Big Story Weather
October 19, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 19, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 18: The frontal boundary shifted east and brought strong storms to the Mid-Atlantic region with multiple large hail and damaging wind reports. Behind it we saw cooler air push in and places in the Southern Plains woke up to temps in the 40´s and upper 30´s. The Pacific Northwest saw yet another front push on shore yesterday. High pressure continued to influence the weather over the Colorado Rockies.

Weather Outlook for October 19: Low pressure has pushed into the Great Lakes. A warm front is moving into the Northeast today and will bring showers to that region. A cold front will push further along the East Coast bringing the possibility of scattered storms to places along the coast in the Mid-Atlantic Region. A few sea-breeze thunderstorms will be possible in Florida. High pressure will build into the Southern Plains and impact the region with partly cloudy skies which will move into the Gulf Coast region also today. High pressure over the Rockies will bring nice weather to the Southwest. A low pressure system is moving into the Northern Rockies from the Pacific Northwest and is leaving extensive cloud cover and showers in that region. Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Boston MA: (Mostly Cloudy with Thunderstorms: 60F) | Memphis TN: (Partly Cloudy: 62F) | Fargo ND: (Mostly Cloudy: 45F) | Billings: (Partly Cloudy: 70F) | San Diego CA: (Sunny: 74F)

International Weather Outlook for October 19:
High pressure begins to build into Eastern China and will bring partly cloudy skies to the Korea´s and also Japan. The monsoonal rains will be weak, however some rain will fall in the region. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to Eastern Europe, while another low pressure system is approaching England which will bring showers to the region and also extensive cloud cover to Western Europe. The tip of South America will see mostly cloudy skies as an area of low pressure starts to approach the area from the west. A weak area of low pressure is beginning to impact Eastern Australia, while Western Australia begins to see high pressure move into the region.

Here is the forecast for a few select international cities for Saturday Oct 20.

New Delhi India: Partly Cloudy with a few showers and a high near 29C.

Seoul South Korea: Partly Cloudy and colder with a high near 16C.

Bangkok Thailand: Partly Cloudy and warm with a high near 31C.

Perth Australia: Partly Cloudy with a high near 23C.

October 19, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: One area of convection in the South Central Atlantic needs to be watched over the next few days for possible development.

Eastern Pacific: No storms in the region today.

Gulf of Alaska: Another area of low pressure is beginning to approach from the Southwest which will start to bring increased seas and winds to the region. This feature will move into the Pacific Northwest in about 3-4 days

Central Pacific: There is a wide area of convection located to the southwest of Hawaii this morning which is being monitored for future development. As of this morning the area had winds around 25kts and a pressure of 1009mb.

Western Pacific: There are no areas of concern in this region today.

South Indian Ocean: A wave is beginning to develop just south of India and right now it has winds around 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb. This feature has the potential to gain strength over the next couple of days.

ENSO Watch: (Neutral Phase) This morning everything is holding strong to remain in the Neutral phase, however there is still a chance to see El-Nino conditions to form and they will probably be weak.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 19-23:

Boston MA: A warm front moving through the area will bring with it a chance of showers today and tomorrow which will lead to some slight impacts. The 21st-23rd will find the area under nice weather conditions and no impacts.

Memphis TN: High pressure will impact the weather in this region leaving it dry and impact free for the next five days.

Fargo ND: The remaining wrap-around moisture will impact the region today with slight impacts. Tomorrow a lighter drizzle will bring a slight impact to the region. After that the pattern shifts into high pressure for the next couple of days followed by a slight impact again on the 23rd.

Billings MT: The region will enjoy high pressure for about two more days leaving it impact free, however by the 21st a frontal boundary will move into the region bringing with it slight impacts to the region from the light rain and possibly higher level light snow.

San Diego CA: The week should see temps return to around normal or slightly above and also no major impacts forecasted for the week.

Climate Watch for October 14-18:

Boston MA: The period started out warm with temps running about 2-8 degrees above average and then on the 18th temps fell back to or just slightly below average about 1 degree.

Memphis TN: Temps have been running about 1-7 degrees above average until the 18th when temps fell by 2 degrees below average.

Fargo ND: Temps started slightly below average by 1 degree and then started to warm around 4-17 degrees above  average and then on the 18th temps again fell back to around 5 degrees below average.

Billings MT: Temps started out about 12 degrees above average and then slowly fell to around 6-7 degrees above average and further fell around the 17th to temps running about 2-5 degrees below average.

