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October 4, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 4, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 3: Polar Storm “1” has been moving through the upper Plains and Western Great Lakes bringing with it periods of cold rain, rain-snow mix and also snow to North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota. Some places have started to pick up anywhere from a dusting to a few inches. Severe weather was very limited yesterday as there was only one report of hail in Southern Illinois. Other than that it was a quiet day.

Big Story Discussion for October 3: Polar Storm “1” will continue to track towards the northeast into the Western Great Lakes. There is the chance to see some heavy snowfall from Grand Forks ND to International Falls MN - amounts of near 6-8 inches possible. The warm front will slowly start to push some moisture into the Northeast in the form of showers and thunderstorms. A very cold high pressure center will start to push in behind Polar Storm “1”. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will be dealing with warming conditions and partly cloudy skies, while the Southwest will be dealt another day of dry and hot conditions. The Northwest portion of the US will see partly cloudy skies and cooler temps. Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Buffalo NY: (Showers: 72F) | New Orleans LA: (Partly Cloudy: 84F) | Chicago IL: (Partly Cloudy: 72F) | Denver CO: (Partly Cloudy: 52F) | Seattle WA: (Sunny: 65F)

Big Story International Weather: Tropical Storm Maliksi will continue to bring strong winds and rain to most of Eastern Japan today. Another area of Low pressure over the Korea´s will bring scattered clouds and isolated showers to the region. The monsoonal rains will begin to return over Southeast Asia including India. High pressure over Europe will make for a nice day from Spain eastward into Germany and southward into Italy. A low pressure system to the north of England will bring showers to the region along with stronger winds. A strong low pressure system is moving over the southern tip of South America bringing with it strong winds and areas of showers. High pressure to the west of Australia will bring partly cloudy skies to the majority of the country.

October 4, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Nadine continues to slowly get absorbed into the passing frontal boundary to the north with winds near 40kts and a pressure of 1000mb. Tropical Storm Oscar is drifting off the coast of Africa and will eventually get turned back towards the Northeast with winds near 35kts and a pressure of 1006mb.

Continental United States: Polar Storm “1” is moving northeastward towards the Great Lakes packing winds of 30-45kts and will continue to strengthen as it moves northeast. Pressure is estimated around 998mb.

Eastern Pacific: There are no systems in this basin.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Maliksi is getting slowly absorbed into a passing frontal boundary to the Northeast of Tokyo Japan. Winds are around 45kts with a pressure of 989mb. Tropical Storm Gaemi is currently moving through the South China Sea with winds near 40kts and a pressure of 993mb. This storm will continue to move towards Vietnam. Another area of disturbed weather is located to the east of the Philippines this morning. Winds are around 15kts with a pressure of 1010mb.

South Indian Ocean: An area of disturbed weather has developed around 6.5S and 63.7E. Winds this morning are around 15kts with a pressure of 1010mb. This feature has the potential to strengthen over the next 24 hours.

ENSO Watch: All attention needs to be paid to the Western box of the El-Nino watch area as this is looking more and more likely to where El-Nino will develop which will lead to a certain weather pattern which we will begin to see take shape over the next few weeks.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 4-8:

Buffalo NY: There is a slight chance of seeing some thunderstorms or showers today that may slow traffic down. The 5th provides a chance of seeing some snowfall mix in with the rain which could lead to a moderate chance of impacts. The 6th will see another slight day of impacts.

New Orleans LA: A tranquil week in the making as there are no forecasted impacts to occur over the next five days.

Chicago IL: High pressure will begin to move into the area allowing for clearing skies and no impacts forecasted.

Denver CO: There is not going to be any impacts until the 5th with a few passing showers along with the 6th when the region may see some snowfall. Nothing significant at this time just enough to give people a headache.

Seattle WA: No major weather impacts anticipated for this week.

Climate Watch for September 29 - October 3:

Buffalo NY: The period started out cold as temps were about 2-4 degrees below average followed by a gradual warming over the last two day as temps are now running about 2-7 degrees above average.

New Orleans LA: A cold start as temps were running about 6 degrees below average, followed by a day with temps near normal and then another drop of temps by 3-8 degrees below, yesterday temps returned to near normal.

Chicago IL: Temps started out about 10 degrees above average followed by a cool down with temps running about 2-3 degrees below average and then temps were near normal for a day before falling  back to 5 degrees below average.

Denver CO: Temps started about 3 degrees above average followed by a cool down with temps falling to around 4-11 degrees below average and finished the period with temps back about 12 degrees above average.

