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October 11, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 11, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 10: The cold air continued across the Tennessee River Valley as frost and freeze warnings were in effect for the region. Also showers skirted through the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast. The big anticipated low pressure finally pushed on shore over the California region bringing some rain to Southern California for the first time in a very long time. Severe weather was found in Central California with one report of hail.

Weather Outlook for October 11: A weak clipper system is moving through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes bringing a few isolated showers to the region. High pressure is building in over the Southeast which will bring cooler weather. Another high pressure system is building in over the Northern Plains and Montana. This area will also slide southeast over the next few days. The potent upper level low has finally pushed on shore over Southern California. Now rapid intensification is forecasted for this feature as it develops over the Southwestern part of the United States bringing with it some strong thunderstorms to places in Arizona and New Mexico.

Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Baltimore MD: (Partly Cloudy: 54F) | Atlanta GA: (Partly Cloudy: 72F) | Oklahoma City OK: (Partly Cloudy/Evening Thunderstorms: 76F) | Fargo ND: (Partly Cloudy: 45F) | Seattle  WA: (Partly Cloudy/Evening Showers: 68F)

International Weather Outlook for October 11: High pressure northwest of the Korea´s will bring nice weather to the region today to include Japan. Southeast Asia will be dry today with areas of dust likely for places like India. A very warm and dry day is expected in the Middle East as well. Low pressure near pushing across Western Europe will bring cloudy skies and showers to Spain and France and southward. Another area of low pressure over England will keep the weather cool and rainy for the region. High pressure to the East of the Southern tip of South America will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. A large area of high pressure will bring very nice conditions to the majority of Australia today.

Below is the forecast for a few select cities this evening.

New Delhi: (Partly Cloudy/Dust: 32C) | Seoul: (Partly Cloudy: 17C) | Hong Kong: (Partly Cloudy: 21C) | Singapore: (Cloudy: 24C) | Sydney: (Mostly Cloudy 13C) | Tokyo: (Partly Cloudy: 17C)

October 11, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: Two areas of concern this morning. The first is to the East of Florida, however this area continues to slowly get absorbed into the frontal boundary and should not be any impact to the United States. The second feature which is located near the coast of South America has currently got winds near 30kts and a pressure of 1008mb. This area will slowly show signs of development over the next 36hrs.

Eastern Pacific: A new area of concern has just pushed off the coast of Central America and this morning has winds near 20kts with a pressure of 1009mb. This area will slowly develop as it pushes westward.

Gulf of Alaska: The strong area of low pressure has begun to push into Alaska, while a frontal boundary extends from it and will push towards the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days.

Western Pacific: Typhoon Prapiroon is still moving slowly to the north and will soon make a turn to the north-northeast with winds estimated around 90kts and a pressure of 956mb.

South Indian Ocean: A feature located well south of India in the Central part of the Indian Ocean currently has winds around 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb. It is showing signs of slow strengthening over the next couple of days.

ENSO Watch: The upper level low that is pushing through the Southwest part of the United States is another typical El-Nino feature that is beginning to evolve.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 11-15:

Baltimore MD: The 11th through the 14th look to be tranquil across the region, however by the 15th a frontal boundary moving through the area may bring some showers which will bring with it a slight impact to the region.

Atlanta GA: The 11-12th looks to be nice with high pressure, however the 13th a frontal boundary will move through the area bringing with it a chance of seeing thunderstorms which could lead to slight impacts in the region.

Oklahoma City OK: The developing low pressure to the west is going to have some major impacts over the area the next few days with the potential of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms allowing for a Strong impact on the 12th with a slight impact today and also a moderate impact on the 13th.

Fargo ND: High pressure moving in from Montana will bring partly cloudy skies to the region and no impacts are forecasted.

Seattle WA: The frontal boundary will begin pushing onshore this evening and then it will bring with it a persistent few days of showers which could lead to slight impacts for the next five days in the region.

Climate Watch for October 6-10:

A big weather pattern shift has been setting up as a good portion of the United States has been dealing with cooler than average temps.

Baltimore MD: The 6th brought temps about 9 degrees above average followed by a sharp cold air mass where temps fell to around 8-17 degrees below average and by the 10th temps were back to average.

Atlanta GA: The 6th was about 7 degrees above average followed by a sharp cool down with temps falling to around 1-12 degrees below average over the past few days.

Oklahoma City: A very cold polar air mass has been in place over the region bringing temps down about 24-27 degrees on the 6th and 7th followed by a slight warm up with temps ranging from about 1-11 degrees below average.

Fargo ND: Temps started about 13 degrees below average and have slowly warmed to around 2-6 degrees below average while the 9th temps were again 17 degrees below average.

Seattle WA: The 6th through the 8th enjoyed temps about 7-12 degrees above average, followed by a cooler pattern as now temps are about 1-8 degrees below average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 11, 2012:

Day 1-3: The developing low over the Southwest United States is going to play a major role in some weather changes in the region from severe weather to even higher elevation snowfall in the Rockies. High pressure over the East will bring a nice few days to the region.

