October 2, 2012
Big Story Weather – October 2, 2012
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story weather from October 1: The cold air has started to filter in towards the Southeast part of the United States behind the cold front. Temps in many places dropped into the 50´s in the region. The strong winds through the Northern Plains have led to an increase in fire danger throughout the region. Severe weather occurred through the Southeast with one tornado in South Carolina. Strong wind reports were found in Eastern Tennessee and spread into the Carolina´s.
Weather Outlook for October 2: Low pressure will continue to move towards the Mid-Atlantic region today bringing with it showers and more thunderstorms to the region. High pressure moving through Southern Canada will bring cooler conditions to the Great Lakes region. The rest of the country will see tranquil weather with partly cloudy skies and the majority of the country will see mild temps as strong southerly winds start to bring warmer temps back into the Plains and also the Southwest. Below you will find the weather for a few select cities:
Baltimore MD: (Storms 79F) | Atlanta GA: (PC 71F) | Sioux Falls SD: (PC 68F) | Houston TX: (PC 80F) | Portland OR: (Sunny 68F)
International Weather Outlook: Tropical moisture will again start to return to Southern Japan with the next tropical system. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea´s and Eastern China. High pressure to the North of India will bring partly cloudy skies to India and Pakistan. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while an approaching frontal boundary will bring an increase chance for showers into Spain and France and an area of low pressure over England will make for a rainy day in the region. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions to the majority of South America. High pressure over Eastern Australia will bring partly cloudy skies to the region, while a developing low pressure will bring cloudy conditions to the Perth region and southwest Australia.
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine continues to slowly drift northward away from the Azores and has a pressure of 991mb along with winds near 60kts. Another area of low pressure in the South Central part of the Atlantic currently has winds around 25kts with a pressure of 1009mb and continues to slowly drift westward.
Eastern Pacific: There are no systems in this basin.
Western Pacific: There is a lot of activity in the Western Pacific again, as we have Tropical Storm Maliksi which is currently located to the Southeast of Tokyo Japan and continues to drift slowly northward with estimated winds around 40kts and a pressure of 993mb. This storm should remain east of Japan. The second storm is located in the South China Sea and it is Tropical Storm Gaemi which has winds near 35kts and a pressure of 996mb. This storm is going to slowly move westward towards Vietnam. There is also an area of low pressure located near 9N and 157E. This feature has winds near 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb. It does have the possibility of gaining some strength over the next day or so. The second low pressure is located near 12N and 139E this feature has winds near 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb and also has a small chance of developing more in the next 24 hrs.
ENSO Watch: We remain in the Neutral Phase but as we can see above the temps are still supportive of a developing El-Nino. The western boundary box is being watched for the potential development of El-Nino.
Five Day Storm Index Outlook:
Baltimore MD: There is a frontal boundary moving through today which will bring a moderate chance of seeing thunderstorms along with impacts. On the 3rd there will still be a slight chance of some impacts and then things should clear out.
Atlanta GA: There is a slight chance of seeing impacts today from some leftover showers on the back side of the frontal boundary that has moved through. The rest of the period will be tranquil.
Sioux Falls SD: There will be no impacts for the entire period as high pressure will begin to dominate the weather for the next few days.
Houston TX: A dry week in store will leave the impacts to none.
Portland OR: A nice week in store with no impacts forecasted.
Climate Watch for September 27- October 1:
Baltimore MD: The period started out warm with temps about 6-7 degrees above average followed by a cooler 29th and then a return to near normal for the rest of the period.
Atlanta GA: Temps have been running from the 27th — 29th about 6-9 degrees above average, while the 30th temps dropped to around 2-6 degrees below average.
Sioux Falls SD: The entire period has seen temps anywhere from 4-14 degrees above average as the southerly flow has brought warm air into the region.
Houston TX: The 27th and 28th temps were about 1-4 degrees above average, followed by a cool down with the frontal boundary now temps have been around 2-9 degrees below average.
Portland OR: Warm throughout the entire period as temps have been ranging from around 4-12 degrees above average the entire period.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 2, 2012:
Day 1-3: Low pressure moving into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio River Valley will leave the region in the target of both severe weather and heavier precipitation. High pressure will bring nice weather to the majority of the rest of the country. An area of moisture will develop in front of the next area of high pressure over the Northern Plains and this will create rain showers along with the potential of seeing some winter precipitation in some places.
Day 4-7: The strong area of high pressure is going to move in from Canada and transit all the way down to the Gulf Coast. This high pressure will bring some of the coldest air of the fall so far as far south as Texas. There is also the possibility that a moderate snowfall occurs in the Black Hills of South Dakota.
Day 8-12: A low pressure system will move across the Northern Tier of the United States and bring a frontal boundary all the way down to the Gulf Coast with showers and thunderstorms on the south end of the front, while there is the potential of seeing snow on the north end of the system.
Day 13-15: Another deep low pressure system will be moving across the Plains and Ohio River Valley creating an enhanced region of precipitation over the entire area.
Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Sumrall MS:
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy and mild with a high near 79F. Winds will be from the Southeast around 2-7mph. The overnight lows will be around 56F.
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy and warmer with high temps near 84F. Winds again out of the Southeast around 2-7mph. The overnight lows will fall to around 56F.
Thursday: Partly Cloudy and a tad warmer with highs near 85F. Winds will gradually shift to the Northeast around 2-7mph. The overnight lows will be around 60F.
Friday: Partly Cloudy and warm with high temps near 85F. Winds will become calm throughout the day. The overnight lows will drop to around 60F.
Saturday: Another partly cloudy day and mild during the day with temps near 85F. Look for a frontal boundary to move through the area towards the afternoon bringing with it a sharp cool down overnight as low temps will fall to around 45F under Northeast winds 7-12mph.
Ask The Weatherman for October 2:
Question: What is return flow?
Answer: Return flow is often referred to as when the Southerly winds start to bring back moisture and warmer conditions to the north. This scenario is best played out when a location is placed on the Western side of a high pressure center.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 2:
Wave Energy: The best potential for wave development is along the Southeast Coast of the US from Florida into the Carolina´s as this region is going to have a great potential for wave energy today.
Solar Energy: The high pressure over the Great Lakes will leave a nice warm and sunny day back into the Plains and also the Western United States from the Northwest to Southwest will be good areas for generating solar power today.
Wind Energy: The best spot today is going to be in Eastern Kentucky and Tennessee as the area of low pressure begins to move through the region bringing enhanced winds to the area.
Hydro-Energy: The approaching low pressure center from the south will put the Ohio River in line to pick up a bit of moisture making it a great source for Hydro Energy today.