Seattle WA: The region has been dealing with temps running about 3-9 degrees above average the entire period with the 2nd temps falling slightly below average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Oct 4, 2012:

Day 1-3: Low pressure will continue to move towards the Northeast into the Great Lakes region and behind it will be one of the coldest air masses of the season so far with many places going to see winter kills as temps drop into the 20´s. The strong high pressure system will dominate the weather during this time period.

Day 4-7: A weak area of low pressure will develop in the Mid-Tennessee River Valley and work its way up the East Coast, while another Alberta Clipper system will begin to move across the Northern Plains and the strong high will still be over a good portion of the US.

Day 8-12: Maine and parts of Vermont could be dealing with a significant storm system during this time period as yet another sharp burst of cold air moves in with the next high pressure center..

Day 13-15: The long range period is showing a high pressure center getting stuck along the Eastern Seaboard and that is creating a deep area of low pressure over the Northern Plains and the trailing cold front will extend into the Gulf Coast region where we could see a true taste of Severe Weather during this event.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Sioux City IA:.

Thursday: Partly Cloudy and cool with high temps near 59F, winds will be brisk out of the Northwest around 10-15mph, overnight lows will drop into the 30´s.

Friday: Partly Cloudy and cooler with high temps near 52F. Winds will be from the Northwest around 7-12mph as low temps drop into the hard freeze area of 25F.

Saturday: Another partly cloudy day with high temps near 48F, winds will be from the Northwest around 2-7mph with overnight lows falling to around 25F.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy and warmer as high temps rebound to around 59F. The winds will be from the Northwest around 5-10mph as overnight lows drop to around 33F.

Monday: Partly Cloudy and warm with high temps near 70F. The winds will shift to the Northeast around 7-12mph as overnight low temps drop to around 41F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 4:

Question: Why does it get warm when the winds blow down a hill or mountain?

Answer: This can be tested by anyone that lives near a mountain or a higher hill. What happens is when the wind blows down the side of the mountain it sinks. As its sinking it begins to warm. As it falls to the sides and valleys it is actually warmer than it was up at the top of the mountain. This is best known by the term Chinook winds, also commonly known as SnowEaters as they will melt the snow at a very rapid pace.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 3:

Wave Energy: The Great Lakes will be dealing with stronger winds that are going to lead to some good wave heights over the lakes, which make this the place of the day for wave energy.

Solar Energy: The Southeast with a weak area of high pressure building in will provide the region with plenty of sunshine to generate energy. The Southwest is also dealing with plenty of sunshine so solar energy will be good in the region today. The third location is the Pacific Northwest as an upper level ridge continues to provide plenty of sun to the region.

Wind Energy: Eastern North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota are going to be in the strongest gradient area of the storm which could easily provide usable winds and at times the winds may get to strong so make sure to be prepared if it gets too strong to shut them down.

Hydro-Energy: The heavy snow and rainfall accumulations that are occurring and what is forecasted to occur puts our Hydro-Energy into the Red River of Grand Forks as being the best spot for today.

***New Weather and Your Wallet*** We look at how you can use the weather to save money or how the weather will cost you money.

Weather and Your Wallet October 4 (Grand Forks ND):

If you have to travel to work today it might be best to pack a lunch from home as the dining out may not be very easy to do today. A great way to save some money! If you are looking for ideas to help make you feel better on such a blue snowy day, some nice, warm soup topped off with a cup of hot chocolate should make for a nice warming meal.

Driving today is going to be a challenge as it has been awhile since this area has been tested against driving in the snow. Also with the strong winds it will be blowing and drifting on the roads. Country roads make get challenging later on during the day.

The diehard shopper that needs to get out and shop until they drop today might want to look at the larger malls to shop in just for that fact that you will get to see many things and stay inside away from the elements.

When it comes to the house and keeping it warm it will take some heat to match the outside impacts. Based on a 65 degree day, we are looking at the potential to be around 30.5 HDD for the day.

***NEW Weather and Your Job*** Here we will examine any weather elements that may get in the way of your work for the day.

Weather and your Job for October 4 (Portland OR):

It should be a nice day to work outside as the weather looks to not have much of an impact on all the outdoor jobs in and around Portland today.

For all the construction workers that are hitting the street today, you are in luck. After a cool start to the morning it should be a very nice day to be outside working.

For anyone that has farm work, such as harvesting or clearing out old plots and getting ready to start the fall cleaning, today should be an excellent day for doing just that.

All the buses, trains, taxis and airplanes today should see an excellent day as there will be no impacts to slow your progression down allowing you to get to your places on time and deliver your customers safely to their destination.

If your company is holding an outdoor event or you are helping to setup for an outdoor event, today is a great day to host those type of venues in the area as the weather will be very nice - not too hot and no rain in the forecast.