Big Story Weather – September 7, 2012
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Weather from September 6: A very busy day from a severe weather aspect, with strong winds from Missouri and Kansas and also southward into portions of Arkansas and Mississippi. A second pocket of strong winds occurred in the panhandle of Texas. A third region was found along the Northeast region of New York and portions of PA along with Virginia and North Carolina. A large swath of hail reports came out of Iowa with the largest report from Newell, IA with 1.75 in in diameter.
Outlook for September 7: The frontal boundary over the Midwest will begin to shift eastward bringing with it moderate rain showers and thunderstorms to regions of the Northeast like Buffalo along with high temps in the lower 80’s for the region. The cold front will extend southward back towards Texas adding more rain and thunderstorms along with severe weather from Texas northeastward into Missouri and parts of Tennessee and Kentucky. Look for the daily sea-breeze to bring storms to Miami along with high temps in the mid 80’s. The low in the Gulf will bring an increase chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Gulf Coast today as well. Behind the front we have a very strong high pressure center that is moving in and is going to bring some of the coldest air this summer with high temps in Omaha only making it into the upper 60’s today. Denver will also see high temps in the 60’s. The west coast will be warm again today and dry with high temps hitting the upper 80’s for Seattle. The monsoonal rains will be in place over Arizona again today.
International Outlook: High pressure moving in off the Tibetan Plateau will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea’s and also Japan. The monsoonal trough will bring heavy rain again to India and portions of Southeast Asia. High pressure over France will bring partly cloudy skies from France eastward into Germany and southward into Italy, while an area of showers will develop over Spain. England will also enjoy high pressure today. High pressure will impact the majority of the southern tip of South America bringing partly cloudy skies to the region. High pressure will also dominate Australia with partly cloudy skies and nice weather.
Atlantic Basin: Hurricane Leslie continues to slowly track northward towards Bermuda this morning. Winds are estimated around 65kts with a pressure of 985mb. Hurricane Michael has become weaker from yesterday’s massive CAT3 strength. This morning winds are around 90kts with a pressure of 970mb. Anticipate to see this storm continue to weaken as it moves northward over colder waters. A tropical low is found over the Northern Gulf. Not much change from the past few days with all the convection found on the South-Southwest side of the storm as dry air is entering it from the north. There is less than a 40% chance of this storm developing before it interacts with a cold front from the north. Winds are around 25kts with a pressure of 1010mb.
Eastern Pacific: A quiet day in the basin as nothing major is expected to develop over the next 24hrs.
Western Pacific: A tranquil day across this basin outside of some minor areas of convection. Nothing major expected to develop over the next 24hrs.
ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however waters in the Tropical Pacific are still showing signs of warming indicating that EL-Nino could be onsetting this month or early next month. We will have to continue to watch these conditions as they will play a major impact in the United States winter weather patterns along with other places around the globe.
“NEW” – The Storm Index Outlook will identify the chances of seeing storms impacting certain areas over the next five days.
Storm Index Outlook for Sep 7:
Buffalo NY: No chance of impacts on the 7th increasing to a slight chance for the 8th and then a moderate chance of storms by the 9th. While the 10-11th there will be no impacts.
Miami FL: The 7th and 8th will have no impacts followed by the 9-11 having the potential of strong impacts by thunderstorms.
Omaha NE: A pretty nice week ahead with no impacts from storms forecasted.
Denver CO: A quiet week ahead for the region as high pressure builds into the area which will leave the storm index value at zero.
Seattle WA: The area starts out with no impacts from the 7th through the 9th, followed by a moderate chance of storms impacting the area on the 10th and then the 11th a return to no impacts.
Climate Watch for the period of September 2-6.
The heat has built back in the middle part of the Country over the past few days, while Southern Florida has been running a few degrees below average.
Buffalo NY: The entire period has been about 7-14 degrees above average for the area.
Miami FL: Temps have remained about 1-3 degrees below average for the entire period.
Omaha NE: Temps have been running between 4-15 degrees above average for the entire period.
Denver CO: Temps started about 7-9 degrees above average followed by a slight decrease of temps only 3 degrees above average and then a rapid increase to 9 degrees above average on the 6th.
Seattle WA: Started the period with temps about 1-4 degrees below average and since the 4th temps have been steadily rising to about 3-10 degrees above average.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Sep 7, 2012:
Day 1-3: The frontal boundary pushing across the Mid-Mississippi river valley will spawn a wide area of potential severe weather from Eastern Texas northeastward into Kentucky and parts of Indiana. The low pressure over the Gulf today will strengthen a touch creating the potential for wrap around moisture along the Northern Gulf Coast.
Day 4-7: High pressure will be building in over 2/3 of the country bringing a fairly strong cool down for September to many places. The frontal boundary will exit the region.
Day 8-12: A frontal boundary will move through the northern Plains bringing showers and storms to the region and also the southwest monsoon will continue to impact the region.
Day 13-15: A third frontal boundary will move through the northern plains bringing with it another round of storms and possibly some of the coolest air of the season behind it. Also a return flow will setup over the Southeast bringing with it showers and thunderstorms. A potent low pressure system will also be entering the Pacific Northwest that could bring some potentially heavy rain into Seattle and the northwest.