Big Story Weather – August 12, 2013
Daily weather forecast and wrap-up provided by redOrbit meteorologist Joshua Kelly.
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from August 9-11: The heat continued over the Southwest and it was a fairly active severe weather weekend. On Friday, 1.75 inch hail was reported in Oklahoma and 70-75mph wind gusts were recorded in Florida, South Dakota and Oklahoma. On Saturday, 2.0 inch hail was reported in South Dakota and wind gusts around 60-65mph were found in North Dakota and also Colorado. On Sunday one tornado was reported in South Dakota, while the largest hail occurred in South Dakota at around 2.0 inches. The strongest wind gusts occurred in Nebraska at around 70-75mph.
Big Story Weather Discussion for August 12:
Surface Map: Low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. The warm front will extend across Southeast Canada and into portions of the Northeast US. The cold front will extend from the Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. There will be showers and thunderstorms along this front. The Southwest monsoon will be in place over Arizona with a few afternoon thunderstorms as well. Strong onshore flow over the Gulf Coast will bring afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure over the West will keep most of the region dry and mild.
Severe Weather: There will be three areas of concern today. The first will be over portions of the Southwest associated with the monsoonal rains. This region should mostly see heavy rainfall. The second will be along the Gulf Coast. This area will mostly see heavy rainfall along with strong winds. The last area will be over the Plains. This area will see heavy rainfall along with large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado and a high chance for flooding will also be possible in this region.
Tropical Weather: No areas of concern this morning. We will be watching an area north of South America that may possibly develop later in the week and start pushing northward.
Select City Forecast:
Baltimore MD: Partly cloudy and mild with high temps around 75F and lows near 63F.
Memphis TN: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 81F and lows near 65F. Total rainfall around 0.50 inches.
Omaha NE: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 77F and lows near 64F. Total rainfall around 0.45 inches.
Denver CO: Partly cloudy with a high near 81 and lows around 62F.
Portland OR: Partly cloudy and warm with a high near 89F and lows around 54F.
August 12, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Multiple tropical waves moving across the Eastern Pacific will need to be watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving into Alaska will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Atlantic Ocean: Low pressure over Northern South America needs to be watched for possible tropical development later this week. Low pressure moving over Iceland will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. Another tropical wave moving off of Africa will need to be watched for possible tropical development.
Western Pacific: Typhoon Utor has winds around 85kts and pressure around 959mb. This storm continues to bring deadly conditions to the Manila region and Cebu region. The storm is bringing very strong winds, storm surge and flooding rains to the area. Low pressure moving into Northeast Russia will bring showers to the region. A tropical wave moving south of Guam will need to be watched for possible tropical development.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon will be active again today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region from India to Singapore.
Southern Hemisphere: One tropical wave to the southwest of Indonesia will need to be watched for possible tropical development. Multiple other low pressures moving through the basin will bring showers and thunderstorms along with snow showers to Central and Southern South America. The next low will be moving south of Africa bringing very strong winds to the region. A third low pressure will be moving over Southern Australia bringing showers to New Zealand and a few showers to Sydney.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for August 12-16:
Baltimore MD: The region will start impact free. A frontal boundary moving through on Aug 14-15 will bring slight to moderate impacts associated with thunderstorms.
Memphis TN: The next five days the region will have slight to moderate impacts associated with afternoon thunderstorms.
Omaha NE: There will be slight to moderate impacts today associated with thunderstorms. There will also be another chance for slight to moderate impacts on Aug 16.
Denver CO: The region will start impact free followed by two days of strong storms on Aug 15-16 which will bring slight to moderate impacts to the region.
Portland OR: The next five days will be impact free for the region.
Climate Watch for August 7-11:
Baltimore MD: The region started with temps around 1-5 degrees below normal then seen a brief warm up as temps rose to around 4 degrees above before finishing the period with temps around 1-2 degrees below normal.
Memphis TN: The period started with temps around 1-3 degrees above normal and then the period finished with temps around 1-2 degrees below normal.
Omaha NE: The majority of the period temps were running around 1-6 degrees below normal and the last day of the period temps rose to around 3 degrees above normal.
Denver CO: The past five days the region has seen temps around 1-16 degrees below normal.
