Big Story Weather – October 18, 2012
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from October 17: The front worked its way south overnight through Tennessee, Arkansas and mostly Mississippi, leaving a few tornadoes in its wake. There were reports of a lot of damage and also some injuries due to the tornadoes that went through Northern Mississippi. The north side of this front also brought with it a surprise as some places in the Dakota’s recorded wind gusts near 70-75mph. There was also plenty of straight line wind damage that extended from Missouri into Arkansas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Weather Outlook for October 18: A strong low pressure center will make its way to the Great Lakes and the associated frontal boundary will extend southward into the Florida Panhandle. Anticipate seeing more strong to severe storms over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast today as this front moves that way. The winds and rain on the back side of the front will continue today as well. Many wind advisories are in place for the Northern Plains. Winds are expected to be around 45-60 mph. High pressure will dominate the weather over the West today and later this evening look for the possibility of showers to start moving into the Pacific Northwest. Below is the weather for a few select cities.
Baltimore MD: (Mostly Cloudy with Thunderstorms: 70F) | Houston TX: (Partly Cloudy: 82F) | Sioux Falls SD: (Rain Showers: 44F) | Denver: (Partly Cloudy: 65F) | Portland OR: (Partly Cloudy/Evening Showers: 74F)
International Weather Outlook for October 18: Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues to move east of mainland Japan and will bring showers and strong winds to the area today. High pressure over Eastern China will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea’s and Eastern China. High pressure over Western Europe will bring partly cloudy skies to places like Brussels. Low pressure moving over England will bring extensive cloud cover to England and also parts of Western Europe. A frontal boundary extending northward towards Southern Australia will bring with it some showers this afternoon from Perth eastward to possibly Melbourne. Here is the forecast for a few select international cities.
Hong Kong: Partly Cloudy with a high near 25C.
Ho Chi Minh Vietnam: Partly Cloudy and warm with a high near 31C.
Tokyo Japan: Mostly Cloudy with showers and a high near 17C.
Sydney Australia: Partly Cloudy with a high near 22C.
October 18, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:
Atlantic Basin: Post-Storm Rafael continues to move northeast away from land and is on its final warning as it transitions into a non-tropical storm this morning with winds near 65kts and a pressure of 972mb. Rafael will continue to move northeast and weaken over the next couple of days.
Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression Paul is moving slowly away from the Baja and back into the Pacific. However, with the colder waters, Paul should continue to weaken as winds are now around 30kts with a pressure of 1003mb.
Gulf of Alaska: There is a low moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and another low pressure system that is beginning to make its way towards the Pacific Northwest which will become the next weather maker for the United States over the next couple of days.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Maria is located to the East of Japan bringing with it high seas, strong winds and heavy rain to the Tokyo region over the next couple of days. Winds are around 40kts with a pressure of 993mb. Tropical Storm Prapiroon continues its voyage through the Western Pacific with a slow drift to the northeast. Winds with the storm are around 60kts with a pressure of 978mb.
South Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression Anais continues tracking towards the Southwest near Madagascar it will continue to weaken as it encounters colder waters. Current pressure is near 1000mb with winds around 30kts.
ENSO Watch: (Neutral Phase) We remain in the neutral phase but indications are still plentiful for this to become a weak El-Nino this fall.
Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 18-22:
Baltimore MD: Today there is a moderate chance of some severe storms moving through the area that will lead to impacts. Tomorrow there will remain a slight chance of impacts and then clearing out for the weekend.
Houston TX: A very nice week in store as high pressure moves into the region. Expect to see no major impacts from the weather over the next five days.
Sioux Falls SD: As the strong low pressure system continues to get stronger over the Great Lakes it will provide return moisture on the backside for the next couple of days which will be over top of Sioux Falls region providing the area with some slight impacts.
Denver CO: This week high pressure will bring a fairly nice weather pattern with little in the way of impacts.
Portland OR: This week multiple fronts will move through the region keeping it cloudy and also wet. This will allow for some traffic and other troubles, so we are giving the region a slight chance of impacts over the next five days.
Climate Watch for October 13-17:
Baltimore MD: Started the period out about 10 degrees below average followed by a nice warming period with temps running about 4-7 degrees above average and then on the 16th temps fell to around 4 below average and returned to near normal by the 17th.
Houston TX: The majority of the period has been running about 1-7 degrees above average with the exception being on the 16th temps were about 3 degrees below average.
Sioux Falls SD: Temps have been running about 3-14 degrees above average all of the past five days as the font began to approach the area things are changing now in the region to colder.
Denver CO: The period started about 11 degrees below average followed by a warming period with temps running about 2-13 above average and then on the 17th the region fell to around 8 degrees below average.
Portland OR: Temps have been near normal the entire period with them coming in just above or just below the average.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 18, 2012:
Day 1-3: The frontal boundary moving through the East today will bring the chance of seeing some thunderstorms that will be strong to sever and also some moderate rains farther north. High pressure will be in control of the weather out west and in the Rockies, while another system begins to approach the Pacific Northwest.
