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Big Story Weather – October 5, 2012

October 5, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 4: The first big winter storm of the season has now pushed into Canada. However, in its wake it left places in North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota dealing with snowfall amounts of 2-14 inches. A fairly tranquil as there were only a few reports of severe weather. The cold air was a big story as some places in Montana and the Dakotas dealt with overnight lows into the 20´s.

Weather Outlook for October 5: The frontal boundary associated with the low in Canada will bring a few showers to the Ohio River Valley along with some thunderstorms to the Missouri and Arkansas region today. High pressure out west will make for a nice day from the Plains back to the West Coast and also along the Gulf Coast. Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Baltimore MD: (Partly Cloudy: 83F) | Atlanta GA: (Partly Cloudy: 82F) | Dallas TX: (Partly Cloudy: 74F) | Rapid City SD: (Partly Cloudy: 41F) | Las Vegas NV: (Sunny: 86F)

International Weather Outlook: Low pressure north of the Korea´s will bring partly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers to the region. The monsoonal trough will be active along the Southeast portion of Asia again today for places like India. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while a frontal boundary over England will bring showers and increased cloudiness over Western Europe. A very strong low pressure system will be moving across the Eastern Atlantic towards Spain over the next few days bringing with it very strong winds and high seas. A frontal boundary will be extending through portions of South America along the Southern tip creating an increase in gradient winds along with showers and cloudy skies. High pressure over Western Australia will bring nice conditions to the entire country today with partly cloudy skies.

October 5, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: Nadine has finally been absorbed into a frontal boundary and is going to be gone soon. However, we still have Tropical Storm Oscar which is headed eastward back towards Africa and should cause no immediate impacts with winds around 45kts and a pressure of 998mb.

Continental United States: No Major Systems.

Eastern Pacific: There are no systems in this basin.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Gaemi continues to head towards Vietnam and is forecasted to make landfall over the next few days. Winds are around 40kts with a pressure of 993mb. There will be a small intensification of the system before it makes landfall. There is also an area of low pressure located near Guam that has winds around 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb. This feature may strengthening a little over time. There is another area of low pressure which is about due east of Okinawa. This area also has winds around 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb.

South Indian Ocean: An area of disturbed weather has developed around 7.8S and 61.0E. The winds this morning are around 15kts with a pressure of 1010mb. This feature has the potential to strengthen over the next 24hrs as it continues to move slowly towards the Southwest.

ENSO Watch: All attention needs to be paid to the Western box of the El-Nino watch area as this is looking more and more likely to where El-Nino will develop which will lead to a certain weather pattern which we will begin to see take shape over the next few weeks.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for Oct 5-9:

Baltimore MD: A fairly tranquil week in store until the 7th when there will be a slight chance of seeing some thunderstorms move through the area leading to slight impacts.

Atlanta GA: The next five days look very good for the region as high pressure will control the weather allowing for nice days and little moisture.

Dallas TX: No major impacts for the 5th. However, on the 6th there is a slight chance to see some impacts move through the area – they will be more day time limited events.

Rapid City SD: A quiet week is in store for the region as temps will be rather cool for the period, however it will also be fairly dry.

Las Vegas NV: High pressure will leave the area high and dry and temps will be fairly warm through the entire period.

Climate Watch for September 30 – October 4:

Baltimore MD: The 30th through the 2nd temps were just at or just below average, while the 3rd and 4th temps rose to about 9-10 degrees above average.

Atlanta GA: Temps have been running about 2-6 degrees below average, by the 4th temps returned to about 6 degrees above average.

Dallas TX: Temps started the 30th about 9 degrees below average followed by a near average day and then the 3rd and 4th temps have been running about 4-6 degrees above average.

Rapid City SD: The 30th started out rather warm with temps running about 13 degrees above average followed by a brief return to average and then back above average running 18 degrees above average for the 2nd and then a cold front brought temps back to about 9-18 degrees below average.

Las Vegas NV: The entire period the temps have been running about 9-17 degrees above average as high pressure has been brining dry and warm air to the region.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 5, 2012:

Day 1-3: Frontal boundary will move through the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast, while a strong area of high pressure slowly starts to move in over the Northern Plains and bring some colder conditions to the area.

Day 4-7: A clipper system will move through Northern Minnesota and may bring some light snow with it. Another area of strong high pressure will begin to slide into the Northern Plains at the same time a strong low pressure system will be moving through the Northeast bringing with it some moderate rains and very possibly some snow.

