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September 17, 2012

Big Story Weather – September 17, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from September 14-16: The Northern portions of the Dakota´s along with the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast dealt with their first frost and freeze conditions. The heat continued in the western portion of the United States as places like Los Angeles dealt with 100 degree heat. Friday´s severe weather included wind reports from Upstate New York.  Saturday was tranquil with no severe weather. On Sunday there was one isolated wind damage report form Wyoming.

Weather Outlook for September 17: Southerly flow will move into the Northeast today bringing with it an increase in clouds and, as the front approaches, look for thunderstorms to develop overnight for places like New York which will also see high temps in the upper 70´s. Another area of low pressure is moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico which will bring very heavy areas of rain to the Southeast and Gulf Coast along with areas of severe weather and high temps in the lower 80´s. High pressure is beginning to build in over the Northern plains and will bring partly cloudy skies to places like Dallas and Boise as temps warm into the upper 80´s for Dallas and the lower 80´s for Boise. The West Coast will be dealing with another warm and dry day today as temps reach the upper 80´s in the Los Angeles Metro area.

International Weather Outlook: This weekend Typhoon Sanba made landfall in Okinawa Japan and then began moving towards South Korea bringing very heavy rain and strong winds. Sanba will continue to move northward today over the Korea´s before re-entering the waters east of Korea and head towards Northern Japan bringing the region plenty of rain and wind again. High pressure over the Tibetan Plateau will bring partly cloudy skies to a good portion of China today. The monsoonal rains will be fairly weak in concentration today over Southeast Asia. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the majority of Eastern Europe, while an area of low pressure will bring showers to England. High pressure will bring a fairly nice day to the majority of South America. An area of low pressure is beginning to move in over Western Australia and will bring showers to the region.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine continues to turn towards the Azores with winds around 60kts and a pressure of 987mb. This morning 92L is currently moving through the Windward Islands bringing with it showers and storms along with winds near 20kts and a pressure of 1010mb. Another area which is 93L is located just to the southwest of LA/MS, the winds with this system are around 20kts with a pressure of 1014mb, this system will move into the Gulf Coast region this afternoon.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression Kristy continues to weaken as the winds are around 30kts with a pressure of 1009mb. Hurricane Lane this morning has winds near 65kts and pressure of 993mb this storm will also continue to move away from land.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Sanba is moving onshore over South Korea right now packing winds of 45kts and a pressure of 989mb. This system will bring flooding rains to the Korea´s and also Southwest Japan along with strong winds. Another area is over the Philippines this morning with winds near 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the neutral phase of the cycle, however this morning there have been signs of a strengthening tropical belt on the satellite image which indicates the waters are warm enough that convection is becoming very well defined. There is still a high chance that El-Nino sets up soon.

Five day Storm Outlook for September 17-21:

New York NY: Looks good for today, however tomorrow there is a very moderate chance to see some strong to severe thunderstorms which will carry over to the 19th as a slight chance. The 20th and 21st will be none.

Mobile AL: A slight chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow, followed by cool and dry air.

Dallas TX: Looks to have a nice week ahead, with no major impacts forecasted for this week.

Boise ID: A very warm and dry week ahead with no impacts expected.

Los Angeles CA: A very dry warm week ahead, no major impacts forecasted for the week.

Climate Watch for the period of September 12-16:

New York NY: A warm trend through the past few days as temps have been averaging about 2-3 degrees above average, while the 16th temps returned to normal.

Mobile AL: Temps started out about 2 degrees below, followed by a small warming trend of temps 1-2 degrees above and then the 16th temps returned to average.

Dallas TX: Started the period with temps about 4 degrees above average, followed by some strong cold air as temps have fallen to 12-18 degrees below average.

Boise ID: The 12th was a below average day, however since then temps have been running about 7-12 degrees above average.

Los Angeles CA: Temps have overall been above average as the 15-16th temps have been running about 12-24 degrees above average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 17, 2012:

Day 1-3: A frontal boundary moving through the Midwest and also the Gulf Coast will be the sight of some heavy rain and severe storms. Look for this to move into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by tomorrow.

Day 4-7: A clipper system will move through the Northern Plains and move across the Great Lakes. A very strong and cold area of High pressure will move in behind the clipper system.

Day 8-12: A strong storm system will enter the Canadian pacific coast and move eastward across the Northern Plains bringing with it isolated showers.

Day 13-15: A frontal boundary will be moving through the Northern Plains bringing an increase chance of showers to the region.

Today's Spotlight City Forecast is for Baltimore MD

Monday Sept 17: Mostly Cloudy skies with a high temp near 75F, look for mostly cloudy skies through the evening with low temps approaching the upper 60´s. Winds will be from the Southeast around 7-12mph.

Tuesday Sept 18: Mostly Cloudy with periods of thunderstorms, some which may be strong to severe. High temps will be in the upper 70´s, while overnight lows will hit the mid 50´s. Winds will be from the Northwest at 7-12mph.

Wednesday Sept 19: Mostly Cloudy skies and cooler as high temps will be in the upper 60´s, while overnight lows will be in the upper 50´s. Winds will be from the Northeast at 5-10mph.

Thursday Sept 20: Partly Cloudy skies with a high near 70F. Winds will be from the Southeast  at 2-7mph, look for overnight lows to hit the upper 50´s.

Friday Sept 21: Partly Cloudy with plenty of sunshine, high temps will be in the upper 70´s, while overnight lows will drop into the upper 50´s. Winds will be from the Southwest at 5-10mph.

Ask The Weatherman for September 17:

Question: What is the difference between high pressure and low pressure?

Answer: The best way to answer this is first, high pressure has winds that flow clockwise around it, while Low pressures have winds that blow counterclockwise around it.

Secondly, high pressure brings in very nice weather, while low pressure brings in areas of precipitation and storms.