Big Story Weather – August 16, 2013
Daily weather forecast and wrap-up provided by redOrbit meteorologist Joshua Kelly.
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from August 15: Severe weather and flooding were the big stories of the day. No tornadoes were reported but there were hail reports around 2.0 inches in New Mexico and wind gusts around 60-70mph created damage paths in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
Big Story Weather Discussion for August 16:
Surface Map: High pressure over Southeast Canada will bring favorable weather to a good portion of the Northeast, however a few showers will be possible around the Cape Cod area. A stationary boundary just over the Northern Gulf will be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms today. A storm system moving through the Central Plains will also be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. A few afternoon thunderstorms will be possible over Arizona and New Mexico. High pressure will keep the Rockies and the West Coast dry.
Severe Weather: There will be three areas of concern today. The first is over the Southwest from Arizona to New Mexico. This area will see heavy rain along with large hail. The second location over the Central Plains and will be the focus of heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail. The third will be along the Gulf Coast where the region will see heavy rainfall along with some damaging winds.
Tropical Weather: Invest 92L begins to slowly push over the Gulf of Mexico today. Winds are around 25kts with pressure near 1010mb. This storm is going to push into the Central Gulf and possibly have implications along the entire Gulf Coast from heavy rainfall to strong winds and storm surge near its center. There will also be higher tides along the Northern Gulf Coast as the southeast winds will start to push the water onshore in many locations. Tropical Storm Erin continues to turn over the open Atlantic with winds around 35kts and pressure of 1007mb. This storm will gain some strength over the weekend before hitting shear and weakening early next week.
Select City Forecast:
Boston MA: Mostly cloudy with showers. High temps will be around 65F and lows near 60F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Mobile AL: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps near 90F and lows around 77F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Sioux Falls SD: Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms. High temps around 75F and lows near 54F. Total rainfall around 0.15 inches.
Billings MT: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 84F and lows around 68F.
San Diego CA: Partly cloudy skies today with a high near 80F and lows around 64F.
August 16, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Two tropical waves located to the south-southwest of Hawaii are being watched for possible tropical development. A wave pushing away from Mexico is being watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving through Alaska will bring showers to the region. Low pressure moving through Central Canada will bring showers to the region. Low pressure over the Central Plains will bring another day of severe weather.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Erin continues to push across the open Atlantic with winds around 35kts and pressure around 1007mb. Invest 92L is still being watched for possible tropical development with winds around 25kts and pressure of 1010mb. This storm will move into the Gulf of Mexico today and will have a chance to gain strength along with bringing heavy rainfall to a large portion of the Gulf Coast. Two other strong waves are currently over Africa but will need to be watched once they push into the Atlantic early next week. Low pressure moving towards Western Europe will bring a few showers to the Scandinavia region.
Western Pacific: Multiple tropical waves exist in the basin. The remains of Utor are pushing through China. A new wave to the northeast of Taiwan is being watched for possible tropical development along with a wave towards the southeast of Japan. Low pressure moving over Northeast Russia will bring showers to the region.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoonal will be active over portions of the western section of India and Sri Lanka. Another stronger wave is pushing westward towards Eastern Africa.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple low pressure systems moving through the basin today with impacts being felt over Southern Chile and Argentina with rain and snow showers. Another low pressure system is impacting South Africa with showers and breezy conditions. A third low pressure area is hitting Southern Australia with strong winds and rainfall. A fourth low pressure system is moving through New Zealand with showers.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for August 16-20:
Boston MA: There will be slight impacts over the next couple of days associated with rain showers. On August 19 a cold front will move through bringing slight to moderate impacts with thunderstorms.
Mobile AL: The region will have moderate impacts over the next five days with the chance of seeing moderate to extreme impacts on Aug 18-19 as a tropical feature moves closer allowing for heavy rainfall and possible strong winds.
Sioux Falls SD: The area will have slight to moderate impacts today and then again on August 20 associated with thunderstorms moving through the region.
Billings MT: There will be slight to moderate impacts towards the end of the period.
San Diego CA: The region will be impact free over the next five days.
Climate Watch for August 11-15:
Boston MA: The region started the period with temps around 1-4 degrees above normal and then finished the period with temps around 2-7 degrees below average.
Mobile AL: The past five days temps have been around 1-6 degrees below normal.
Sioux Falls SD: The past five days temps have been around 4-16 degrees below normal.
Billings MT: The period started with temps around 1-3 degrees above normal followed by a brief fall to around 1-3 degrees below normal and then finished the period around 3-5 degrees above normal.
