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September 11, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 11, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 10: A large area of high pressure moving into the Ohio River valley was responsible for bringing some of the coldest air that we have seen in a while. A quiet day on the severe weather front as high pressure was in control of a good portion of the US. However, we did manage to see a few damaging wind reports in Wyoming and also one in Southern California.

Outlook for September 11: Another nice day for 2/3 of the country as high pressure will influence the weather. It will start to shift towards the East Coast, which will slowly allow for the southerly winds to start picking up over the Plains. This will lead to a high fire potential in this region. Also look for clouds to slowly increase along the Gulf Coast as the return flow sets up later this afternoon.

International Outlook: A tropical feature will be moving towards Southeastern Japan bringing an increase in precipitation to the island and also Tokyo. Another frontal boundary over Eastern China will bring an increase in showers from the Korea´s all the way southward towards Hong Kong. The southwest monsoon will also be enhanced today increasing the moisture from India westward. High pressure will be in control for the majority of Europe leading to a very nice day from Spain eastward into Germany and southward towards Italy. A low pressure system will be impacting England bringing showers and cloudy skies to the region. A low pressure system will be transiting the tip of South America bringing with it plenty of clouds and showers to the region. Two areas of high pressure will dominate Australia today with partly cloudy skies from coast to coast.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Leslie continues moving across Southeast Canada this morning and has winds around 60kts with a pressure of 968mb. This system should dissipate during the day today. Tropical Storm Michael currently just to the southeast of Leslie has winds of 55kts and a pressure of 994mb and is also expected to continue weakening today. Newly formed Tropical Depression 14L is just off the coast of Africa and will begin to move westward across the Atlantic, at this time it´s going to take a slow westward track and eventually re-curve before making it to the United States. Winds are around 30kts with a pressure of 1007mb.

Eastern Pacific: There is one area of interest located just off the coast of Central America. Winds are estimated to be around 25kts with a pressure of 1008mb. There is a chance that this system will get better developed over the next 24hrs.

Western Pacific: First, there is Tropical Storm Sanba which has winds of 35kts and a pressure of 996mb. It is forecasted to track east of the Philippines and make a northward track towards Japan. Another area of interest is southeast of Japan and has estimated winds of 20kts with a pressure of 1007mb. This area is forecasted to track towards Japan before re-curving over the Kuroshio Current. Another area of interest a bit further out in the Western Pacific also has winds near 20kts and a pressure of 1007mb.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however waters in the Tropical Pacific are still showing signs of warming indicating that EL-Nino could be on setting this month or early next month. We will have to continue to watch these conditions as they will play a major impact in the United States winter weather patterns along with other places around the globe.

Storm Index Outlook for September 11-15:

Buffalo NY: The next few days will remain quiet with no major weather events, however by the time the 15th arrives we could be looking at strong thunderstorms in the area.

Mobile AL: Looks good for today, however tomorrow the return flow starts to bring back thunderstorms along with another frontal boundary which will bring moderate rain to the region by the 14th.

Topeka KS: No major issues the first two days, however as the front moves through on the 13th expect to see thunderstorms return giving a moderate index number, then things will return back to normal afterwards.

Billings MT: High pressure is in place and will provide a non-thunderstorm environment allowing the region to be put at a 0 impact level.

Portland OR: No major storm systems headed into the general direction of Portland and its surrounding areas over the next few days. Expect a really sunny time.

Climate Watch for the period of September 6-10:

A frontal boundary just moved through the East Coast allowing for some cooler conditions these past few days, while on the West Coast another frontal boundary is entering the region.

Buffalo NY: Warm on the 6th and 7th ahead of the frontal boundary with temps 7-9 degrees above average. The frontal boundary moved through and brought temps down to 3-5 degrees below average.

Mobile AL: A period with temps about 1-3 degrees above average, followed by the frontal passage and temps have now been around 3-5 degrees below average.

Topeka KS: Started the period out about 10 degrees above average, the frontal boundary had also moved through bringing temps to around 3-5 degrees below average and now are looking at temps on the 10th back above average by 2 degrees.

Billings MT: The period started with temps about 10 degrees below average, followed by a significant warm up as temps are now running 13-15 degrees above average.

Portland OR: Warm the past few days with temps about 12-17 degrees above average. Now as a cold front moves into the area temps are back to about 8-9 degrees below average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 11, 2012:

Day 1-3: High pressure will still be in place for a large area of the United States today, however the Southwest could see some thunderstorms again today along with Southern Florida. Day 2 a new frontal boundary will begin to take shape over the middle of the US.

Day 4-7: Another strong high pressure center will push in over the Northern Plains. Day 6-7 we will see an increase in southerly flow along with thunderstorms over the Gulf Coast region.

Day 8-12: Another strong frontal system and high pressure center will interact over the Central Plains and could very well lead to a severe weather outbreak.

Day 13-15: A strong high pressure center will influence the Mid-west, while the plains will see dry conditions but there also may be the mix of a few plays on the sideline. Also a strong push of the southwest monsoon could expand. The third thing would be a strong frontal boundary approaching the region of the Pacific Northwest.