Big Story Weather – September 12, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 11:
The heat continued over the Plains and into the Mid-Atlantic yesterday with high temps in the 90-100F range. Severe weather included one tornado in Northern Minnesota and 1.75in hail in Illinois. The strongest winds occurred in Upstate New York with gusts around 60-70mph.
Big Story Weather Discussion for September 12:
Surface Map: Low pressure moving through Southeast Canada will bring a cold front over the Northeast triggering showers and thunderstorms for the area. High pressure building in over the Plains and Western Lakes will bring with it cool weather overnight. Low pressure over the Southwest will bring showers and heavy rainfall to the region again today. An upper level ridge will bring partly cloudy skies to the Gulf Coast. The West Coast will remain dry and warm.
Severe Weather: There will be a pocket of severe weather over portions of the Southeast which should be limited to moderate rainfall and strong winds. There will also be severe weather possible along the frontal boundary over the Lakes and Plains. These areas should see heavy rainfall, strong winds, possibly large hail, and one or two tornadoes. The third area is over the Southwest again today and will bring heavy rainfall.
Winter Weather: High pressure over the Northern Plains will bring another Frost/Freeze to portions of Northern Minnesota overnight.
Flooding: There will be a high chance for flooding over the Southwest today as monsoonal rains unleash on the area with heavy rainfall. There will also be a pocket of flooding over portions of Maine near the low pressure center later in the day.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Depression Gabrielle has winds near 30kts and pressure of 1009mb. The storm will begin to regain some strength as it moves northward over the next 24 hours. Hurricane Humberto is showing signs of some strengthening as it continues to turn over the Atlantic with winds around 75kts and pressure near 982mb. This image shows some of the features associated with Humberto along with an in-depth analysis of Humberto from NASA. There is also an invest moving across the Yucatan Peninsula today that will push into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and needs to be watched for tropical development over the next 24 hours.
Select City Forecast:
Boston MA: Mostly cloudy with periods of heavy rainfall. High temps around 82F and lows near 62F. Total rainfall near 1.15 inches.
Memphis TN: Partly cloudy and warm with a high near 85F and lows near 70F.
Kansas City MO: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High temps near 90F and low s near 70F. Total rainfall will be near 0.45 inches.
Denver CO: Partly cloudy with a high near 85F and lows near 64F.
Portland OR: Partly cloudy and warm with a high near 89F and lows near 55F.
September 12, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: A tropical wave off the coast of Mexico is being watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska will bring showers to the region along with gusty winds.
Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Humberto has winds near 75kts and pressure of 982mb and continues to track northward. It is expected to then make a slight jog to the west again. Some strengthening is still possible with this storm. Tropical Depression Gabrielle has been downgraded, however the forecast is for some re-intensification which would bring it back up to tropical storm strength. A third area pushing off the coast of Africa is being watched for possible tropical development as well. The area near the Southwest Gulf of Mexico will need to be watched this weekend for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving over Southeast Canada will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. Low pressure moving near Iceland will bring showers and gusty winds to the area. A low pressure area moving through Northern Europe will bring a few showers to Western Russia.
Western Pacific: Low pressure moving over the Kuril Islands will bring showers and strong winds to the island chain. The region is also watching two stronger waves for possible tropical development. Both waves are to the southeast of Iwo Jima and Northwest of Guam at this time.
Indian Ocean: The Southwest monsoon will bring another moderate rainfall event over portions of Sri-Lanka and India.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin with impacts being felt over Southern Argentina and Chile with rain and snow showers. A second frontal boundary moving to the south of Southern Africa is bringing strong winds to Africa. A third frontal boundary moving into Southeast Australia will bring showers and some thunderstorms to the region.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for September 12-16:
Boston MA: There will be moderate impacts over the next couple of days associated with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Another round on the 15th will bring more moderate impacts to the region.
Memphis TN: The region will see moderate impacts on the 13-14th and again on the 16th as two separate cold fronts move through bringing thunderstorms to the region.
Kansas City MO: The region will see moderate impacts over the next couple of days, followed by another chance of thunderstorms and moderate impacts on the 16th.
Denver CO: The period will begin impact free. A cold front moving through towards the end of the period will bring showers and thunderstorms along with moderate impacts to the region.
Portland OR: The next five days will be impact free across the region.
Climate Watch for September 7-11:
Boston MA: The period started with temps around 3-6 degrees above normal then briefly cooled to around 4 degrees below normal before rapidly warming for the remainder of the period to temps around 23 degrees above normal.
Memphis TN: The past five days temps have been around 6-10 degrees above normal for the region.
Kansas City MO: The past five days temps have been around 14-18 degrees above normal for the area.
