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October 12, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 12, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 11: The upper level low that was over California brought some rain to the area for the first time in a while. Elsewhere a high pressure center over the East brought some of the coldest air of the year to the region. Tropical Storm Patty developed overnight and should continue to track southwestward over the next 24hrs.

Weather Outlook for October 12: The continued development of the Southwestern Low will bring severe weather into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle overnight and also the potential of snow into the Colorado Rockies where Winter Storm watches are in place already. This feature will move eastward over the weekend possibly creating a significant severe weather outbreak over the Central Plains. Tropical Storm Patty will slowly drift southwestward and possibly dissipate over the weekend. Strong cold high pressure will shift over the Great Lakes and bring frost and freeze watches and warnings to the Northeast for tonight.

Below is the weather for a few select cities.

New York NY: (Partly Cloudy: 54F) | Houston TX: (Partly Cloudy: 83F) | Kansas City MO: (Partly Cloudy/Evening Thunderstorms: 66F) | Billings MT: (Partly Cloudy: 75F) | Portland OR: (Mostly Cloudy/Evening showers: 59F)

International Weather Outlook for October 12: Low pressure is going to move over Northern Korea bringing mostly cloudy skies and a few showers to the region of the Korea´s and eastward possibly into Japan. The monsoonal trough will again reinforce moisture to Southeast Asia also Typhoon Prapiroon will continue to slowly track northward away from the Philippines. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while low pressure will bring showers to England and Western Europe today. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the Southern tip of South America and High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the majority of Australia, while the Western portion near Perth may see an increase in clouds with the approaching low pressure system to the west.

Below is the forecast for Manila Philippines.

Saturday look for Rain and Thunderstorms as the high approaches 89F. Winds will be West-southwesterly around 5-12mph and overnight lows will be around 75F.

Sunday will be partly cloudy as high temps reach near 90F, while overnight lows fall to around 75F.

Monday will become partly cloudy with a high near 89F and overnight lows falling to around 74F.

Tuesday will again be partly cloudy with a high near 90F and overnight lows around 76F.

Wednesday will see morning showers, otherwise partly cloudy with a high temperature of 87F and an overnight low temperature of 74F.

Thursday will be partly sunny with a high temperature around 88F and an overnight low temperature of 77F.

October 12, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: This morning we have Tropical Storm Patty which is located of the coast of Florida and will slowly move southwestward towards Cuba. Winds are around 35kts with a pressure of 1006mb. Another area that will become a tropical depression or storm later today is located Northeast of South America with winds around 30kts and a pressure of 1006mb.

Eastern Pacific: The feature located off the coast of Central America has winds around 25kts and a pressure of 1007mb. This weekend this feature will become another Tropical in the region.

Gulf of Alaska: The strong low has begun to dissipate over land and a new low is moving in behind it bringing another round of rain, strong winds and high seas to the region.

Western Pacific: Typhoon Prapiroon is still moving slowly to the north and will continue to get stronger probably becoming a Super Typhoon this weekend as winds are currently around 100kts with a pressure of 948mb. This storm is starting to take a slight turn towards the Northwest and could become a threat to mainland Japan by next week. A low pressure has also developed just to the east of Prapiroon with winds near 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb.

South Indian Ocean: A feature located well south of India in the Central part of the Indian Ocean currently has winds around 30kts and a pressure of 1000mb. It is showing signs of slow strengthening over the next couple of days and is well on its way to become a named storm by this weekend.

ENSO Watch: We remain in a neutral phase, however indications are out there such as that Pacific Low that moved on shore and the development of more tropical activity that El-Nino (Weak) could be in place, which will impact our winter weather.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for Oct 12-16:

New York NY: The 12 and 13th will remain tranquil and cool, however by the 14th and 15th there could be some showers and isolated thunderstorms that move into the region bringing a slight chance of having impacts.

Houston TX: A quiet start to the period with a slight impact day possible on the 14th with a few thunderstorms along the trailing edge of the cold front.

Kansas City MO: Today thunderstorms will start to move into the region bringing a slight impact to the area, however the big day of concern is going to be the 13th when we could be seeing severe weather in the region bringing the area under the potential of seeing strong impacts.

Billings MT: A nice week ahead no major weather events forecasted for the next five days.

Portland OR: A frontal boundary along the coast will provide much needed rain to the region over the next five days which could lead to some slight impacts around the area.

Climate Watch for October 7-11:

The colder air associated with back to back high pressure systems have really set the stage for many places recording colder than normal Octobers.

New York NY: Temps started out the 7th about 9 degrees below average and have stayed below average all the way to the 9th and then a brief one day 2 degrees above average on the 10th and then the 11th quickly back to below average by 6 degrees.

Houston TX: Cold air has been in place from the 7th and 8th as temps were about 8-16 degrees below average. Temps have been warming over the past few days with temps now about 5-6 degrees above average.

Kansas City MO: A very cold week has been going on in the region as temps have been around 5-13 degrees below average, while the 11th temps have risen to about 4 degrees above average.

Billings MT: The past five days have found the region dealing with temps about 2-18 degrees below average for the period.

