Big Story Weather – October 15, 2012
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from October 12-14: A strong frontal boundary started through the Southern Plains on Friday bringing with it two reported tornadoes in the Northwest part of Texas and also numerous reports of hail from Eastern New Mexico, the panhandle of Oklahoma and portions of Northwest Texas throughout the day. Saturday the storm system moved a tad bit further east bringing with it yet more tornadoes from East Central Texas northward into Missouri and Arkansas. The big news was the major straight line wind damage that occurred throughout the region on this day. Sunday the storm system slowly moved further to the North and east bringing with it yet another day of severe weather with reports of tornadoes in Mississippi and also near the Chicago area. A few wind and hail reports came out of Ohio for the day. A strong area of high pressure was beginning to drop southeast in behind this frontal boundary also bringing better conditions for the short term.
Weather Outlook for October 15: The frontal boundary will move into the East Coast today bringing with it the potential of another day of severe weather especially in the Mid-Atlantic region and also showers to the Northeast. High pressure is riding in from the Plains and will make its way into the Southeast later this afternoon providing for a nicer day to the region. A few lingering showers will be found up in the Pacific Northwest today as well. Below is the weather for a few select cities.
Baltimore MD: (Thunderstorms: 64F) | Gulfport MS: (Partly Cloudy: 75F) | Omaha NE: (Partly Cloudy: 62F) | Denver CO: (Partly Cloudy: 54F) | San Diego CA: (Partly Cloudy: 78F)
International Weather Outlook for October 15: Southeast Asia we see the monsoonal moisture bringing light rain to Southern India. A low pressure and a cold front is bringing clouds and light rain to central China. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Korea and most of Japan for today. A low pressure moving into Europe will bring scattered showers to Spain and France and will also extend westward back into England. An area of high pressure will begin to move into the tip of South America bringing with it nice conditions to the region. High pressure over Eastern Australia will bring a nice day to most of the region. Here is the forecast for a few select cities across the world.
Perth, Australia: (Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds: 78F/54F) | Singapore: (Cloudy: 90/79F) | Manila: (T-storms: 88F/73F) | Hong Kong: (Chance of rain: 84F/75F)
October 15, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:
Atlantic Basin: Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen and move slowly northward. It should become a hurricane later today as it continues tracking towards Bermuda. Winds are around 60kts with a pressure of 988mb.
Eastern Pacific: Hurricane Paul continues to track slowly towards the Baja peninsula with winds around 65kts and a pressure of 988mb. This storm will make its way into the Baja over the next few days.
Gulf of Alaska: A very strong low pressure system is making its way across the Gulf this morning. This needs to be watched as it enters the Pacific Northwest as it will likely become our next weather maker here in the United States by mid-week.
Western Pacific: Typhoon Prapiroon is still moving slowly towards the north as its located to the Southeast of Okinawa Japan right now. Winds are around 85kts with a pressure of 959mb. The storm will continue tracking towards Japan. Tropical Storm Maria is turning just to the east of Prapiroon and will continue to slowly drift towards the Iwo To Island. It will remain weak though as it can´t get fully developed with Prapiroon taking all of its energy. Winds this morning are around 50kts and a pressure of 985mb. Another feature further to the west in the Western Pacific is also being watched for potential development this morning. Pressure was around 1010mb with winds near 15kts.
South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Anais this morning was tracking across the Southern Indian Ocean and making its way for Madagascar bringing very strong winds and high seas along with heavy rainfall. The storm currently has winds near 110kts and a pressure of 941mb.
ENSO Watch: We remain in a neutral phase; however indications are out there such as that Pacific Low that moved on shore and the development of more tropical activity that El-Nino(Weak) could be in place, which will impact our winter weather.
Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 15-19:
Baltimore MD: Today there is a moderate chance of seeing thunderstorms create some impacts through the region with the associated frontal boundary. The 19th also will bring another chance of seeing a slight impact with the next frontal boundary making its way into the region.
Gulfport MS: There will be a few slight impacts this morning as the frontal boundary pushes through the region, the biggest concern is going to be the 18th when the region enters into another frontal boundary and sees a moderate chance of impacts.
Omaha NE: A tranquil start to the week followed by a moderate chance of impacts with the next front on the 17th and also a slight impact on the 18th before the frontal boundary clears the area.
Denver CO: A slight chance of seeing impacts on both the 16th and 17th as the next frontal boundary begins to move into the region.
San Diego CA: A nice week in store with no impacts forecasted for the region.
Climate Watch for October 10-14:
This past week showed signs of more up and downs, as we have been seeing a more active weather pattern with frontal systems moving through the region.
Baltimore MD: Started the 10th above average and then cooled off with temps falling to around 1-6 below average and then a sharper drop to around 10 below average followed by the 14th and a slight warming again as temps rose to about 7 above average.
Gulfport MS: Temps have been fairly consistent with them running about 1-5 above average or 1-5 below average over the past five days.
Omaha NE: The period started with temps running about 3-9 degrees below average followed by a rise of temps to 2-7 degrees above average over the past two days.
