Big Story Weather – September 13, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 12:
The heat continued from Ohio to the Upper Mississippi River Valley and southward into the Southern Plains. Severe weather was quite active yesterday. The biggest story and the most dangerous story is the flooding that is taking place in Colorado. What is happening here is that we have warm moist air moving in from the Southwest US converging with cooler air from the high pressure to the north and both air masses are moving from the east right up the side of the Rockies. This has led to upward vertical motion and very strong topographical enhanced moisture over the region. Some places in the Aurora CO and Boulder CO areas have seen near 1 foot of rainfall already with more expected, This is leading to massive flooding with the potential of dams breaking – a very serious situation in the region. Severe weather also hit the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic with multiple reports of wind gusts of up to 60-70mph along with 1 inch hail over New Hampshire, Arkansas and Ohio.
Big Story Weather Discussion for September 13:
Surface Map: High pressure near the Great Lakes will bring nice weather to the region. Another day of heavy rainfall will be possible in Colorado. Low pressure over the Southwest will make for another heavy rainfall day as multiple flood watches and warnings are already in place. The Gulf Coast and the West Coast will both enjoy partly cloudy skies.
Severe Weather: There will be isolated pockets of severe weather over the Southeast. This region will see more heavy rainfall. The second area of severe weather will be over the Southwest. This region will mostly see heavy rainfall along with some damaging winds.
Winter Weather: High pressure moving through the Great Lakes will bring an increased chance for frost and freeze conditions from Northern Minnesota to near Detroit this evening.
Flooding: The Southwest will be the focus of more severe flooding. This includes the Denver Metro area along with most of New Mexico and parts of Arizona. There will also be another focus area from Idaho to Nevada where flash flooding will be likely.
Tropical Weather: Hurricane Humberto continues to turn over the Eastern Atlantic with winds around 65kts and pressure near 984mb. The storm is forecasted to move northward and continue to slowly weaken. Tropical Depression Gabrielle continues moving northward towards the marine time region of Canada with winds around 30kts and pressure near 1007mb. The storm will also continue to weaken. Tropical Depression 10 has developed over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico with winds around 30kts and pressure of 1007mb. This storm will develop into a tropical storm prior to making landfall over Northeast Mexico and Southern Texas.
Select City Forecast:
Baltimore MD: Partly cloudy with a high near 80F and lows near 64F.
Mobile AL: Partly cloudy and hot with a high near 92F and lows near 73F.
Fargo ND: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. High temps around 80F and lows near 54F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Billings MT: Partly cloudy and warm with a high near 90F and lows near 64F.
Seattle WA: Partly cloudy with a high near 86F and lows near 63F.
September 13, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: A tropical wave pushing off the coast of Mexico will bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the coast of Mexico and will also need to be watched for tropical development. Low pressure over Arizona is drawing moisture from the tropical wave leading to enhanced flooding over the Southwest US from Colorado to Arizona. Low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska will bring strong winds and rainfall to the coast.
Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Humberto currently has winds around 65kts and pressure near 984mb. The storm will continue to move northward. Tropical Depression Gabrielle has winds around 30kts and pressure of 1007mb. This storm will continue to weaken as it moves north. Tropical Depression 10 has developed over the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and will bring heavy rains to Mexico and Southern Texas. Low pressure moving off the East Coast of the US will bring a few thunderstorms to the Southeast US. Low pressure moving towards Greenland will bring showers to the region. Low pressure moving through Central Europe will bring showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Man-Yi has developed to the southeast of Japan near Iwo Jima and is forecasted to gain strength. Winds are currently around 35kts and pressure near 996mb. This storm has the potential of impacting Japan in the next few days. A second strong area of low pressure to the northeast of Guam is being watched for possible tropical development.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon will bring moderate rainfall to the region of India and Sri Lanka.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple waves moving through the region will impact Southern Argentina along with Southern Chile bringing snow and rain showers. A second low will bring strong winds to South Africa. A third will bring showers and gusty winds to Southern Australia from Perth to Sydney. This area will see moderate rainfall along with gusty winds.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for September 13-17:
Baltimore MD: The region will start out impact free. As a frontal boundary moves through around the 16th the region will see slight to moderate impacts.
Mobile AL: The region will have slight to moderate impacts from the 14-15th and then again on the 17th as multiple cold fronts move through the region.
Fargo ND: The region will have moderate impacts today. On the 17th more impacts are expected as another cold front moves through the region.
Billings MT: The region will start out impact free and finish up with slight to moderate impacts as thunderstorms move through the region.
Seattle WA: The region will enjoy nice weather over the next five days.
Climate Watch for September 8-12:
Baltimore MD: The period started with temps around 8 degrees above normal followed by a short one day period of temps around 3 degrees below. The period finished with temps around 3-15 degrees above normal.