Portland OR: The period started about 2-9 degrees above average followed by two days of temps being right at average.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Oct 12, 2012:

Day 1-3: The low pressure moving through the Southwest will enter into the Southern Plains and then northeastward into the Great Lakes. This storm has enough power that it could become a major severe weather maker over the weekend in these regions. The second feature we are watching is the high pressure area moving into the Northeast and the strong cold air that it´s bringing with it creating some frost and freeze warnings for the region tonight. Tropical Storm Patty will continue to track slowly southwestward away from Florida.

Day 4-7: Frontal boundary over the Northwest Pacific will continue to bring showers to this region as well as a developing low pressure over the Texas and Mexico region associated with the tropical feature off the coast of Mexico will begin to start impacting the region, high pressure again will be back over the Eastern 1/3 of the United States by Day 6 we could have ourselves another significant severe weather outbreak on its way.

Day 8-12: The low pressure will make its way up into the Northeast, the tropical system in the Pacific will continue to head out to sea and weaken.  An area of high pressure will begin to move in over the Pacific Northwest and shift towards the east during this time period.

Day 13-15: A potent storm system will enter the Pacific Northwest during this time and spread into the Rockies, creating the potential of seeing some snowfall in the Cascades and into the Rockies over this time period. The middle of this period could be dominated by a potent storm system in the Central part of the United States with severe weather in the warm sector and a potential for a heavy snow maker in the cold sector.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Aberdeen SD:

Friday: Partly Cloudy and cool with a high near 56F, winds will be from the Southeast around 8-13mph as overnight lows fall to around 41F.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy with periods of Mostly Cloudy high temps near 70F, winds will start Southeast but once the front clears the area winds will rapidly shift to the Northwest around 7-12mph as overnight lows drop to around 39F.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy and cooler with high temps near 60F, winds will become Southwesterly 5-10mph along with overnight lows around 40F.

Monday: Partly Cloudy and warmer with high temps near 75F, while overnight lows fall to around 47F.

Tuesday: A nice day with partly cloudy skies and high temps near 75F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 12:

Question: Why does weather move from West to East in the Northern Hemisphere?

Answer: To answer this question we need to look at what is called the Westerly´s. At about 20,000-30,000ft there is a strong belt of winds known as the Jet Stream which blows the winds from the West to the East and this causes all of our pressure systems to follow suite with this movement of direction.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 12:

Wave Energy: The waves will become large to the Southeast of Florida as the tropical storm continues to move towards the southeast. The frontal boundary approaching the Pacific Northwest will also create some good wave energy in this region.

Solar Energy: The Gulf Coast again today will be a nice day for solar energy along with the Ohio River valley and up into the Northeast will all be good places for solar power.

Wind Energy: The strong southerly winds in the Plains will make this area a great day to absorb some wind energy from nature as the front begins to approach the area.

Hydro-Energy: The increase in moisture over the Texas Panhandle will lead to improved flow over the rivers in this region such as the Rio Grande area.

October 12 Weather and Your Wallet (Kansas City MO):

Dining: If you have plans to eat outside, this morning may be a tad chilly. However lunch time will be the best time as this evening is going to deteriorate and make it hard to enjoy an outdoor meal, for supper looks like a stay at home kind of day.

Transportation: Things should run smooth for the morning commute. However by this evening be ready for delays at the airports and also traffic will start to slow down if the rain moves in fast enough to meet the rush hour.

Shopping: You will want to get your shopping done this morning as tonight does not look very favorable for shopping as thunderstorms begin to move into the area.

Electricity: This morning you may need the heater as the cool air is in place. However look for the temps to rise as the day goes on and the warmest temps will be this evening. Also as the thunderstorms begin to move in expect to possibly see some outages during the stronger storms.

Agriculture: Farmers want to get into the fields this morning and try to get as much done as the moisture will move in later this evening and also the potential for seeing some damaging storms.

Construction:  Outdoor working projects should be good through this morning, however by about 5pm these projects will want to wrap up as tonight´s construction work will be a bit challenging as the storms begin to move into the region.

Outdoor Venues: This morning and early afternoon are going to be ok for such events, however tonight things will want to be moved inside as the weather will rapidly go downhill making for a challenge to hold  any outdoor events outside of the Storm Chasers that will be at work this evening in the region.

Weather Changer for October 12:

Area #1: The showers are slowly making their way onshore and should start increasing in coverage providing some much needed rain to the region.

Area #2: The upper level low is transforming into a surface low and is going to move across the plains this weekend creating a very interesting scenario with the potential of seeing quite a bit of severe weather very possible from tornadoes and hail.

Area #3: The high pressure is moving into the Northeast today and bringing some cold air to the region anticipate seeing multiple frost and freeze warnings for tonight again.

Area #4: This is a feature that I am highlighting for about 2 weeks from now, I have been watching this unfold and I have comfort at this time in saying this could be another big severe weather outbreak it may be even larger than this weekend, the reason I say that is this one is going to wrap more cold air in and also  have more Gulf moisture to work with.