San Diego CA: Temps stared out about 7-11 degrees above average and then on the 17th a really warm pattern set in as temps rose to an outstanding 19 degrees above average which is huge for this region. The 18th found temps back to around normal.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 19, 2012:

Day 1-3: The frontal boundary will continue to move into the Northeast bringing showers to the region. A nice cold Canadian High pressure center will move into the Southern Plains today. Also look for another frontal boundary to move into the Northern Rockies along with nice conditions in the Southwest. The day 3 change has another low pressure center moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Day 4-7: High pressure will settle in over the East Coast, while another frontal boundary will set up in the Southern Plains along with the frontal boundary extended across the West Coast. Day 6 will have the high pressure still sitting over the East Coast, while the low pressure will ride up the Eastern Rockies bringing showers into the Plains region. Day 6 we could be looking at a strong low pressure center in the Northern Plains and also another system moving into the Pacific Northwest and a tropical feature possibly taking shape to the southeast of Florida near the Windward Islands. Day 7 we will see the frontal system push up into Canada, however some wrap around moisture will be present over the Dakotas and that could fall in the form of light snow or rain. High pressure will setup near the coast of California and also our tropical feature will still be to the southeast of Florida.

Day 8-12: Another frontal boundary is set to transit through the Northern Plains bringing with it periods of showers and possible high elevation snow showers. A low pressure system will be moving back onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Along with that we will see high pressure still ridging over the East Coast. The tropical feature will still remain southeast of Florida and is not expected to move much as the strong ridge over the Eastern US will keep this blocked and stationary. Day 10 we will see an area of low pressure developing in the Southwest and slowly move eastward. Also an area of high pressure will impact the West Coast and East coast. The tropical feature shifts westward over Cuba during this time period.

Day 13-15: This period will start with a strong frontal boundary moving through the Midwest and back into the Southern Plains. Severe weather may occur with this feature due to the strong high pressure that is going to build in behind it. Also along the northern end of this system we could see snow build over the Northern Plains. Our tropical feature will be southwest of Cuba as it continues to move slowly. During the end of this period we could be looking at a large severe weather outbreak along with a possible tropical landfall.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Aberdeen SD:

Friday: Mostly Cloudy with periods of morning showers, high temps will be around 50F, winds from the Northwest at 8-13mph and an overnight low around 35F.

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy and a tad bit warmer with a high near 61F, winds will be from the Southeast around 8-13mph and overnight lows will fall to around 43F.

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy and mild with a high near 60F winds from the Northeast at 5-10mph and overnight lows around 45F.

Monday: Mostly Cloudy with Rain showers and a high near 57F, winds will be from the Northeast at 7-12mph and overnight lows will fall to around 42F.

Tuesday: Mostly Cloudy with morning showers and a high near 56F, winds will be from the Northeast at 7-12mph and overnight lows will be around 40F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 19:

Question: What is the difference between a Typhoon and Hurricane?

Answer: A great question indeed. The simple answer to this is there is only one difference and that is the location of the storms. Hurricanes form in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and also the Atlantic Ocean. Typhoons form in the Western Pacific Ocean. Other than that, both storms have the same wind strength requirements and both spin counterclockwise just like a low pressure system.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 19:

Wave Energy: The low pressure just moved onshore in the Northwest Pacific. However, the wave out of the Northwest should till make for great wave energy today. The storm system moving out over the Atlantic is going to make some nice wave energy in that region.

Solar Energy: The southwest by far will be the best location for solar energy. In the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast an area of high pressure will move in today making for some great conditions for solar energy.

Wind Energy: The Northern Plains from the Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota will again be on the side of strong Northwesterly winds and also now that area will begin to shift into the Great Lakes region today.

Hydro-Energy: The frontal boundary has and will continue to bring rainfall to the Ohio and Northeast region. This will allow rivers such as the Ohio and rivers in the Northeast to obtain some great moisture which could be used through the hydro-energy system.

October 18 Weather and Your Wallet (Austin TX):

Dining: A nice day is in store. Head out to the park with your lunch from home or to an outdoor dining venue to enjoy the wonderful weather.

Transportation: A great day to get out and ride a bike if possible or even walk to the office if you can. Public transportation is another cheap option for today.

Shopping: Today will make for a nice day to go and start looking at that fall apparel that has arrived in the malls.

Electricity: A good day although there may be a small window after lunch that may need some air conditioning just to keep the room at that magical comfort level. We are forecasting about 2.5 CDD´s.

Agriculture: A good day for the farmers to get out and do some yard work like cleaning the leaves up or cutting the grass.

Construction: A nice day will lead to a great time for construction projects to get done.

Outdoor Venues: Should be a nice day to enjoy the outdoors. Head out for a walk, go fishing, or even catch an outdoor concert or show. Just grab the light jacket for this evening as temps will get a tad cooler.

Weather Changer for October 19:

Area #1: Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will bring showers and stronger winds to the region.

Area #2: The cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic region will bring some thunderstorms to the warm side of the front and also up in the Northeast look for showers as temps slowly warm as the front moves towards that direction.

Area #3: A strong high pressure area is beginning to move into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region which is bringing colder air to the region along with partly cloudy skies and mild afternoon temps.

Area #4: Another low pressure system is beginning to move into the Northern Rockies this feature will bring some more rain into the region along with warmer temps and stronger southwesterly winds.