Mobile AL: The past five days have been warm with temps around 3-5 degrees above normal.
Fargo ND: The period started with temps around 3 degrees below normal. The remainder of the period finished with temps around 1-10 degrees above normal.
Billings MT: The period started with temps around 1-2 degrees below normal and then finished the period with temps around 6-8 degrees above normal.
Seattle WA: The region has seen five days with temps around 7-21 degrees above normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 13, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure building into the Northern Plains and the Western Lakes will bring another cool day along with frost and freeze conditions overnight, especially along the Great Lakes. Low pressure over the Southwest will bring extreme flooding conditions to the region from Arizona to Colorado. An upper level ridge over the Southeast and Gulf Coast will bring another warm and dry day. The West Coast will enjoy a nice day as well. Day two high pressure will push into the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure over the Southwest will bring another day of flooding rains to the region. A tropical system will be pushing towards Northeast Mexico and Southern Texas bringing gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the region. Showers and thunderstorms will surge northward over the Plains as well. The period will end with the tropical pushing over land over Northern Mexico and Southern Texas, while a new storm system pushes into the Pacific Northwest.
Day 4-7: The period will start with high pressure over the East Coast. A storm system moving over the Northern Plains will bring showers to the region. The tropical moisture will bring another day of heavy rainfall over Southern Texas. The period will end with low pressure extending from the Great Lakes to Texas leading to areas of very heavy rainfall across the region. Another powerful storm system will be pushing into the Pacific Northwest which will lead to moderate rainfall over the Cascades.
Day 8-12: The period will start with low pressure extending along the East Coast with plenty of showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. This will extend into the Gulf Coast. Strong high pressure will build in over Southern Canada and the Great Lakes region bringing more cool weather to the area. Another strong storm system will be pushing into the Pacific Northwest bringing moderate rainfall to the region. Day ten high pressure over the East Coast and a developing low pressure over the Northern Plains will bring very strong southerly winds. Along with that expect to see a high chance of severe weather over the area. A new tropical feature may be pushing off Florida and up the East Coast. The period will finish with a tropical feature moving off shore up the East Coast, while another storm system pushes into the Pacific Northwest.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with high pressure over the Southeast and another strong storm system moving into the Northern Plains. The period will finish with low pressure moving through the Northern Plains. A new tropical feature will also possibly be moving over the Northern Gulf.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Houston TX:
Friday: Partly cloudy with a high near 98F and lows near 74F. Winds from the southeast 2-7mph.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 94F and lows near 76F, Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Total rainfall around 0.10 inches.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 90F and lows near 77F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Total rainfall around 0.15 inches.
Monday: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. High temps around 88F and lows near 76F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Total rainfall around 0.15 inches.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. High temps around 88F and lows near 76F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Total rainfall around 0.10 inches.
Ask The Weatherman for September 13, 2013:
Question: What does the term “convection” mean?
Answer: Convection is defined as an area of cumulus clouds that develop and begin to cover more area. These clouds can cover the entire sky and also lead to heavy rainfall and severe weather. When we talk about convection, we most often refer to thunderstorms.
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Green Energy Weather Report for September 13, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be moderate to extreme amounts of energy over the Northeast. The Mid-Atlantic will see moderate amounts of energy. The Southeast will have slight to moderate amounts of energy. The Northern Gulf will see slight to moderate amounts of energy as well. The Southwest will have moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Northwest will have moderate amounts.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy from the Mid-Atlantic through the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast. There will also be ample amounts of solar energy from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and West Coast.
Wind Energy: The best place for wind energy today will be over the Great Lakes and also back into the Northern Rockies.
Hydro-Energy: There will be ample amounts of hydro energy over portions of the Great Lakes along with the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. There will be dangerous amounts of energy that will lead to dam breaking over the Colorado region along with Arizona. This region needs to be on high alert for the situation to possibly get worse over the next few days.
September 13 Weather and Your Wallet (Denver CO):
Upslope flow over the region is going to lead to another dangerous day with more flooding rains likely.
Dining: Today would be best to take your lunch to work.
Transportation: There will be delays as many roads are beginning to wash out. There will be delays at the airport due to thunderstorms, turbulence and heavy rainfall.
Shopping: If you plan on shopping today, make sure to take your umbrella and watch out for high water on the roadways.
Electricity: There will be a very small window of cooling this afternoon during the 2-4pm period. Otherwise the clouds and rain will keep it fairly cool over the region.
Yard Work: It would best to just take the day off from outdoor projects as flooding and heavy rain has made the yards super-saturated. There could also be a possible increase in landslides as well along the mountain slopes.
Construction: There will be impacts on any outdoor projects today and an increased need for road construction to fix these washed out roads.
Outdoor Venues: Today will be a good day to re-schedule those outdoor venues as the safety is a high concern with all the rain and flooding going on over the region.