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October 17, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 17, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 16: The frontal boundary began to move into the Northern Rockies and associated with it we saw multiple strong wind damage reports from Idaho into Western Montana. There was also very strong winds throughout the Northern Plains ahead of the frontal boundary. High pressure was in control of a good portion of the weather yesterday.

Weather Outlook for October 17: High pressure will push off the East Coast today bringing a nice day along the eastern seaboard, while a very potent storm system makes its way into the Plains. Anticipate seeing showers on the northern portion of it and strong to severe thunderstorms along the southern portion of the front. There could be some tornado reports from Arkansas and Western Mississippi this evening associated with a squall line that develops. High pressure is also in control of the weather out West making for a nice day in the region. Below is the weather for a few select cities.

New York NY: (Partly Cloudy: 62F) | Gulfport MS: (Partly Cloudy/Afternoon Thunderstorms: 80F) | St. Louis MO: (Rain Showers: 64F) | Boise ID: (Partly Cloudy: 55F) | Las Vegas NV: (Partly Cloudy: 79F)

International Weather Outlook: Tropical Storm Maria will bring increased winds and seas along with heavier rainfall to Eastern Japan over the next couple of days. A frontal boundary extending over the Eastern Koreas will bring cloudy skies and periods of showers. High pressure over the Tibetan Plateau will bring partly cloudy skies to a good portion of China today. This will also allow for northeasterly winds to flow through India and will shut down the monsoonal rains. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while a low pressure system will be moving into Western Europe and England bringing with it periods of showers and cloudy skies. High pressure will bring nice weather to the Southern tip of South America today. High pressure will also bring a nice day to Australia.

Here is the forecast for a few select international cities.

Hong Kong: Partly Cloudy with a high near 24C.

Beijing China: Partly Cloudy and cool with a high near 15C.

New Delhi India: Partly Cloudy and warm with a high near 26C.

Perth Australia: Partly Cloudy with a high near 15C.

October 17, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: Hurricane Rafael continues to turn east of Bermuda this morning with winds near 75kts and a pressure of 969mb. Rafael will continue to move northeast and weaken over the next couple of days. Another area of low pressure is beginning to take shape in the Central Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Winds with this feature are about 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Storm Paul is moving slowly away from the Baja and back into the Pacific, however with the colder waters Paul should continue to weaken as winds are now around 45kts with a pressure of 990mb.

Gulf of Alaska: Another area of low pressure is moving into the Southern portion of the Gulf of Alaska today bringing with it very strong winds, large seas and showers.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Maria is located to the Southeast of Japan bringing with it high seas, strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo over the next couple of days. Winds are around 55kts with a pressure of 982mb. Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues its voyage of the Western Pacific with a slow drift to the northeast. Winds with the storm are around 45kts with a pressure of 989mb. Another area of low pressure is located in the Western Pacific to the Southeast of Guam. This area has a pressure of 1010mb and winds near 15kts. Slow development of this feature is possible.

South Indian Ocean: Tropical Storm Anais continues tracking towards the Southwest near Madagascar. It will continue to weaken as it encounters colder waters. The current pressure of the storm is near 989mb with winds around 45kts.

ENSO Watch: (Neutral Phase) There are more indications in the Pacific of the potential increase into an El-Nino phase as areas of low pressure are moving in further south towards California over the next week or so.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 17-21:

New York NY: Look for a quiet first two days and then a frontal boundary will begin to approach the area by the 19th bringing with it a chance of showers which could have a slight impact over the 19th and 20th.

Gulfport MS: The frontal boundary will be moving through the region tonight and through the overnight bringing with it a moderate chance of seeing impacts from strong winds and also heavy rain and possibly isolated tornadoes, by the 18th the region will go back under high pressure.

St. Louis MO: The frontal boundary moving through the area over the next couple of days will provide some rainfall and also have slight impacts on the region. Once the front pushes out of the area look for partly cloudy skies and no impacts.

Boise ID: This week high pressure will bring a break and help the area enjoy an impact free week.

Las Vegas NV: High pressure should keep this region impact free for the next few days.

Climate Watch for October 12-16:

New York NY: The period started with temps about 8-10 degrees below average followed by a warm up with temps returning to about 6-12 degrees above average and then on the 16th temps returned to about 4 degrees below average.

Gulfport MS: Temps have remained about 1-5 degrees above average for the majority of the time however the 16th temps fell to about 3 degrees below average.

St. Louis MO: Temps started out about 4 degrees below average and then warmed to about 2-14 degrees above average for the remainder of the time period.

Boise ID: Temps have been warm through the entire period running about 2-10 degrees above average through the period.

