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September 13, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 13, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 12: A marginally busy day yesterday as a few places in the Northern Plains got to experience their first taste of fall with some frost and freezes. Also the Colorado Rockies got a touch of winter snow falling in the area. Yesterday was quiet in that no severe weather occurred throughout the United States.

Weather Outlook for September 13: The western boundary of the high pressure will bring another nice day to the Northeast in places like Boston where the high temps will be in the upper 70´s. An area of Low pressure is beginning to develop over the Southern Plains and will bring showers and thunderstorms to the southeast and southern plains to places like Memphis TN and Austin TX. The monsoonal rains will continue for another day over the Southwest bringing periods of flash flooding to the region. The remainder of the country from the Northern Plains to the West coast will have a nice day in places like Rapid City SD and also Portland OR.

International Weather Outlook: A frontal boundary moving through the Northeast part of China will bring rain showers to the Korea´s and also portions of Eastern China. The monsoonal rains will continue over parts of India and Pakistan today. Also the tropical moisture associated with the Typhoon will pick up over the Philippines and also Taiwan and parts of Okinawa today. High pressure will dominate the weather over the Middle East and Eastern Europe. While low pressure will bring rain showers to England and southward into Spain and portions of France. A nice day in store for Australia as temps will be comfortable for winter and the skies will be partly cloudy.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine continues to turn in the open Atlantic posing no threat to land. It is forecasted to intensify to a hurricane over in the next 48hrs. Right now winds are around 60kts with a pressure of 990mb.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Kristy did form yesterday and this morning has winds around 45kts with a pressure of 1002mb. Kristy is forecasted to move generally towards the Northwest away from land.

Western Pacific: We now have Typhoon Sanba which has estimated winds near 115kts and a pressure of 937mb, this system will strengthen as it moves away from the Philippines and heads towards the island of Okinawa. Also another area of development in the South China Sea needs to be watched for potential development later on.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however this morning there have been signs of a strengthening tropical belt on the satellite image which indicates the waters are warm enough that convection is becoming very well defined. There is still a high chance that El-Nino sets up soon.

Five Day Storm Outlook for September 13-17:

Boston MA: A quiet week is in store for the area with no expected storms to interact leaving the next five days as no impacts.

Memphis TN: Today will see a few passing storms that could slow things down a touch. However, the big story is going to be on the 16th when a stronger line of storms begin to move through the area.

Austin TX: A slight chance for a few strong storms today, increasing to a moderate chance for both the 14th and 15th with strong gusty winds.

Rapid City SD: The next five days look to be quiet across the region with no major impacts of storms occurring.

Portland OR: Looking at the next five days this region also looks like it will have no storm impacts and a very nice weekend ahead.

Climate Watch for the period of September 8-12:

As the high pressure leaves the east coast, warmer return flow has begun to set up for many places.

Boston MA: Started the period about 7 degrees above average, followed by cooler air as temps dropped to around 1-5 below average.

Memphis TN: Temps started out about 10 degrees below average and have warmed slightly to around 1-3 degrees below average.

Austin TX: Temps started about 3 degrees below average and then started to warm as now temps are about 5-6 degrees above average.

Rapid City SD: Temps have been very warm through the entire period as they rose to as much as 22 degrees above average, now they have started to cool as yesterday they were about 5-6 degrees below average.

Portland OR: Started the period about 3 degrees above average and then cooled to8-9 degrees below average followed by a warming trend yesterday of 5-6 degrees above average again.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 13, 2012:

Day 1-3: Southerly flow is going to setup along the Southeast and westward into the area of Low pressure which will bring an increase to strong storms through the first few days. We are also looking at multiple places that could see frost and freezes this evening in the Northern Plains. The southwest monsoon will continue to impact the southwest region with flash flooding and then believe it or not we could be looking at a half of foot of snow in the Colorado Rockies over the next couple of days.

Day 4-7: The frontal boundary will make its way up the East Coast and following in behind it will be another shot of cooler Canadian air.

Day 8-12: A very strong surge of precipitation could be banding its way into the Gulf Coast region during this time period. A very active weather pattern could be in place from the Gulf Coast all the way into the Northeast during this time.

Day 13-15: The strong push of gulf moisture still could be impacting the Northern Gulf Coast, along with that we will see another area of disturbed weather moving across the nations mid-section.