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September 12, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 12, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 11: High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic region left for a very nice day across a good portion of the country again, with the exception being in South Florida and the Southwest US where the monsoon rains were found. There was one single strong wind report in Southern California. Also yesterday big things were the fire hazards through a good portion of the Northern United States and also the issuing of the first Winter Storm Watch for the Colorado Rockies last night.

Outlook for September 12: A quiet day along the Eastern Seaboard as high pressure is located just to the east of the New York area. Expect to see partly cloudy skies with a high in the upper 70´s for the New York area. The Southeast will begin to see return flow today along with warmer and more humid conditions which will lead to showers and thunderstorms for places like Houston were high temps will be in the upper 80´s. A new developing low is setting up over the Southwest US and will slowly move towards the Southern Plains. On the west side of the system above 10,000ft over the Rockies a few winter storm watches have been issued for the potential of seeing snowfall amounts of 6+ inches. The north side of this front will be cooler with showers for places like Sioux Falls were the high will only be in the lower 60´s. The Western part of the United States along the coast looks good for both Seattle and Los Angeles, while showers and storms will be in the Southwest again today with the associated monsoons.

International Outlook: An area of low pressure to the southeast of Tokyo will bring increased cloudiness to the region. A weak frontal boundary will bring cloudy skies and scattered showers to the East Coast of China. East of the Philippines tropical activity will create an increase in moisture for the local area. The southwest monsoon will be in full force again today from India eastward. High pressure over Eastern Europe will bring partly cloudy skies from Germany southward into Italy and westward back into France and Spain. While a frontal boundary will move through England bringing clouds and showers to the area. A very strong low pressure system to the west of the tip of South America will bring increased winds and seas to the region. A frontal boundary extending through the central part of Australia will bring scattered showers to the region, while High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the western portion.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine formed overnight and has winds around 40kts with a pressure estimated to be near 1001mb. Nadine is forecasted to intensify as it moves slowly north-northwestward. It is not forecasted to have any impacts with land at this time.

Eastern Pacific: There is a high likelihood for a tropical depression to form later today off the coast of Mexico as winds are around 30kts with a pressure of 1006mb. This system will strengthen slowly as it moves northward over the next 24hrs.

Western Pacific: We now have Typhoon Sanba which has estimated winds near 65kts and a pressure of 974mb. This system will strengthen as it moves away from the Philippines and heads towards the island of Okinawa. Also there is another area of concern just to the east of Tokyo this morning. This area is transitioning into a frontal feature and should move away from Japan today.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however this morning there has been signs of a strengthening tropical belt on the satellite image which indicates the waters are warm enough that convection is becoming very well defined. There is still a high chance that El-Nino will set up soon.

Storm Index Outlook for September 12-16:

New York NY: Conditions are going to remain nice for the next several days and there is no chance of seeing any sort of storms in the area.

Houston TX: A few thunderstorms today, followed by stronger storms on the 13-15th. The 16th looks to be nice with no impacts.

Sioux Falls SD: The frontal boundary today will set the conditions for a moderate impact of showers and storms. The remainder of the period will be nice.

Seattle WA: No impacts expected this week as the weather will be nice with High pressure over the area.

Los Angeles CA: No impacts in this region from storms or heavy rains as all the weather is going to remain south of the LA Basin.

Climate Watch for the period of September 7-11.

A quiet weather pattern has led to some large ups and downs over the past few days across the country.

New York NY: Warm as temps have been 4-6 above normal followed by an average day and then temps dropped to 3-5 below average.

Houston TX: Temps were above normal on the 7th around 4 degrees, followed by a cooling trend as temps are now about 1-3 below normal.

Sioux Falls SD: Started the period about 5 degrees below normal, but quickly started warming up and temps are now about 15 degrees or more above normal.

Seattle WA: Temps have been 10 degrees or more above average and then a cool down moved in allowing temps to now sit about 4-6 degrees below normal.

Los Angeles CA: Temps have maintained a fairly even 2-8 degrees above normal, followed by an average day on the 11th.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 12, 2012:

Day 1-3: High pressure will bring nice conditions to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while storms will return to the Gulf Coast region and also stronger storms will be found in the Southern Plains. Elevations above 6,000ft in the Colorado Rockies could be dealing with Snow as Winter Storm watches have been posted.

Day 4-7: High pressure will bring colder air and also nicer weather to the majority of the United States again by Day 5. By day 6 there could be an area of low pressure developing in the Gulf bringing with it increased rainfall chances to the Gulf Coast. Also another strong frontal system will begin to develop by day 7 across the southern plains.

Day 8-12: A very strong surge of precipitation could be banding its way into the Gulf Coast region during this time period. A very active weather pattern could be in place from the Gulf Coast all the way into the Northeast during this time.

Day 13-15: We could be looking at multiple weather features from a tropical system near Cuba, to a strong cold air mass in place over the Northern Plains and  even some snowflakes in the Great Lakes region, along with the Southeast getting lots of rain.