Denver CO: The period started with temps running about 5-8 degrees below average and then a brief day of temps above average followed by another shot of cold air that brought temps back to around 11 below average and then the 14th temps slowly started to rebound again.
San Diego CA: Temps started out at average and then dropped to about 2-4 degrees below average and then rose above average by 7 degrees on the 14th.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 15, 2012:
Day 1-3: The low pressure and cold front will make its way through the East Coast today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure is building in over the Plains and will begin to move into the Southeast. Another frontal boundary is beginning to approach the Pacific Northwest. The 2nd day will have the frontal boundary moving into the Northern Plains and also the high pressure moving out to the East Coast. We will also be watching Hurricane Paul as it makes a jog towards the Baja during this time period. Day 3 the frontal boundary will begin to push into the Great Lakes and the associated cold front will make its way into the Gulf Coast bringing with it thunderstorms, some of which maybe severe, along the frontal boundary.
Day 4-7: High pressure will move onshore in the Pacific Northwest and quickly move towards the Rockies as another weaker low pressure begins to move into the region. The low pressure will still be stuck in the Great Lakes bringing another day of showers and storms to the region.
Day 8-12: A series of low pressure systems will just continue to move onshore in the Pacific Northwest and go through the Northern Rockies and then clip their way into the Plains over this time period.
Day 13-15: A potent storm system will be moving in over the Pacific Northwest bringing strong storms to possibly Northern California during this time period. High pressure will dominate the Eastern 2/3 of the country during this time period.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Minneapolis MN
Monday: Partly Cloudy and cool with a high near 62F, look for the winds to be out of the Southwest around 8-13mph and overnight lows to fall around 50F.
Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy and a tad bit warmer wit high temps near 70F, winds will be out of the South around 5-10mph and overnight lows will fall to around 51F.
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms the high temps will be near 60F and then dropping to around 37F overnight with winds strong from the Southwest around 15-20mph.
Thursday: Mostly Cloudy with periods of showers and very cool with high temps near 46F and overnight lows around 36F, winds from the Southeast around 8-13mph.
Friday: Mostly Cloudy and cool with a high near 48F and overnight lows around 38F winds will be from the Southwest around 5-10mph.
Ask The Weatherman for October 15:
Question: What does climate mean?
Answer: It takes a lot to understand the dynamic climate that we have. There are many factors that go into climate such as hemispheric features and also ENSO Cycle, which includes everyone´s favorite El-Nino and La-Nina. The rough definition of climate is the collection of surface observations to include temperature and moisture over a 30-year collection period. Climate is defined as a region’s temps and moisture.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 15:
Wave Energy: The approaching frontal system along the Pacific Northwest will generate some nice wave action into the region making it a great day to generate electricity. Also the frontal boundary pushing off the East Coast will make some larger waves along the Eastern Seaboard.
Solar Energy: The Southwest will see a nice day to produce solar energy and also as high pressure builds into the Southern Plains expect to see nice weather and great solar energy into this region.
Wind Energy: The Northwest winds on the backside of the cold front in the Great Lakes will make this region good for wind energy today.
Hydro-Energy: The cold front pushing through the Ohio River valley and the Northeast will make for some showers and isolated thunderstorms in this region allowing for the rivers to fill up which is good news for the Hydro Energy making process.
October 15 Weather and Your Wallet (Dallas TX):
Dining: A great way to save some money today is pack your lunch and enjoy the park during lunch break as its going to be a very nice day in the region.
Transportation: If you want to save some more money today you can walk to work or even ride a bike.
Shopping: A nice day to get out and do some fall shopping if your needing that rake to clean up the fall leaves or just looking to buy your winter clothes.
Electricity: There should be a small window this afternoon where the Air Conditioners may be needed as we approach a Cooling Degree Day of 4.5 which will happen during the afternoon time frame.
Agriculture: A pleasant day to get out and do some much needed work around the farm or fields. For those looking to save money, today would be a great day to head out to the local farmers market in your region and enjoy some cheaper vegetables and fruits.
Construction: The work on the roads or the cleaning of high-rise buildings should be a nice day for all of these types of jobs and the weather will be just right not to hot and not too cold along with light winds will make it easy to get up and clean those outdoor windows or working on those construction jobs.
Outdoor Venues: The outdoor venue line up for today should be a nice day to plan for something outdoors. Maybe heading to the park with the family pet or even after school taking the kids out and enjoying the afternoon and early evening if you plan on being out later tonight you may need a jacket as temps drop a touch in the later hours of the evening.
Weather Changer for October 15:
Area #1: High pressure moving into the area is going to bring some cooler weather to the region and help provide a nice day for anyone that has to do storm cleanup from this past weekend.
Area #2: The storm system will move through the Mid-Atlantic region and bring the potential of some severe weather to this region today.
Area #3: Another approaching low pressure system will start to bring more showers and stronger winds to the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days.
Area #4: This feature is about 3-4 days away now and as I mentioned before still needs to be watched closely as the potential is there for this to be a another shot of severe weather through this region as the frontal boundary kicks out of the Rockies and slides southeastward and interacts with the Gulf of Mexico.