Big Story Weather – August 19, 2013
Daily weather forecast and wrap-up provided by redOrbit meteorologist Joshua Kelly.
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from August 16-18: Rainfall was the big story over the weekend with the tropical moisture surging northward along the Gulf Coast. Places from Gulfport MS to the Panhandle of Florida northward into Central Georgia saw rainfall rates from 3 inches to near 8 inches which lead to massive flooding. Severe weather for Friday was found over Eastern Oregon with hail around 1.5 inches and wind gusts near 60-65mph for both Oregon and Texas. Saturday the severe weather occurred over Kansas and Georgia with hail sizes around 1.0 inches along with wind gusts near 60-65mph for Arizona, Georgia and Florida. Sunday the severe weather consisted of one landspout/tornado over California along with hail around 1.75 inches in Colorado and wind gusts of 60-65mph over Florida.
Big Story Weather Discussion for August 19:
Surface Map: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will bring another cool and dry day to the region. This will extend into the Northeast as well. A low pressure area over the Dakotas will bring thunderstorms and showers to the region. This will extend into the Western Lakes as well. The cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Central and portions of the Southern Plains. Return flow will be in place along the Gulf Coast which will create afternoon thunderstorms. Low pressure near Arizona will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will keep the West dry and warm and also at a high risk for fires.
Severe Weather: There will be three focus points today. The first over the Southwest will provide heavy rainfall along with strong winds. The second area over the Gulf Coast will provide heavy rainfall along with strong winds. The third place will be from the Central Plains into the Northern Plains and east over the Western Lakes. The regions will see heavy rainfall along with large hail and damaging winds.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Depression Erin continues to fight to the end with winds around 30kts and pressure around 1009mb. The storm will drift slowly west-southwest and dissipate over the next couple of days. A new wave has emerged off the coast of Africa with winds around 20kts and pressure near 1007mb. This feature will gain strength and continue a westward track over the next 24 hours.
Select City Forecast:
New York NY: The region will see partly cloudy skies and cool weather with a high near 68F and lows around 60F.
Memphis TN: Partly cloudy skies with a high near 83F and lows around 66F.
Fargo ND: Partly cloudy skies with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 75F and lows near 54F. Total rainfall around 0.15 inches.
Denver CO: Partly cloudy with a few afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 82F and lows near 62F. Total rainfall around 0.15 inches.
Los Angeles CA: The area will see partly cloudy skies with a high near 84F and lows around 70F.
August 19, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: In the Central Pacific we are watching multiple areas. The first is Hurricane Pewa which is headed towards Wake Island with winds around 65kts and pressure of 1000mb. The second is Tropical Storm Unala which is southwest of Hawaii with winds around 35kts and pressure of 1008mb. The third is to the southeast of Hawaii – it’s currently an invest with winds around 25kts and pressure of 1010mb. A wave has pushed off the coast of Mexico with winds around 20kts and pressure of 1010mb. This area will have to be watched for next potential tropical development as it continues westward. Low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska will bring showers to the region.
Atlantic Ocean: The remains of a tropical wave are pushing up the Southeast Coast today bringing another day of potentially heavy rainfall. Low pressure moving through the Northern Plains will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region. Tropical Depression Erin continues tracking slowly westward with winds around 30kts and pressure of 1009mb. A new wave has pushed off the coast of Africa with winds around 20kts and pressure of 1007mb. This wave will have to be watched for tropical development. Another strong wave is about to push off the coast of Africa as well. Low pressure moving towards Iceland will bring showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Trami continues to track between Taiwan and Okinawa with winds around 50kts and pressure near 985mb. This storm will gain some strength as it slowly moves westward towards China. Another tropical wave with winds around 25kts and pressure of 999mb is being watched for potential tropical development as well. Low pressure moving over Northern Japan will bring a few showers to the area. Southern Kagoshima Japan is also going to see impacts today due to the volcanic ash that is in the region. Some of this is still suspended in the atmosphere as well.
Indian Ocean: The Southwest monsoonal rains will be strong again from India to Sri Lanka.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving across the basin with impacts being felt over Southern Argentina and Chile with showers and snow showers. The second impacted area will be South Africa were strong winds will be in place. The third impacts will be felt over Southwest Australia with a few showers over the region. We are also looking for another cold front to bring showers to Sydney.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for August 19-23:
New York NY: There will be no impacts until August 22 when the region will see a few showers and thunderstorms move through the region bringing a slight to moderate impact.
Memphis TN: The area will be impact free today. Slight to moderate impacts for the remainder of the period with afternoon thunderstorms.