Day 4-7: High pressure will be back in control for the Eastern US, while another area of low pressure will begin to make a path for the Northwest. The storm system will move onshore over Southern Oregon and will bring with it some rain to Northern California along with the Pacific Northwest and even some significant mountain snows could be possible. High pressure moves into the Great Lakes as this area of low pressure slides into the Northern Plains by day 7.
Day 8-12: High pressure will still hold strong along the Eastern Seaboard. A low pressure system will be forced up into Canada. However, it will bring showers and the cold side snows to the Western Dakotas during days 9-10. Day 11 we will see yet another strong storm system move towards the Pacific Northwest. There will be a Low pressure center developing in Texas and also a frontal boundary draping across the Mid—west with showers and storms. High pressure will be in control of the East Coast and we could have ourselves a tropical taking shape southeast of Florida.
Day 13-15: There will be a frontal boundary moving through the Plains bringing with it strong winds and the potential to see heavy rains and snows across the Dakotas. High pressure will be building in behind this front bringing in the cold air fast which may allow for more people to get snow as its going to get colder faster behind this system. A tropical feature may be present southwest of Cuba during this time period as well.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Sioux City IA:
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with showers and windy. Winds will be from the Northwest at 25-30mph and higher gusts near 50mph are possible. High temps will be around 46F and overnight lows will fall to around 39F.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with strong northwest winds around 20-25mph with gusts near 40mph. High temps will be around 52F and overnight lows will be falling to around 34F.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and warm as high temps move towards 69F and overnight lows fall only to around 40F. Winds will be from the Southeast around 5-10mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer as high temps reach around 74F along with overnight lows falling to the mid 40’s. Winds will be out of the South around 5-10mph.
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies and a tad cooler as high temps reach to around 65F with overnight lows falling to around 40F. Winds will be from the Northeast at 10-15mph.
Ask The Weatherman for October 18:
Question: What do the pressure lines on the weather map mean?
Answer: Excellent question! The best way to answer this is think of them as roads. In the weather world we call them isobars (lines of equal wind pressure). What happens is the air follows these isobars around in a clockwise fashion for high pressure and counter-clockwise for low pressure. So as we watch the isobars we can tell the wind direction. Also. the closer you put the isobar lines together means the stronger the winds are. So by looking at the isobar we can now determine the wind speed along with wind direction.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 18:
Wave Energy: Another area of low pressure is beginning to move into the Pacific Northwest. This will again provide a great source for wind energy. A second area is taking shape over the Northern Gulf as this frontal boundary enters into the Gulf and will create more seas for today.
Solar Energy: The Southwest will have a nice dry day and also plenty of sunshine making it a good spot for solar energy. Another good spot will be the Southern Plains near an area of high pressure that is building in.
Wind Energy: The Central and Northern Plains will be dealing with strong northwesterly winds which will be a good source for wind energy, however, there may be periods that the mills have to be shut down due to the winds being a tad bit too strong.
Hydro-Energy: The frontal boundary that moved through Mississippi overnight has provided the region with a larger amount of rainfall which will help get extra water into the Mississippi River.
October 18 Weather and Your Wallet (Bismarck ND):
Dining: Today would be an excellent day to eat indoors because of the rain and cool temps. With high temps only in the lower 40’s, it just doesn’t sound like an outside eating kind of day.
Transportation: Take it easy today if you are driving as the rain will make things hard this morning. With the strong Northwest winds around 30mph with higher gusts, anticipate a slow move to traffic especially high profile vehicles.
Shopping: This morning the cold and rain makes it a good day to hit the indoor malls. This afternoon expect more of the same. Just an indoor shopping kind of day.
Electricity: The forecast is for 28.5HDD degrees which is quite a bit. The majority of it looks to be needed this evening and early into the next morning as temps fall into the lower 30’s.
Agriculture: Today is a day to get some of that indoor barn and farm work done. Try to keep the animals in the barn if possible or find them a warmer shelter to seek as today will be cold on them as well.
Construction: The rain showers along with the strong winds will make today a challenge to get outdoor construction work done. However, if you are working on the inside of a house, today is your kind of day.
Outdoor Venues: Today is a day to do some re-planning for anything outdoor as the rain and very cold temps will make it uncomfortable.
Weather Changer for October 18:
Area #:1 The strong low pressure center over the Great Lakes will continue to be a hazard on the lakes and also create the potential of seeing heavy rains in the region.
Area #2: The cold front that is associated with the low pressure will bring in the chance of seeing strong to severe storms near the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas today which could be a huge impact to operations.
Area #3: The strong winds on the backside of the low will be blowing through the Dakota’s as winds could reach as high as 55-65mph today for some locations. This will cause loose objects to blow around and also unstable trees to possibly fall over.
Area #4: The next frontal boundary that is getting ready to push on shore over the Pacific Northwest will start to bring showers to the region this evening and overnight.