Day 4-7: A surface frontal system will move into the Northern Plains bringing with it a moderate chance of seeing strong thunderstorms. Along with that there will be heavy rainfall in the region. The Pacific Northwest will be dealing with the frontal boundary giving it some of the heaviest rainfall in a long time. The 6th day will see the Pacific Storm system move through and clip the northern states with some light rain for the most part during this time period.

Day 8-12: The low pressure center will move in towards the Great Lakes and the frontal boundary will extend back to the Southwest into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region. This feature may have enough support that we could be looking at strong to possibly severe storms over the Southern United States.

Day 13-15: Another low pressure system will kick in through the Alberta region and drape across the Northern Plains. This feature may have enough cold air wrapped into it that we could be dealing with a significant snow maker over the Great Lakes region as the cold northwesterly winds pick up the warm waters and possibly convert it into snowfall.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for New Delhi India (All Temps are in degrees C):

Friday: Partly Cloudy with periods of dust throughout the day. Look for high temps to be around 32C. Winds will be light from the Northwest around 5-10mph. Overnight lows will fall to around 21C.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high near 32C. Winds will be light from the Northwest. Overnight lows will fall to around 20C.

Sunday: Another partly cloudy day as high temps rise to around 33C. Look for the winds to be around 33C as winds will shift to the southwest around 8mph. Overnight lows will fall to around 20C.

Monday: Partly Cloudy and warm again as high temps rise to around 32C. Look for the winds to be light out of the Southwest again around 8mph. Overnight lows will fall to around 20C.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy and warm again as high temps get near 33C. Winds will be from the Southwest around 7mph. Overnight lows will be around 21C.

Ask The Weatherman for October 11:

Question: Can it snow when the temperatures are above 32F?

Answer: A great question today! The answer to this is complex. However, the simple answer is yes. It can snow with the surface temp being above 32F. What we have to look at is what is called the vertical profile of the atmosphere over the location in question. Snow is formed by temps being below freezing. If there is what is referred to as a shallow layer of warm air near the surface, but the layer is not deep enough that the snow is unable to melt before it hits the ground, this would lead to snow above 32F.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 11:

Wave Energy: The upper level low moving across the southwest is bringing some strong northerly winds over Southern California's open waters creating some good wave energy. Also the frontal boundary approaching the Pacific Northwest is creating some good wave action in that region. The interaction between the frontal boundary and the tropical feature is creating some larger waves over the Southeast.

Solar Energy: Today´s best solar energy locations will be in the Tennessee River Valley along with the Gulf Coast and also the Southern Plains and Northern Plains as high pressure is in control of these regions.

Wind Energy: The best place for wind energy today is going to be in the Southwest where the low pressure is beginning to take shape. It will lead to some strong gradient in the region.

Hydro-Energy: The moisture moving into the Four Corners region is going to make this a prime spot for hydro energy on any of the major water ways such as the Colorado River.

October 11 Weather and Your Wallet (Dallas TX):

Dining: The best avenue for dining today will be indoor places as the fog this morning will leave a gloomy feeling in the air along with a chance of seeing isolated showers. The cheapest for your budget today is taking a lunch from home and enjoying it indoors.

Transportation: The fog is going to make for some major delays during rush hour. Along with that the bus and trains will be running slower. The best thing for today is to take public transportation and deal with the delays as this will keep you from having to waste gas in the slower than normal commute.

Shopping: Today is not a day for outdoor shopping. Between the dreary fog and the isolated showers today it´s a perfect time for hitting the indoor malls and to purchase that umbrella for this weekend.

Electricity: The temps today are going to warm up once the fog burns off and this will lead to a day that we will be seeing the CDD´s approach 10.5, which means that between 12PM and 8-PM the air conditioners may need to run to keep the temps comfortable at work and home. This could lead to slightly higher electricity usage today.

Agriculture: Farmers should take it slow this morning as the fog will make it hard to see. However, once the fog burns off, you then may be dealing with isolated showers which could slow production down for any field work.

Construction: The fog this morning will make it a slow for any road work due to the visibility issues. Also this afternoon, as the winds start to pick up, any high profile work will be slowed by stronger winds which could lead to some delays.

Outdoor Venues: Today may not be a good day for outdoor venues as the fog this morning, followed by the chance of seeing some isolated showers, could lead to a loss of profit for anything held outdoors.

Weather Changer for October 11:

Area #1: This evening the frontal boundary will begin to finally approach the Northwest and this will lead to the formation of showers over the next few days for this region, which is welcomed by many after such a long dry spell in the region.

Area #2: The upper level low is finally pushing inwards towards the Southwest US and will develop a surface low later today. This feature will bring a chance of severe storms to the Southwest and also the Rockies may get some snow out of this event.

Area #3: The high pressure is going to be shifting towards the East today bringing with it a chance for frost and freezing conditions over the Southern Appalachian mountains and also dry weather to the Southeast.