will hit the lower 80´s. The monsoonal low over the Southwest will bring a few scattered showers to the region, otherwise look for the west and west coast to be under partly cloudy skies today for places like San Diego and Portland.

Big Story Weather International Outlook: A frontal boundary extending through Japan will bring scattered showers to the region. The monsoonal trough will bring heavy rain to places like India and Pakistan again today. High pressure will dominate the majority of Europe from west to east, while an area of low pressure will bring scattered showers to England again today. High pressure will influence the weather for the majority of South America today. A frontal boundary extending over  Eastern Australia will bring showers to places like Sydney, while high pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the western side of Australia to places like Perth.

Big Story Weather Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Hurricane Leslie has winds this morning of 65kts and a pressure of 985mb as it continues to strengthen and move towards Bermuda. It will bring hurricane force winds to the island of Bermuda over the weekend. Hurricane Michael has developed well overnight and now has winds near 95kts and a pressure of 968mb. This storm will continue to move towards the north and then slightly northwest over the next few days. A low pressure pushing of the Alabama coast into the Gulf has been given a 50% chance of development back into a new tropical system (Isaac leftovers). This morning winds are around 25kts with a pressure of 1009mb.

Eastern Pacific: A quiet day in the basin as nothing major is expected to develop over the next 24 hrs.

Western Pacific: A tranquil day across this basin outside of just some areas of convection, nothing major expected to develop over the next 24 hrs.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however waters in the Tropical Pacific are still showing signs of warming indicating that EL-Nino could be on setting this month or early next month. We will have to continue to watch these conditions as they will play a major impact on the United States winter weather patterns along with other places around the globe.

Climate Watch for the period of September 1-5: The Northern Plains over the past few days have been seeing temps running about 12+ degrees above average, changes are on the way.

New York NY: Temps started about 8 degrees above normal followed by a cooling as temps returned to normal and then on the 3rd dropped below average by about 1 degree, followed by a slow warming trend as temps are now about 5 degrees above average.

Gulfport MS: Temps started 1-2 degrees below average, quickly have bounced back to about 2-4 degrees above average now.

Sioux Falls SD: Temps have been running about 12-18 degrees above average, while the 5th temps dropped to only 1 degree above average as a frontal boundary is moving through.

San Diego CA: The local area has been seeing temps about 2-7 degrees above average.

Portland OR: Temps started 2-3 degrees below average followed by an average day and now temps are rapidly warming about 5-8 degrees above average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 6, 2012:

Day 1-3: Another frontal boundary is moving through the Mississippi River valley bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. Also need to be watching the low pressure system in the Northern Gulf for possible development.

Day 4-7: High pressure will be building in over 2/3 of the country bringing a fairly strong cool down for September to many places. The frontal boundary will exit the region.

Day 8-12: A frontal boundary will move through the Northern Plains bringing showers and storms to the region and also the southwest monsoon will continue to impact the region.

Day 13-15: Another strong frontal system will move through the Northern Plains bringing possibly very cold rain, followed by temps dropping to the 30´s for many parts of the Dakota´s into Minnesota and the Great Lakes.