Day 8-12: The Eastern US will be dealing with a strong high pressure system, while the Southwest will be seeing the formation of a new low pressure system that will begin to develop over the Four Corners region and a frontal boundary will drape through the Northwest. The low pressure system will rapidly develop and intensify and move towards the Northern Plains by Day 10.  Day 11-12 there could be some very strong to severe thunderstorms setting up along the warm front in the Ohio River Valley all the way southward along the cold front into Texas.

Day 13-15: The low pressure system will move up the East Coast bringing plenty of rainfall to the region. A weak area of high pressure will begin to take shape back in the Plains region, while another frontal boundary begins to setup over the Pacific Northwest. We could be looking at a tropical system heading towards the Baja during this time as well.

Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Aberdeen SD:

Friday: Partly Cloudy and cool with high temps in the upper 40´s. Winds will be from the Northwest at around 10-15mph. Overnight lows will drop to near 27F.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy and cool with high temps near 50F. Winds shifting to the Southwest around 7-12mph. Overnight lows will be near 30F.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy and warmer with high temps near 60F. Look for the winds to be from the Southwest around 7-12mph. Overnight lows dropping to around 41F.

Monday: Partly Cloudy and nice with high temps near 61F. Winds will be from the Northwest at 7-12mph. Overnight lows will get to around 36F.

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy with a few showers and colder with high temps near 50F. Winds will be from the Northwest around 7-12mph. Overnight lows will drop to around 30F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 5:

Question: What is lake effect snow?

Answer: To answer this it is first important to understand that during the summer the Great Lakes get warm. This warmth takes time to get rid of. That is why during the fall and early winter when the lakes are still warm and cold air passes over them we see these snow events occur. What happens is that cold air likes to sink and at the same time warm air likes to rise. This mixing of air creates an unstable atmosphere allowing for these events to be triggered by a frontal boundary that passes over the area.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 5:

Wave Energy: The frontal boundary moving through the Great Lakes will make this region a good place for wave generated energy again today.

Solar Energy: The Southeast, with a weak area of high pressure building in, will provide the region with plenty of sunshine to generate energy. The Southwest is also dealing with plenty of sunshine so solar energy will be good in the region today. The third location is the Pacific Northwest as an upper level ridge continues to provide plenty of sun to the region.

Wind Energy: The strong Northwest winds on the back side of the front will create some good wind energy through the Upper Great Lakes region.

Hydro-Energy: The frontal boundary will move through the Ohio River Valley allowing the region to pick up some water and help enhance the hydro energy cycle along the Ohio River.

***New Weather and Your Wallet*** We look at how you can use the weather to save money or how the weather will cost you money.

Weather and Your Wallet October 5 (Seattle WA):

If you are looking to go out for breakfast this morning you may want to attend an indoor restaurant as the temps are tad cool. This afternoon a homemade lunch will save you money and will be an excellent idea at the parks. If you are going out this evening to eat a jacket will be needed and it is highly encouraged to attend an indoor venue so that you can enjoy the meal without shivering.

Driving, biking, and walking should be easily done today as the weather will be really nice for them. Also, to save some money, today would be an excellent day to take the bike or walk this afternoon during lunch or if your house is near walking will be great.

For all those avid shoppers, today is going to be a great day to look at any outdoor sales that may be going on and also the outdoor areas of the shopping center looking for those fall decorations.

When it comes to heating the house, it should be a fairly easy task. This evening, ass the temps drop, it may be needed to warm the area back up as we are looking for 13.5 HDD today.

***NEW Weather and Your Job*** Here we will examine any weather elements that may get in the way of your work for the day.

Weather and your Job for October 5 (Chicago IL):

For today the Chicago area is going to see a mix of clouds and rain showers. The heaviest rain looks like it will fall during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Construction companies are going to need to take things slowly this morning as a few showers are moving through the area. However, the work can continue this afternoon. There may be a time when the rain gets heavy creating a hard time for workers.

Farmers will have the best luck this morning getting into the fields and getting the animals fed . However, this afternoon the heavier rain will create a slow-down.

Transportation from vehicles on the roads to airplanes in the sky should all do fairly good today with not too much trouble from the rain showers. There may as the volume tends to pick up a slight impact on flights in and out of the O´Hare Airport.

Between the colder temps and the rain showers that will be moving in, It will be a hard day for outdoor venues from concerts to people that are working for a big business. However, those that are required to be outside should make sure to dress properly to keep you from getting too cold.


Source: redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

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