Portland OR: The period started with temps around 1-5 degrees above normal and then finished with temps around 3-7 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for August 12, 2013:
Day 1-3: A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible from New York to Boston. Return flow over the Gulf Coast will bring afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the region. A cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms. The Northern Plains will see showers and thunderstorms. The Southwest monsoon will bring showers and thunderstorms to Arizona, while the majority of the West will be dry and mild with a few places being above normal for temps. Day two the cold front will extend through the Northeast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. This will extend all the way down the East Coast. The stationary boundary will set up over the Gulf Coast. This will be the focus for more heavy rainfall in the region. High pressure will slide in over the Great Lakes bringing cooler weather to the region. A stalled boundary over the Central Plains will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. The period will end with the frontal boundary extending form the Carolinas back into Eastern Texas. This will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. A tropical feature will emerge just to the southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. High pressure will be over the Ohio River Valley bringing nice weather to the region. The majority of the West will be dry and mild during this time.
Day 4-7: The period will begin with dry weather extending from New York back into the Central Plains and westward to the West Coast. A frontal boundary will extend from the Carolinas to the Gulf Coast and will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. The tropical feature will be pushing closer to the Gulf of Mexico. The focus of attention will shift to the Southeast US back into the Gulf Coast as showers and thunderstorms along the boundary will be in the region. There will also be an increase in tropical moisture as the tropical feature pushes into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Day six the tropical feature will be just to the south of New Orleans bringing very heavy rainfall to the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. The period will finish with the tropical feature making landfall over the Northern Gulf Coast anywhere from the MS Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle.
Day 8-12: The period will start with the tropical moisture over the Southeast, while a strong cold front moves through the Northern Plains bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. The West will remain dry. Day ten the entire East Coast back into the Gulf Coast will have enhanced moisture over the region, while the majority of the West will be dry. Day eleven will have plenty of moisture from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic, while another strong storm system pushes into Idaho bringing showers to the region. The period will finish with multiple areas of rainfall across the United States.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with moisture over the East Coast extending back into the Gulf Coast. Another frontal system will push into the Northern Plains bringing more rainfall to the region. The majority of the West will be dry. The period will finish with a strong low pressure moving across portions of Alaska bringing heavy rainfall to the region and another storm system will be moving across the East Coast.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for New York NY:
Monday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 80F. Winds from the southwest 5-10mph as overnight lows fall to around 72F. Total rainfall will be around 0.15 inches.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 77F. Winds from the southwest 9-14mph as overnight lows fall to around 60F. Total rainfall will be around 0.40 inches.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with high temps around 77F. Winds from the northwest 9-14mph as overnight lows fall to around 58F.
Thursday: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 75F. Winds will be light and variable, with low temps around 59F.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a high near 77F. Winds from the southwest 5-10mph as overnight lows fall to around 62F.
Ask The Weatherman for August 12, 2013:
Question: What is return flow?
Answer: Sometimes you may be listening to the weather report and the weather person uses the term “return flow.” So what does that mean? Return flow is when, in the Northern Hemisphere, the southerly winds start to push warm moist air northward from the tropics. This type of weather is associated with warm and muggy conditions and can be found along the Gulf Coast almost all year. Also ahead of cold fronts you will find this type of air.
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Green Energy Weather Report for August 12, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be slight to moderate amounts of energy along the Northeast. The Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast will see slight amounts of energy. The Northern Gulf Coast will have slight to moderate amounts of energy. The Southwest and the Northwest will both see moderate amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: There will be fair amounts of solar energy over the Mid-Atlantic and also along the Gulf Coast before the afternoon thunderstorms move in. There will also be moderate amounts over a good portion of the Plains ahead of the thunderstorms. The best amounts of energy will be over the majority of the West Coast.
Wind Energy: The strongest wind energy will be found on the eastward side of the lakes and also over portions of the Northern Rockies.
Hydro-Energy: There will be slight amounts of energy over the Northeast and the Northern Gulf Coast. There will be moderate to extreme amounts of energy over the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. The Northern Plains and the western Great Lakes will see slight to moderate amounts of energy.
August 12 Weather and Your Wallet (New Orleans LA):
Return flow will setup over the region bringing another afternoon of thunderstorms to the region.
Dining: There will be a small window around lunch time if you want to enjoy lunch at the park.
Transportation: There will be some delays on the major roadways this afternoon and also at the airport as the heavier showers move through the region.
Shopping: If you have plans to head out to the malls today, make sure to take an umbrella with you.
Electricity: There will be a moderate demand for cooling today as high temps rise to around 91F. The total forecasted CDD’s for today is around 19.
Yard Work: This morning and early afternoon, in between the heat and the thunderstorms, there may be a small window of time to cut the grass if you need to.
Construction: There will be some delays later on this afternoon as the thunderstorms begin to push into the region.
Outdoor Venues: There will be some impacts to outdoor events due to the thunderstorms moving through the region today.