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October 3, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 3, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story weather from October 2: The cold air has started to invade the Northern Rockies and will continue to push southward over the next few days. A quiet day with only one isolated wind report in the Carolina region. Other than that the heat in the Southwest continued. Along with that we had Red Flag Warnings over the Northern Plains with the strong dry southerly winds impacting the area.

Weather Outlook for October 3: A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the immediate East Coast and also into Florida. A nice day in store from the Ohio River Valley southward into the Gulf Coast region. A potent storm system is developing in the Rockies and will move out into the Plains tonight into tomorrow. This system is going to bring a moderate swipe of snow to many regions of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Places in Montana, Western North Dakota are currently under Winter Weather Advisories, also Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota are under a Winter Storm Watch for accumulating snowfall. I foresee more Winter Weather Advisories will be added to the list later this afternoon. The Southwest will be warm again today, while the Northwest will be dry and mild. Below is the forecast for a few select cities:

Cleveland OH: (PC: 71F) | Gulfport MS: (PC: 83F) | Fargo ND: (Rain, Evening Snow: 54F) | Billings MT: (Rain and snow: 44F) | Phoenix AZ: (Sunny: 96F)

International Weather Outlook: A tropical system approaching Eastern Japan will bring increased winds and rainfall to the region near Tokyo. High pressure will impact Eastern China along with the Koreas. A little bit of monsoonal return flow will setup over Southeast Asia. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while Western Europe will be dealing with a frontal boundary bringing an increase in showers to the region along with England. A deep low pressure is approaching the tip of South America and will bring a few showers to the region. High pressure will bring a nice day to the majority of Australia.

Tropical Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine is moving into the Azores one more time before it gets absorbed into a frontal boundary. Winds are currently around 45kts with a pressure of 998mb. Another area located to the East of the Windward Islands is slowly showing signs and possibly will become a tropical depression or storm later today with winds around 25kts and a pressure of 1008mb.

Eastern Pacific: There are no systems in this basin.

Western Pacific: There is a lot of activity in the Western Pacific again, as we have Tropical Storm Maliksi which is currently located to the East-Southeast of Tokyo Japan. It continues to drift slowly northward with estimated winds around 45kts and a pressure of 989mb. This storm should remain east of Japan. The second storm is located in the South China Sea and it is Tropical Storm Gaemi which has winds near 50kts and a pressure of 985mb. This storm is going to slowly move westward towards Vietnam. There is also an area of low pressure located near 11.8N and 155.8E. This feature has winds near 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb and has the possibility of gaining some strength over the next day or so.

ENSO Watch: We remain in the Neutral Phase but as we can see above the temps are still supportive of a developing El-Nino. The western boundary box is being watched for the potential development of El-Nino.

Oct 3, 2012 SST: We are watching the western zone as temps are nearing the 28-30C range which is where we may be seeing El-Nino develop in our “Western Box”.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook:

Cleveland OH: There are a few passing showers today which could lead to a slight chance of having some problems in the area. The 5th-7th a mix of rain and snow will lead to slight problems through those days

Gulfport MS: High pressure will keep the region quiet through the next five days with no impacts expected.

Fargo ND: Today there will be no impacts. However, tonight and into tomorrow, as an area of Snow develops around the region, there could be a moderate chance of impacts as snowfall may reach accumulations of 1-2 inches which could lead to slowing of travel.

Billings MT: Today a few passing rain/snow showers could create a slight impact on the region. Again on the 5th some light snow will move into the area creating a slight impact potential.

Phoenix AZ: The week ahead is going to be warm and very dry with no major impacts expected.

Climate Watch for September 28- October 2:

The Western United States has been dealing with some extreme heat. Temps have been running about 10-20 degrees above average in this area.

Cleveland OH: Temps have been running about 2-5 degrees below average, with the 2nd temps returning to about 1 degree above average.

Gulfport MS: Temps started about 1 degree above average followed by increased precipitation and temps below average between 4-9 degrees.

Fargo ND: Temps have been warm the entire period running anywhere from 7-22 degrees above average through the period.

Billings MT: Temps have been well above average in the area ranging from about 11-17 degrees above average.

