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September 14, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 14, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 13: Another really quiet day across the country. There were a few thunderstorms in the Southern Plains, however nothing severe. Also the Northern Plains was dealing with frost and freezing conditions and also strong winds which have led to fire watch and dangers. The majority of the United States enjoyed a beautiful end of another summer day.

Weather Outlook for September 14: Nice weather will prevail through the Midwest and Northeast as places like Cleveland will see high temps in the upper 60´s to lower 70´s with partly cloudy skies. An area of low pressure is moving towards the lower Mississippi Valley which will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to places like New Orleans. High pressure over the Northern plains will create partly cloudy skies from Omaha northward into the Dakotas and eastward into Minnesota and portions of the Great Lakes. A fairly nice day in store for the west as well. The only concern is going to be Southern California where temps are going to head well over 100 for many places including the Los Angeles area.

International Outlook: High pressure will bring nice conditions from Japan westward into the Korea´s. Super Typhoon Sanba is making its way to Okinawa Japan. It is currently packing winds in the range of a CAT 5 storm. More on that in the tropical discussion below. The southwest monsoon will be impacting the Southeastern portion of Asia today. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies from Spain eastward into France and also Germany and southward into Italy. A weak frontal boundary will extend through England today bringing a few passing showers and cloudy skies. High pressure will be in control of the weather for the majority of Australia making for a very nice day.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine continues tracking northward away from land and should be no impact to any land as winds are currently around 60kts with a pressure of 988mb.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Kristy is continuing to track slowly northward towards the Baja and is expected to start weakening over the next few days with estimated winds around 50kts and a pressure of 998mb. A second area of interest is a touch bit farther out than Kristy and may very well develop as it is over warmer waters with a pressure of 1007mb and winds near 30kts.

Western Pacific: Super Typhoon Sanba is currently a CAT 5 storm and has winds this morning around 150kts with higher gusts along with a pressure of 911mb which is very low. This storm is very dangerous and large. Current forecasts put it over the Okinawa Island of Japan as a large storm. This region needs to be bracing for this very serious storm.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however this morning there has been signs of a strengthening tropical belt on the satellite image which indicates the waters are warm enough that convection is becoming very well defined. There is still a high chance that El-Nino sets up soon.

Five day storm Outlook for September 14-18:

Cleveland OH: A fairly quite weekend in store with no major issues. The 18th looks to bring a slight chance of storms into the area. Nothing major at this time.

New Orleans LA: There is a slight chance of seeing afternoon storms for the next couple of days, followed by a better chance on the 16th-18th where there could be a moderate chance.

Omaha NE: No major impacts forecasted until the 17th and then there is a slight chance of seeing a few passing storms.

Denver CO: A very nice week ahead as high pressure will keep the region dry and storm free.

San Diego CA: No major weather issues forecasted for the week as it will remain dry for the region.

Climate Watch for the period of September 9-13:

Cleveland OH: A very cool start to the 9th with temps about 5-7 degrees below average, the 11th saw temps return to about 1-8 degrees above average for the remainder of the period.

New Orleans LA: Also a cooler start as temps were about 4-6 degrees below average followed by a warm up on the 12th as temps went to about 2 degrees above average, followed by average temps on the 13th.

Omaha NE: Started the period 1-2 degrees below average and then quickly warmed to temps about 7-15 degrees above average followed by a cool down again as temps returned to about 9 degrees below average.

Denver CO: Temps started warm around 8-12 degrees above average for the first three days and then quickly a cold front passed through dropping temps to around 9-20 degrees below average.

San Diego CA: The first two days were about 3-5 degrees above average followed by a small one day below average of 1 degree and then a return to a warmer 3 degree above average day and then finished the period out with temps at average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 14, 2012:

Day 1-3: A frontal boundary over the Southern Plains will bring an increase in precipitation to the region, while high pressure will control the Northern Plains and also into the Northeast.

Day 4-7: The frontal boundary will move through the Southeast and on its way up the Northeast bringing plenty of rain from the Gulf Coast all the way up into New York City, behind it we will see a strong push of cold air with the next high pressure center.

Day 8-12: Another low will develop in the Southern Plains and push towards the Northeast bringing with it another shot of heavy rain for many places in the drought stricken region.

Day 13-15: A fast moving system will move through the Northern Plains bringing with some much needed rain, while a high pressure center will control the Mid-Tennessee valley and tropical moisture will be on the increase over Florida.