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October 26, 2012

Big Story Weather – October 26, 2012

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 25: Strong winds and snow made their way through the Great Lakes region yesterday with reports of wind damage coming in from WI and parts of MI. There was also a large area of frost and freeze advisories and warnings for the Southern Plains as our cold air mass settled into the region overnight dropping temps down into the lower 30´s for many regions. A large area of fog set up along the Gulf Coast do to the colder land and warmer waters mixing together. Hurricane Sandy also started to create a large impact along the east coast of Florida as it is beginning to move northward out of the Bahamas and into the Gulf Stream where it will gain some strength.

Weather Outlook for October 26: High pressure has now moved off the East Coast and into the Greenland area. This is an important feature for the upcoming storm and its placement around Greenland. Secondly, the frontal boundary is now moving into the Ohio River Valley and extending southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the second feature that we are watching. Lastly is Hurricane Sandy which is now moving just off the east coast of Florida. These three features are going to interact along the East Coast setting the stage for one of the largest storms in this region since the 1991 “Perfect Storm”. High pressure over the Northern Plains is bringing some very cold air down from Canada into the Plains. The West Coast is also enjoying high pressure today. Below is the weather for a few select cities.

Baltimore MD: (Cloudy:  66F) | Atlanta GA: (Partly Cloudy: 75F) | Fargo ND: (Partly Cloudy: 36F) | Spokane WA: (Mostly Cloudy light Rain: 39F) | Phoenix AZ: (Partly Cloudy: 79F)

International Weather Outlook for October 26: High pressure over Japan will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. A frontal boundary will be approaching the Korea´s bringing with it increased clouds and cooler conditions. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be found in India along the monsoonal trough again today. A weak area of low pressure will move through the Middle East bringing with it the potential of seeing mostly cloudy skies. Low pressure moving though Norway will bring showers and colder conditions to the region. The showers will also extend southward into Eastern Europe. A stronger area of low pressure will move on shore over Spain bringing showers to the region and Western Europe. High pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to England. A frontal boundary will extend into the Southern tip of South American and bring increased cloudiness to the region. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions to Australia while a few clouds will be found in the Northern Territories. Here is the forecast for a few select international cities for Thursday October 25 Evening.

Hong Kong China: Partly Cloudy with a few thunderstorms and a low near 24C.

Ho Chi Minh Vietnam: Partly Cloudy with a few thunderstorms and a low near 22C.

Bangkok Thailand: Partly Cloudy with a few areas of thunderstorms and a low near 25C.

Sydney Australia: Partly Cloudy with a low near 13C.

October 26, 2012 Storm Tracker Update:

Atlantic Basin: Hurricane Sandy continues moving east of Florida on a northward track. It will stay off shore, however, it will start to re-curve towards the northwest and possibly make landfall between the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast early next week. This morning winds are around 75kts and pressure is near 968mb.

Eastern Pacific: Nothing in the region today.

Gulf of Alaska: The low is now moving through the Eastern Gulf of Alaska and should start making its way into the Pacific Northwest early next week.

Central Pacific: No areas of concern in this region today.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Son-Tinh continues to move west of the Philippines and towards the coast of Vietnam with winds around 55kts and a pressure of 982mb. This storm will probably make landfall this weekend along the Vietnam coast.

South Indian Ocean: One area of interest is located in the Southern Indian Ocean and this feature is moving towards Madagascar with winds this morning around 15kts and a pressure of 1010mb. Some strengthening of this system is possible over the next few days.

ENSO Watch (Neutral Phase): This morning everything is holding strong to remain in the Neutral phase, however, there is still a chance to see El-Nino conditions to form and they will probably be weak.

Five Day Storm Index Outlook for October 26-30:

Baltimore MD: Look for stronger winds today and also some light drizzle or showers which will bring the area into a slight impact today. Look for the winds to start increasing tomorrow which will keep the area in a slight impact mode as Hurricane Sandy gets closer. On the 28th-30th expect to see conditions get worse with heavy rains, storm surge, strong winds and isolated tornadoes, and even higher elevation snows which brings this area under the moderate impacts for the 28th going into Strong Impacts for the 29th and 30th.

Atlanta GA: High pressure will begin to move into this region leaving it quiet and with no impacts forecasted.

Fargo ND: A cold area of high pressure is moving into the area and will leave this region impact free over the next five days.

Spokane WA: The arrival of two more fronts over the next five days is going to bring light rain and higher elevation snows to this region leaving it in a slight impact for the next five days.

Phoenix AZ: A very nice week in store cooler temps and dry will leave this area impact free.

Climate Watch for October 21-25:

Baltimore MD: Temps started the period off about 1-6 degrees above average and then warmed greatly to around 11-17 degrees above average before falling back to around 3 degrees above average.

Atlanta GA: Temps ranged between 5-10 degrees above average the entire period.

Fargo ND: Temps started about 4 degrees above average but fell on the 22nd to around 1 below average and then warmed again to around 4 above average before falling the remainder of the period to around 4-10 below average.

Spokane WA: Temps were running about 6-9 degrees below average over the past five days.