Las Vegas NV: Temps started the period running about 7-14 degrees below average, however they have been warming to around 1-6 degrees above average for the past few days now.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Oct 17, 2012:

Day 1-3: High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will make for a nice day in that region, while another potent low pressure system begins to move into the Plains. The associated cold front will bring the chance of seeing severe weather in the south this afternoon and overnight. The 3rd day will have another low entering the Pacific Northwest and rapidly moving into the Plains during this time period.

Day 4-7: High pressure will be back in control for the Eastern US, while another area of low pressure will begin to move onshore over the Northwest Pacific. Day 7 we will see a frontal boundary extending across Oregon and Washington while the low pressure center drifts southward towards California and also a weak frontal boundary will be in place over the Mid-west and High pressure will be in control of the East Coast.

Day 8-12: High pressure will be moving through the Great Lakes region, while another low pressure system will be moving onshore through the Pacific Northwest and the potential of seeing a tropical system beginning to develop south of Florida.

Day 13-15: There will be High pressure building in over the Northern Plains, along with a frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes into the Gulf Coast region and another frontal boundary moving into the Pacific Northwest and possibly a tropical feature located around Cuba. By day 15 we should be looking at a strong high pressure system moving into the plains along with a frontal boundary extending down the East Coast and possibly a Tropical system landing into Florida.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Tokyo Japan (All temps in Celsius):

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms and very windy. High temps will be near 19C and overnight lows will fall to around 15C. Winds will be from the Northeast around 27-32mph with gusts near 45mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy in the morning with a high temp near 17C. Winds will be from the Northwest around 12-17mph and overnight lows will fall to around 13C.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high near 17C and overnight lows around 12C. Winds will be from the Northwest at 5-10mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer with high temps near 20C. Winds will be light and variable shifting to the Southwest overnight as temps drop to around 16C.

Monday: Mostly cloudy and breezy again as high temps rise to near 22C. Winds will be from the Southwest around 22-27mph with gusts near 40mph. Overnight lows will fall to around 18C.

Ask The Weatherman for October 17:

Question: What is a warm front?

Answer: Looking at a surface map you will see the red line that attaches from the low pressure and usually extends eastward from the low pressure center. This red line divides the colder air mass to the north and the warmer air mass to the south. The north side of this front is typically where you will find showery activity and sometimes an isolated thunderstorm. However, on the back side of this front you will find warm and very unstable air which supports thunderstorm development. It is very common to see the temps rise about 8-12 degrees behind the warm front as the warmer air moves into the region.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 17:

Wave Energy: The Pacific Northwest will start to see the next area of low pressure bringing its winds and seas over to the region, while Southern California will be dealing with the remnants from Paul.

Solar Energy: The Southwest will have a nice dry day and also plenty of sunshine which will provide for solar energy. The Mid-Atlantic is seeing the high pressure move to the east. It will again be a nice place for solar energy today and also up in the Northeast.

Wind Energy: The Central and Northern Plains again today will be dealing with strong northwesterly winds which will be a good source for wind energy. However, there may be periods that the mills have to be shut down due to the winds being a tad bit too strong.

Hydro-Energy: The frontal boundary that is going to be moving through the Southern Plains and then into the Tennessee and Mississippi River Valley will make both of these rivers an excellent place to gain rainfall that can be used as it flows through the rivers in support of hydro-energy.

October 17 Weather and Your Wallet (San Diego CA):

Dining: Today is going to be a great day in the region to take the lunch outdoors and enjoy the sunshine and nice temps. Save some money and bring your lunch from home.

Transportation: Should be a good day outside of your normal rush hours. Save some money and walk or bike to work.

Shopping: A nice day to head out to the malls and get some fall shopping done. The outdoor malls and sales will also be a hit today with such a nice day in store.

Electricity: A great morning to have the windows open and save on energy, however this afternoon between 2-6pm you might need to run the air conditioner for a little while as we are going to be seeing a 9.5CDD day in the region.

Agriculture: Should be a nice day to get that yard work, gardening work or farm work done.

Construction: A favorable day to work on the streets and buildings as the winds will be light and there will be plenty of fair weather to enjoy.

Outdoor Venues: Today will be a perfect day for heading to the beach, going for a walk, or even taking the kids to the San Diego Zoo.

Weather Changer for October 17:

Area #1: The high pressure is moving out over the eastern seaboard. However, it will impact the region one more day with partly cloudy skies and overnight lows that could drop to the freezing point in the higher elevations along the Appalachians.

Area #2: The much anticipated frontal boundary is going to make its way into this region tonight and early tomorrow. Right now severe weather is looking more favorable for this region with wind damage, large hail and even a few tornadoes all likely to occur in this area.

Area #3: This will be the second piece of energy coming out of the Pacific. Due to the cooler temps this region may be dealing with some heavier rainfall totals and a very cool day in store.

Area #4: Tropical Storm Paul continues to deliver high seas to the region and stronger winds towards the Baja.