Phoenix AZ: Temps started about 1-2 degrees above average followed by a warming trend with temps now running about 8-10 degrees above average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Oct 3, 2012:

Day 1-3: Developing low pressure moving into the Dakota´s today will be responsible for bringing cold rain and even snowfall to the region. Along with that, cold air will settle in to the region with very strong Northwest winds in excess of 25mph. The storm will move into Northern Minnesota and North Dakota providing the area a Winter Storm with some places seeing maybe 6inches of snowfall. A very cold Canadian high pressure center will begin to slide in to the Plains bringing some very cold air to the region.

Day 4-7: The low pressure center will start to impact the Northeast with the potential of seeing some lake effect snow along with a cold rain along the East Coast. An Alberta Clipper system will begin to move southward along the ND/SD border bringing another shot of some light snow to the region. High pressure will be over the Southeast and also a strong high pressure will begin to start blocking over the Pacific Ocean, with a potential cut off low forming west of California.

Day 8-12: A low pressure will develop near the Four Corners region and slowly drift to the Northeast around the Great Lakes region. Another strong high will build in behind it providing cold air for the potential of seeing more snow back in the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes region.

Day 13-15: A frontal boundary may be extending into the Pacific Northwest bringing rain showers to the region, also we could be looking at a Hurricane in the Eastern Pacific moving towards the Baja and possibly another tropical system moving up towards Bermuda.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Grand Forks ND:

Wednesday: “Winter Storm Watch” Look for cloudy skies with developing showers during the afternoon turning into a mix of rain/snow by late afternoon and then becoming all snow over night with a chance to see accumulations of up to 4 inches. Winds will be from the Northeast around 12-17 mph with higher gusts. High temps will be near 52F and then dropping to the low of 32F.

Thursday: “Winter Storm Watch for the AM hours” Mostly Cloudy with periods of snow during the morning hours becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon. Accumulations of 1 inch possible. Winds will be gusty from the Northwest at 15-20 mph with gusts near 40 mph. High temps will be near 37F and overnight lows around 32F.

Friday: Partly Cloudy with a few flurries as high temps will be near 36F, with an overnight low around 28F. Winds from the Northwest at 2-7mph.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy and cool with a high near 44F, look for winds to slowly shift to the southwest around 5-10mph and overnight lows around 30F.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy and warmer with high temps near 50F, winds from the Southeast around 2-7mph. Overnight lows will be around 37F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 3:

Question: What does the word "gradient" mean?

Answer: Gradient in weather means the closeness of lines of equality such as air pressure, air temperatures or event lines of equal winds. When looking at temperatures we call them isotherms, while pressure is referred to in isobars and winds are known as isotachs. These are very important in forecasting the weather as they can tell us how strong the winds are going to be, how warm the air temps will be and also how the pressure will be high or low.

* To have your question of the day answered or have your city spotlighted for the day make sure to visit redOrbit on Facebook.

Green Energy Weather Report for October 3:

Wave Energy: The Northeast is going to see interaction between a departing low pressure and an area of high pressure which will lead to an increase in wave height. Lake Superior will also see an increase in Northwesterly flow which will be very supportive of wave energy.

Solar Energy: The Southeast with a weak area of high pressure building in will provide the region with plenty of sunshine to generate energy. The Southwest is also dealing with plenty of sunshine so that solar energy will be good in the region today. The third location is the Pacific Northwest as an upper level ridge continues to provide plenty of sun to the region.

Wind Energy: The Northern Plains and Northwest Rockies will see very strong northwest winds setup behind the cold front which will provide winds in the range of 20-25mph which is very good for energy creation.

Hydro-Energy: The approaching low pressure will bring an increased chance of seeing moisture over the Northern part of the Missouri River from Eastern Montana, eastward into North Dakota and the Northern part of South Dakota.

**New Weather and Your Wallet*** We look at how you can use the weather to save money or how the weather will cost you money.

Weather and Your Wallet October 3:

If you have plans to eat lunch outside at the park to save some money it should be a great afternoon to do just that as temps will be in the upper 70´s. Also, if you own a restaurant that has outdoor seating, today would be a great day to attract the customers to your establishment.

Getting to work this morning will be smooth, however, as the winds start to pick up (and if you own a high profile vehicle), be ready to see your gas consumption increase as the winds will be very strong out of the Southwest which can lead to drag on your vehicle and strain along with a decrease in gas mileage.

A great day to head out to the mall for purchasing some winter clothes in preparation for this coming weekend and the huge temperature change that will occur.

Today the heating will be a small impact as the temps will remain warm enough that your heater should only have to run a bare minimum this evening giving you about 4.5HDD´s on the day.