Phoenix AZ: Temps started about 1-4 degrees above average before falling to around 1-2 below average for the remainder of the period.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for Oct 26, 2012:

Day 1-3: High pressure over the Northern Plains will bring nice weather to the region. A frontal boundary will begin moving towards the Northeast along with Hurricane Sandy moving up into the Georgia and Northern Florida region today bringing plenty of wind and rain. The West for the most part will enjoy a nice day. Day 2 we will see Sandy move up into the Carolinas bringing plenty of wind and rain and storm surge to the region. High pressure will be holding strong over the Central US and another frontal boundary will begin to enter the West Coast. Day 3 will have Hurricane Sandy interacting with the frontal boundary along the Delaware, Maryland and Virginia border bringing very rough seas, strong winds approaching hurricane force. Expect a lot of rain and possibly further west snow in the higher elevations. The first frontal boundary will push into the Plains while a second frontal boundary will be entering the Pacific Northwest.

Day 4-7: The frontal boundary and Sandy will be together near the New Jersey and New York border slowly moving on shore. Expect to see very high rainfall rates, storm surge that may breach into the larger cities such as New York, along with winds that will be stronger than 70mph with higher gusts and higher elevation snows out in the Western part of the state. Sandy should push onshore during this time with a sea Level pressure approaching 936mb.

Day 8-12: The remains of Sandy will push northeast and be nearing Canada. At the same time high pressure will begin building into the region along with another frontal boundary approaching the West Coast. Day 10 we will see high pressure along the East Coast, a developing low over the Gulf of Mexico, and also a frontal boundary extending into the Northern Plains along with another system moving on shore over the Pacific Northwest.

Day 13-15: A strong area of low pressure will begin moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. A weak clipper system will be moving through the Northern Plains and Gulf moisture will begin returning to the Gulf Coast. Day 14-15 we will see a frontal system moving up the Eastern Seaboard and another Gulf system developing bringing very heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast region.

Today's Spotlight Forecast is for Waco Texas:

Friday: Partly Cloudy and cool with a high temp near 60F. Winds will be from the North around 8-13mph and overnight lows will fall to around 38F.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy and cool again as high temps rise to near 60F. Winds will be from the Northeast around 5-10mph and low temps will be near 39F.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy and warmer has high temps rise to near 63F. Winds will be from the Northeast around 5-10mph and overnight lows will fall to around 40F.

Monday: Partly Cloudy and warming up as high temps will rise to around 66F. Winds will be from the Southeast at 7-12mph and overnight lows around 45F.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy and mild as high temps rise to around 71F. Winds will shift to the Southwest around 5-10mph and overnight lows will only fall to around 51F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 26:

Question: What does an the term "air mass" mean?

Answer: Air mass can best be defined as a large area of flat and uniform terrain, meaning that places like Canada and also the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean are source regions for air masses. There are all types of air masses from Continental Arctic (CA), Marine time Polar (MP), Marine time Tropical (MT), Continental Polar (CP), and Continental Tropical (CT). The first letter of each stands for the amount of moisture that the air mass has with it. The Continental ones are dry because they form over land. While the Marine time ones are moist because they form over water. The second letter is (A/P/T) which tells you the temps. Arctic is Frigid air, Polar is cold air. and Tropical is warm air. When you mix them together that is how we get our air masses.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 26:

Wave Energy: The Eastern Seaboard is going to be a great place to make wave energy over the next few days as Hurricane Sandy starts moving up the region. However, the best waves will be a few days in front of the storm because as the storm gets near the waves will be too big.

Solar Energy: The Southwest again will lead the way with great solar energy along with the Northern Plains as high pressure moves into the region. Along the Gulf Cost it should be a fairly good solar day. Up in the Northeast they will have one more solar making day before the clouds start to arrive.

Wind Energy: The Southeast coast of Georgia and South Carolina will see some good winds today, around 25-30mph, which will make for some great wind energy. In the Great Lakes region behind the cold front expect to see about 20-25mph of wind energy.

Hydro-Energy: The arrival of the front into the Ohio River Valley will bring some rain to the region and help in the production of Hydro-Energy through this region.

October 26 Weather and Your Wallet (New York City NY):

Dining: A cloudy day but no rain expected. This will make it ok to enjoy some time outside this afternoon. This evening you will want the jacket as temps fall into the 50´s.

Transportation: Today will be an excellent day to save money by biking or walking to work as the weather will be excellent for that.

Shopping: The weather is cooperating enough today so go check out those outdoor sidewalk sales.

Electricity: Cloudy skies and cooler temps will mean that this evening and into early tomorrow morning you will need the heater possibly for a 4.0HDD period right before sunrise most likely.

Agriculture: A nice to day to get outside and get any farm or yard work that needs to be done.

Construction: A great day to get construction work done on the roads and also any high rise washings that need to be done.

Outdoor Venues: Cloudy conditions will make it hard to enjoy outdoor venues, However, the temps will be favorable during the afternoon and if you´re heading out during the evening you will want a jacket.

Weather Changer for October 26:

Area #1: The low pressure system moving through Canada will bring rain showers to the region and behind it some colder snows.

Area #2: Hurricane Sandy is headed up the Eastern Seaboard. Expect to see very rough seas, winds in excess of 75mph, high storm surge and even flooding rains in the Southeast starting today and then making its way up towards the Northeast.

Area #3: The frontal boundary moving through the Ohio River Valley and also along the Northern Gulf Coast region will bring widely scattered showers to the area.

Area #4: A very strong cold dome of high pressure is on its way down towards the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast region. This will bring some of the coldest air of the season to the region with temps falling into the 20´s and 30´s for many places.

Area #5: The potential arrival of another Pacific storm system will make for a wet and dreary weekend along the Pacific Northwest for places like Seattle and Portland.