Denver CO: The period started with temps around 4-13 degrees above normal and then finished the period around 9-10 degrees below normal.
Portland OR: The past five days temps have been around 3-18 degrees above normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 12, 2013:
Day 1-3: Low pressure moving over Southeast Canada will bring heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms to the Northeast and the eastern Great Lakes extending into the Mid-Atlantic region. An upper level ridge over the Southeast will keep the region fairly dry and this will extend back into the Gulf Coast. A cold front will push across the Lakes and into the Plains and will be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build in over the Northern Plains bringing another shot of colder air to the region with the chance for a frost and freeze over Northern Minnesota. High pressure will keep most of the West dry and warm, while the southwest monsoon will bring heavier rainfall to the Southwest. Day two the stationary boundary will be along the Gulf Coast and a tropical feature will be moving over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will build in over the Plains and Great Lakes. A few showers will still be over the Southwest and Rockies. The period will end with a tropical feature moving towards Mexico and Southern Texas.
Day 4-7: The period will start with high pressure over the Great Lakes bringing nice fall-like weather to the Plains, the Great Lakes and extending into the Northeast. The tropical will move closer to making landfall in Northern Mexico. Moisture will surge into Southern and Eastern Texas. A low pressure area will develop over the Colorado Rockies and bring showers to the region. A new frontal boundary will bring showers to the Pacific Northwest. Day six the tropical will move onshore over Mexico and bring heavy rainfall and stronger winds to Southern Texas as well. High pressure will still dominate the weather over the Great Lakes and the Northeast. A storm system will begin to enter the Plains bringing rainfall and thunderstorms to the region. The period will end with the high pressure area pushing of the East Coast. The frontal boundary moving over the Plains and Western Lakes will pick up the tropical moisture making for heavy rainfall for Eastern Texas and portions of the Northern Gulf Coast. A very powerful storm system will be heading into Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest with very strong winds and moderate rainfall.
Day 8-12: The period will start with high pressure just off the Northeast Coast, while a tropical feature will be pushing into Bermuda. The strong low pressure will be moving over the Great Lakes bringing heavy rainfall to the region. Tropical moisture will resurge over Eastern Texas and the Northern Gulf Coast. The strong storm system will push a warm front over the Pacific Northwest. Day ten a storm system will be over the Northeast, high pressure will be over the Plains, and a broad area of low pressure will bring moderate rainfall along the Gulf Coast. The period will end with high pressure over the Eastern US, another strong frontal boundary moving into the Northern Plains, and a tropical feature moving through the Central Gulf of Mexico slowly to the north.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with high pressure over the Eastern US, a tropical feature moving towards the Northern Gulf Coast, a strong storm system moving through the Plains, and another frontal boundary hitting the Pacific Northwest. The period will end with a possible tropical making landfall along the Northern Gulf and also another tropical moving in towards the Southeast US.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Sioux Falls SD:
Thursday: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 77F. Winds from the northeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 48F.
Friday: Partly cloudy with a high near 78F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 50F.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 64F. Winds from the northeast 5-10mph. Overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall around 0.75 inches.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 72F. Winds from the northeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 48F.
Monday: Partly cloudy and warmer with a high near 74F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 54F.
Ask The Weatherman for September 12, 2013:
Question: What is wind shear?
Answer: Wind shear is defined as the rapid change in wind direction/speed in a very short distance, no matter if its vertically or horizontally. This can provide for very dangerous conditions for airplanes.
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Green Energy Weather Report for September 12, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be extreme amounts of energy along the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic regions becoming lighter over the Southeast and also the Northern Gulf. The Southwest and Northwest will both have moderate amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy over most of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast along with the Plains and a good portion of the Rockies. There will also be ample amounts of energy over the majority of the West.
Wind Energy: The best places for wind energy today will be over the Eastern Great Lakes and again over the Northern Rockies behind the frontal boundary.
Hydro-Energy: There will be ample amounts of moisture over the Northeast and the Eastern Great Lakes. There should also be ample amounts of moisture from the Northern Plains to the Southwest.
September 12 Weather and Your Wallet (New York NY):
A cold front moving into the region will bring periods of very heavy rainfall and some flash flooding could be possible over the Metro area.
Dining: Today would be an excellent day to enjoy lunch indoors with all the heavy rains.
Transportation: There will be moderate delays at the major airports. Also look for slow commutes on the roadways today.
Shopping: Today would be a good day to take a rain check on shopping or make sure to take the umbrella.
Electricity: There will be a small need for cooling this afternoon at around 5 CDD’s.
Yard Work: Today will not be a good day for any yard work our outdoor work.
Construction: Today will be a good day for those indoor projects.
Outdoor Venues: Not a good day for any outdoor activities.