Fargo ND: There will be slight impacts today associated with showers and thunderstorms and then again on August 23 as another frontal boundary moves in bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Denver CO: The area will have slight impacts today with thunderstorms and then again on August 22-23 as another round of thunderstorms moves through the region.
Los Angeles CA: The area will be impact free over the next five days.
Climate Watch for August 14-18:
New York NY: The past five days the area has seen temps around 3-10 degrees below normal.
Memphis TN: The past five days have been cool with temps around 8-12 degrees below normal.
Fargo ND: The period started with temps around 1-4 degrees below normal and then finished the period with temps around 1-5 degrees above normal.
Denver CO: The period started with temps around 1-3 degrees below normal followed by a warming with temps around 5-11 degrees above normal.
Los Angeles CA: The past five days the area has seen temps around 2-4 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for August 19, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic will keep the region dry. This will extend into the Northeast where temps will be cool as well. A frontal boundary extending from the Plains to the western lakes will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. Return flow will bring afternoon thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the Rockies will keep the region dry along with the West. Increased fire threats will be possible over the region as it’s very dry. The Southwest will see a few showers and thunderstorms associated with the monsoonal trough. Day two showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast. Another pocket of showers and thunderstorms will be over the Great Lakes. A third area will be over the Southwest. The period will end with showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Plains and the Great Lakes.
Day 4-7: The period will start with showers and thunderstorms extending from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast and a second area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains. Day six high pressure will be over the Great Lakes and the Northeast, while return flow will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast. A frontal boundary will be moving through the Northern Plains bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. The period will end with a frontal boundary extending from the Mid-Atlantic back into the Gulf Coast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. A tropical wave will begin to push into the Baja increasing rainfall over most of the Southwest. Another frontal boundary will be moving through the Northern Plains.
Day 8-12: The period will start with high pressure over the Northeast, showers and thunderstorms from the Plains into the Western Lakes along a frontal boundary, more showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to the Southeast. A strong storm system will begin to push into Alaska with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Day ten showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Northeast all the way into the Gulf Coast. Another storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Northern Plains, while tropical moisture will be on the increase over the Southwest. A tropical wave will be approaching Cuba and a very strong low pressure will bring gale force winds and heavy rainfall to Alaska.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with another push of tropical moisture from Florida into the Mid-Atlantic, while another low moves through the Great Lakes bringing more showers to the region. The cold front will push into the Northwest bringing showers to Seattle and Portland. The period will finish with multiple lows moving across the Northern United States.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Seattle WA:
Monday: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 81F. Winds from the northeast 2-7mph and overnight lows around 50F.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a high near 77F. Winds from the northeast 5-10mph and overnight lows around 50F.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 82F. Winds from the northeast 5-10mph and overnight lows around 50F.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with a high near 87F. Winds from the south 2-7mph and overnight lows around 56F.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a high near 79F. Winds will be light and variable. Overnight lows will fall to near 50F.
Ask The Weatherman for August 19, 2013:
Question: What is the definition of upslope precipitation?
Answer: This is when precipitation starts to move from lower elevations to higher elevations. Sometimes this is referred to as orographic precipitation. This is very common near mountains and another spot is from the Gulf of Mexico into Western Texas where elevations rise rapidly away from the Gulf.
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Green Energy Weather Report for August 19, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be light amounts of wind energy from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. The Southeast and Northern Gulf Coast will have light to moderate amounts of energy. The Southwest and Northwest will both see moderate amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy over the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic and back into the Eastern Lakes. There will also be ample amounts of solar energy along the Gulf Coast before the afternoon thunderstorms. The Rockies and the West will both see plenty of solar energy as well.
Wind Energy: The best places for wind energy today will be over the Northern Rockies of Montana and also behind the low over the Southeast.
Hydro-Energy: There will be moderate amounts of energy over the Southeast, becoming light over the Gulf Coast. The Plains will see light to moderate amounts of energy. The Southwest will have light amounts of energy during the afternoon.
August 19 Weather and Your Wallet (Biloxi MS):
Return flow around the Sub-tropical high will bring afternoon thunderstorms to the region.
Dining: Lunch at the beach should be nice, however this evening there will be thunderstorms.
Transportation: There will be some minor flooding on the roadways this afternoon in heavier thunderstorms.
Shopping: If you plan on shopping this afternoon after work you will need an umbrella.
Electricity: Today will be rather warm with a forecast of 19CDD’s for the area.
Yard Work: There will be periods of time this morning and evening that will be good for getting out and doing the yard work.
Construction: There will be some impacts later this afternoon as the thunderstorms move into the region.
Outdoor Venues: This evening there will be thunderstorms in the region that will have impacts on any outdoor plans.