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September 10, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 10, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Weather from September 7-9: Friday was a very busy day for severe weather along the frontal boundary as there was over 300 wind reports from Oklahoma and Arkansas northeastward into the Ohio River Valley and also multiple hail reports in this region right along the frontal boundary. Saturday the front shifted eastward and again was responsible for a large array of severe weather to include several tornadoes that hit the New York City area creating a large swath of damage. The winds and hail were also found along the frontal boundary stretching from New Hampshire and Vermont southward into the Carolina´s. Sunday was a quieter day, however there was one reported land-spout in the Southern portion of California along with a few wind reports in the region.

Outlook for September 10: A quiet day across most of the country as high pressure from Canada will dominate the weather from the East Coast all the way to the West Coast. Two spots of concern today will be the southwest monsoon and also a few lingering thunderstorms in Southern Florida. Otherwise the rest of the country is looking nice. Baltimore will be seeing partly cloudy skies with a high near 74. Gulfport will see temps in the mid 80´s and Chicago will be into the lower 70´s. Denver will be a touch warm today with high temps in the upper 80´s and a nice day in San Diego with high temps in the mid 80´s.

International Outlook: High pressure over Eastern China will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea´s and also Japan today. The monsoonal trough will not be as strong today and only bring showers to the northern parts of India. High pressure will bring nice conditions to the Middle East. Low pressure to the north of England will bring showers to London. While high pressure will also be in control over most of Europe today. An area of low pressure transiting through the tip of South America will bring showers and gusty winds to this region. High pressure will be in control over most of Australia bringing with it partly cloudy skies to most places.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Leslie continues tracking northward away from Bermuda and now has its eyes set on making a possible landfall along the Southeast coast of Canada. This morning winds are estimated around 50kts with a pressure 998mb. Leslie should slowly weaken over the next few days. Next, we have Hurricane Michael holding strong in the central of the Atlantic posing no threats to land at this time. Winds are around 75kts with a pressure 983mb. Another area of concern is with a wave that has pushed off the coast of Africa and currently this morning has winds around 25kts and a pressure of 1008mb. This area does have the potential to become our next tropical system in the Atlantic.

Eastern Pacific: There is one area of interest located just off the coast of Central America, winds are estimated to be around 20kts with a pressure of 1008mb, there is a chance that this system will get better developed over the next 24hrs.

Western Pacific: There are three areas being watched this morning. One includes a cluster of storms to the south of Japan. This area has winds around 20kts and a pressure of 1007mb. The second area is to the east of the Philippians and has winds around 20kts with a pressure of 1007mb. Finally the third spot is located further out in the Western Pacific near the dateline and has winds around 15kts with a pressure of 1010mb.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however waters in the Tropical Pacific are still showing signs of warming indicating that EL-Nino could be on setting this month or early next month we will have to continue to watch these conditions as they will play a major impact in the United States winter weather patterns along with other places around the globe.

Storm Index Outlook for September 10-14:

Baltimore MD: High pressure will be in control of the weather leaving this area fairly dry and leaving the index at 0 for the next five days.

Gulfport MS: High pressure will be in control for today and tomorrow giving us a 0, however come Wednesday-Friday the index value goes up to a 1 due to afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms.

Chicago IL: Looks very nice as the high pressure is moving through the area. By the 14th there is a slight chance of seeing thunderstorms returning to the picture.

Denver CO: The period will start out with 0 in the index value, however by mid-week the region could be looking at an index value of 1-2 due to some upslope thunderstorms moving into the area along with another approaching cold front.

San Diego CA: A quiet week ahead as the fall period gets closer look for their value will stay in the 0 range for the rest of the week.

Climate Watch for the period of September 5-9:

The first part of the period from the 5-7th the heat was present and then one of the strongest cold fronts of this season moved through the area.

Baltimore MD: Started the period out about 4-9 degrees above average through the entire period, until the 9th once the front moved through and brought temps to about 2 below average.

Gulfport MS: Temps started about 1-4 degrees above average and then fell on the 9th to about 4 degrees below average.

Chicago IL: Warm through the 6th as temps were about 7-8 degrees above average followed by the 7th when temps returned to average, the 8th and 9th brought temps to about 5-6 degrees below average.

Denver CO: Temps started out warm on the 5th and 6th about 3-9 degrees above average followed by a sharp cooling on the 7th as temps fell 12 degrees below average. A slow warming has again taken place.

San Diego CA: The entire period temps have maintained about 3-6 degrees above average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 10, 2012:

Day 1-3: The big story is going to be the high pressure in control of 2/3 of the United States bringing very nice fall-like conditions to many places. There will also be the threat of some strong storms in the desert Southwest.

Day 4-7: A frontal boundary will begin to track across the plains region brining another chance for severe weather to the region. Another strong high pressure system will move in behind the frontal boundary.

Day 8-12: A weak frontal boundary will move through the Great Lakes region and behind that we will see the potential for a large area to see at or below freezing temps with many frost/freeze advisories likely. Also in the Pacific we will have a hurricane.

Day 13-15: A frontal boundary will move into the Northeast, along with that another high pressure center will advance into the plains region bringing another shot of cool-cold air into the area. Another area of concern could possibly be the Southwest Gulf of Mexico for development.