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October 10, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 10, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 9: The big chill continued as it pushed south and east overnight into the Midwest and also the Tennessee River Valley. Behind it strong winds were in the range of 15-30mph over the Dakota´s pushing that colder air into the region. There were no major severe weather events on the day as most of the country was dry and cold.

Weather Outlook for October 10: Frontal boundary moving through the Eastern Great Lakes region will bring windy conditions along with cold rain showers. Behind it back in the Northern Plains strong winds will be in place today as the flow returns to the southwest providing the chance for a fire danger. High pressure over the Arkansas region will bring partly cloudy skies to the Gulf Coast and Southeast today, while a weak disturbance may provide some thunderstorms to the Houston and Galveston region. The west will remain dry one more day.

*There is the potential to see a potent severe weather outbreak from Texas northward into Iowa on Friday Night through Saturday*

Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Buffalo NY: (Cloudy with Rain: 54F) | Orlando FL: (Partly Cloudy: 81F) | Kansas City MO: (Partly Cloudy: 56F) | Boise ID: (Partly Cloudy: 65F) | Los Angeles CA: (Partly Cloudy: 71F)

International Weather Outlook for October 10: Low pressure to the West of Korea will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea´s and a slight chance of rain to Western Japan. The monsoonal trough over Southeast Asia will provide some moderate rain to India and Pakistan today and other parts of Southeast Asia outside of the diurnal showers. Low pressure over Northeast Europe will bring showers and extensive cloudiness to Eastern Europe, while high pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Western Europe and a Low pressure moving through England will bring showers to the region. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to portions of South America and the Southern Tip. Low pressure will bring showers to Eastern Australia, while High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Western Australia. Below is the forecast for a few select cities this evening.

Tokyo: (Partly Cloudy: 15C) | Seoul: (Partly Cloudy: 14C) | Hong Kong: (Partly Cloudy: 16C) | Singapore: (Cloudy: 21C) | Sydney: (Mostly Cloudy 19C)

October 10, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: This morning we are watching two areas of concern. The first is an area to the east-northeast of Florida. This feature will be absorbed into the frontal boundary and should create no impacts as the winds are around 20kts with a pressure of 1013mb. The second feature looks a little more impressive as it´s located to the east of South America with winds around 30kts and pressure of 1009mb.

Eastern Pacific: No significant weather in the Region.

Gulf of Alaska: A very strong 968mb low pressure is moving towards Alaska. This feature will bring strong winds, heavy rain and high seas to the region and a piece of this energy will move towards the Pacific Northwest over the next few days.

Western Pacific: Typhoon Prapiroon is still moving slowly to the north and will soon make a turn to the northeast with winds estimated around 85kts and a pressure of 959mb.

South Indian Ocean: One feature is being watched today in this region as it continues to show signs of developing into a tropical feature within the next few days. Winds are around 30kts with a pressure of 1000mb.

ENSO Watch: Some interesting research that I conducted has made me believe that we may already be in the El-Nino phase as there was a pretty significant shift in Climate Change Degree Days over a few locations in the Southern part of the United States to make me believe the shift has begun.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 10-14:

Buffalo NY: The 12th looks like there will be a chance of a few thunderstorms or heavy rain showers moving in which will create a slight impact to the region, and again on the 14th there is a slight chance of seeing impacts.

Orlando FL: A very nice week in store with no impacts forecasted to occur.

Kansas City MO: The 10th and 11th will be nice, however things rapidly change on the 12th as there will be a slight chance of impacts from a developing low pressure center with the 13th looking to see a potential of a severe weather outbreak which will lead this region into a strong chance of seeing impacts.

Boise ID: A quiet week in store with no impacts forecasted.

Los Angeles CA: Today looks fine, however the 11th shows signs of having moderate impacts as the upper level low finally begins to push into the region and will bring the chance of seeing some thunderstorms in the basin. This is a typical event of El-Nino.

Climate Watch for October 5-9:

Buffalo NY: The 5th started out about 3 degrees above average followed by a prolonged cooling period with temps ranging from 3-13 degrees below average.

Orlando FL: Temps have been fairly close to average for the past five days ranging from 1-4 degrees above average.

Kansas City MO: Temps have been very cold these past five days with the 5th and 6th temps around 20-25 degrees below average, followed by a slight warming as temps for the 7th-9th became to around 3-13 degrees below average.

Boise ID: Temps started out about 9 degrees below average and slowly warmed the entire period to the 9th where they were about 2 degrees above average.

Los Angeles CA: Temps have been around 1 degree below all the way upwards to 3 degrees above average for the entire 5 day period.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 10, 2012:

Day 1-3: A frontal boundary will bring a few passing showers to the Eastern portion of the Great Lakes region and also the upper level low pushing over Southern California will start to bring showers and thunderstorms to this region. High pressure moving in over the Central plains will bring a nice day to this region and also into the Gulf Coast.