San Diego CA: The past five days the area has seen temps around 3-4 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for August 16, 2013:
Day 1-3: A few showers over Cape Cod, otherwise the rest of the Northeast and Eastern Great Lakes will enjoy high pressure. Moderate amounts of rainfall will be possible from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast as the tropical moisture starts to increase over the area. Thunderstorms will develop over the Central and Southern Plains today with some severe weather expected. High pressure over the Rockies will keep the region dry along with the West Coast. Day two high pressure will keep the Northeast dry, however tropical moisture will be on the surge from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic with many places along the Gulf Coast seeing over two inches of rainfall. The Plains, the Rockies and the West Coast will be dry. The period will finish with a tropical feature pushing on shore over the Northern Gulf Coast bringing more heavy rainfall along with flooding concerns. The West will be dry from the coast to the Plains.
Day 4-7: The period will begin with heavy rainfall from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast with multiple inches of rainfall possible over this region. The west from the coast to the Plains will be dry again. Day five the heavy rainfall will continue from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast. The period will end with a strong storm system moving through the Northern Plains bringing showers and strong thunderstorms.
Day 8-12: The period will begin with showers extending from the Plains to the Northeast. A second area will be from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast. The potential for heavy rainfall will exist for this region. The West will remain dry. Day ten a strong storm system will extend from Southeast Canada all the way to the Gulf Coast. Expect to see heavy rainfall along this front. Tropical moisture will be pushing through Florida. The period will end with a frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast and Southeast providing more rainfall to the region. A storm system will be moving into the Northern Plains bringing heavy rainfall to the region. A new low pressure area will be heading towards the Pacific Northwest.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast providing heavy rainfall to the region. A storm system moving through the Plains will bring another day of strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall. The middle of the period will have low pressure moving through the Great Lakes along with a frontal boundary to the Gulf Coast. Rain and thunderstorms will be found along this boundary. The period will end with a wet pattern in place from Michigan to the Gulf Coast.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Gulfport MS:
Friday: Partly cloudy with a few afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 90F. Winds from the southeast 7-12mph as overnight lows fall to near 76F. Total rainfall around 0.05 inches.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and breezy with periods of heavy rainfall. High temps around 88F. Winds from the southeast 10-15G25mph. Low temps near 76F. Total rainfall will be around 0.75 inches.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and breezy with periods of heavy rainfall. High temps around 86F. Winds from the southwest 10-15G25mph. Low temps near 77F. Total rainfall around 0.50 inches.
Monday: Partly cloudy with periods of heavy rainfall. High temps around 82F. Winds from the northeast 9-14mph as overnight lows fall to around 76F. Total rainfall near 0.50 inches.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. High temps around 88F. Winds from the southeast 5-10mph as overnight lows fall to near 76F. Total rainfall around 0.20 inches.
Ask The Weatherman for August 16, 2013:
Question: Why is the northeast side of a tropical system the worst area to be in?
Answer: When we talk about tropical, we always refer to the right side at landfall. The reason is that the winds are from a direction that will always blow water on shore in the form of storm surge. Along with that there is strong turning in that portion which leads to higher tornado potential.
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Green Energy Weather Report for August 16, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be slight to moderate amounts of energy along the Northeast. Decreasing to slight along the Mid-Atlantic and then back to the moderate levels for the Southeast. The Northern Gulf of Mexico will see moderate to extreme. The Southwest will have moderate amounts of energy along with the Northwest.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy from the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Southeast. There will also be ample amounts over the Northern Plains along with the Rockies and the West Coast. There will be lower amounts of energy over the Gulf Coast and the Southwest.
Wind Energy: The strongest wind energy will be over the Eastern Great Lakes behind the high pressure center, also over the southwest in between the frontal boundary and also the surge of monsoonal moisture.
Hydro-Energy: There will small amounts of energy near the Cape Cod region. There will also be small amounts over portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. There will be moderate amounts from the Southern to Central Plains along the frontal boundary. There will also be slight amounts of energy over the Southwest.
August 16 Weather and Your Wallet (Fargo ND):
High pressure over the area will bring a nice, cool day to the region.
Dining: Today will be a great day to enjoy lunch at the park. This evening you may want a jacket.
Transportation: There will be no weather-related delays on the roads or by air.
Shopping: Today will be a nice day to get out and enjoy some fall shopping.
Electricity: There will be a small demand for cooling today between 3-6pm this afternoon. The rest of the day will be fairly cool – opening the windows will save money today.
Yard Work: Today will be a nice day to get out and start preparing the yard for fall and winter.
Construction: There will be no weather delays to impact the region or the outdoor projects.
Outdoor Venues: A nice day to take the dog for a walk at the park or head to the beach and enjoy a nice cool day along the water front.