Day 4-7: The upper level low feature will start to deepen a surface low in the Southern Rockies that will start to bring some heavy rainfall to the region and also some strong thunderstorms will be possible. The East coast will be under high pressure, while the Pacific Northwest will start to feel the effects of the frontal boundary moving onshore. Day 5 has the frontal boundary and associated low pressure moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains bringing with it the potential of having a significant severe weather outbreak.

Day 8-12: A low pressure will break off the Pacific feature and begin to move down through Alberta bringing with it showers to the Northern Plains and also the Great Lakes region.

Day 13-15: The combination of tropical moisture moving in over the Southwest and also a piece of energy coming out of the Rockies really needs to be watched as it could become a strong severe weather maker. Also on the back side of this storm we could be dealing with a winter storm. By Day 14 another significant low pressure system will exit the Rockies and move across the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region. We may also be watching a tropical wave towards the Southeast of Florida during this time period.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Watertown SD:

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy and mild with a high near 56F, winds will be from the Southwest around 10-15mph with higher gust. Look for overnight lows to drop around 33F.

Thursday: Partly Cloudy and cold with a high near 49F, winds will be from the Southeast around 5-10mph and overnight lows will be around 27F.

Friday: Mostly Cloudy and warmer as high temps return to around 56F, with winds from the Southeast around 10-15mph, look for overnight lows to be around 40F.

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of Rain Showers as temps will be near 60F, look for temps to start falling early as the cold front passes and the winds will shift to the Northwest around 10-15mph along with overnight lows falling to around 34F. Total Rainfall may be near 0.25in.

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy with a high near 60F, winds will return to the Southwest around 7-12mph as overnight lows drop to around 44F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 10:

Question: What is a metar weather observation?

Answer: A metar observation is a weather report that is generated by weather stations and for the National Weather Service. The official reports are taken between 55 and 59 minutes past the hour. If something significant starts to happen then a weather report is taken as needed. These weather reports are used for helping the weather models and also plotting surface weather charts to identify where certain weather features are located. There are various types of weather reports one is the metar, another is called a special which is used to indicate something significant has begun to occur at the weather station.

*** To have your question of the day answered or have your city spotlighted for the day make sure to visit redOrbit on Facebook. ***

Green Energy Weather Report for October 10:

Wave Energy: The frontal boundary and interaction with a tropical wave will bring a moderate chop to the Southeast coast today. We are also looking at that upper level low moving onshore tonight near Southern California which will lead to some great waves in this region for making energy and also the approaching frontal boundary in the Pacific Northwest will bring some wave energy to this region as well.

Solar Energy: Today the best locations will be in the Southwest for one more day along with the Central Plains region as high pressure moves into the region, which will also bring a nice solar day to the Gulf Coast also.

Wind Energy: The returning southerly winds over the Dakota´s will bring a nice push of wind energy to the region.

Hydro-Energy: A good place for energy today will be around Lake Erie as a frontal boundary brings a few showers across the region.

October 10 Weather and Your Wallet (Portland OR):

Dining: A very nice day to head out to the park and eat lunch, or for sitting at one of the outdoor restaurants. Get some fresh air and unwind from the work environment during your lunch hour today!

Transportation: If you live in town, today would be a very nice day to save some money and walk to work or even ride a bike or catch the Mass Transit system.

Shopping: Today is a great day to head out and do your final shopping before this next storm system begins to move into the area and brings rain for the first time in some time to the region. Might be time to head out and purchase that umbrella today!

Electricity: A cool morning followed by a very nice day should alleviate the need for using the air conditioner, however overnight tonight you may need the heater for a 6.0HDD period between 12AM and 6AM tomorrow.

Agriculture: Heading out to the wine will be a nice day to harvest those grapes tor any other fall preps that need to be done around the farm or the yard.

Construction: Today will be a good day for construction so watch out, it will be in full force along with any window high rise cleaning that needs to be done.

Outdoor Venues: This afternoon will provide a good mix of sun and nice cool temps making any outdoor venue planned for today a great one, even if it´s just taking a walk in the park. Later this evening it will start to cool off so if you plan on attending a night event make sure to take a jacket with you.

Weather Changer for October 10:

Area #1: The strong low pressure system has begun to approach the Gulf of Alaska and the associated frontal boundary will start making its way into the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days. Anticipate to see the first measurable rainfall in a long time for this region.

Area #2: The upper level low will begin to push onshore this evening and start bringing showers and thunderstorms to the LA Basin and the rest of Southern California. This feature will slowly start pushing eastward towards the Southern Rockies over the next couple of days.

Area #3: The high pressure center is beginning to move into the Southern Plains and will bring dry conditions to the Gulf Coast and cooler temps again tonight. It will also slowly start to shift eastward over the next couple of days.