Big Story Weather – September 18, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 17:
High pressure over the East Coast brought a very cold night to the region as temps fell to the freezing point. Rainfall was heavy over the Southwest. We saw two tornadoes in Idaho, two inch hail in Utah, and damaging winds in Montana with gusts around 80-85mph.
Big Story Weather Discussion for September 18:
Surface Map: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region will bring cool temps and partly cloudy skies to the East Coast. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region. There will also be snowfall over Northern Montana. The southwest monsoon will bring moderate rainfall to the Southwest and a strong easterly flow will bring thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast.
Severe Weather: There will be a chance for strong to severe storms along the Gulf Coast. The biggest threat will be heavy rainfall. Another day of severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Southwest with the possibility of heavy rainfall. The Plains region will see a mix of large hail and isolated tornadoes along with damaging winds.
Fire Weather: There is an elevated fire risk over southwest South Dakota today due to very low relative humidity along with strong winds in the region.
Winter Weather: High pressure will bring yet another cool night to the Northeast with the chance of seeing frost/freeze conditions. There will also be a pocket of frost/freeze conditions over Northern California and Southern Oregon. A winter weather advisory over Northern Montana is in effect for today and tonight with the chance of seeing 2-4 inches of snowfall over the region.
Flooding: Some flooding is still expected over Northeast Colorado as the rivers begin to push all the water downstream. Look for localized flooding in some areas.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Humberto remains over the open Atlantic and should be no threat to land over the next 24 hours. A new area near the Yucatan Peninsula has a high chance of becoming a tropical feature later today and should be watched as there is a potential that this feature will turn towards the Northeast.
Select City Forecast:
Buffalo NY: Partly cloudy with a high near 65F and overnight lows near 57F.
Houston TX: The region will see partly cloudy skies and warm conditions with high temps around 93F and overnight lows near 74F.
Fargo ND: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 75F and overnight lows near 49F. Total rainfall around 0.30 inches.
Billings MT: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 80F and overnight lows near 59F.
Seattle WA: Partly cloudy with a high near 81F and overnight lows near 63F.
September 18, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression Manuel has re-emerged over the Baja bringing areas of heavy rainfall to the region and gusty winds around 30kts. Low pressure to the south of Alaska is bringing a few showers to the region along with higher elevation snows.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Humberto has winds around 35kts and will continue to track northward over the open Atlantic. A new area over the Yucatan Peninsula is being watched for a high chance of tropical formation today. Winds are now around 25kts and pressure around 1004mb. Low pressure moving towards Greenland will bring showers and snow showers to the region. Low pressure moving through Northern Europe will bring showers to the region. Low pressure moving through Central Russia will bring showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Usagi currently has winds around 55kts and pressure near 992mb. This storm will gain strength and continue moving westward towards Taiwan. Tropical Depression 18W has developed just to the east of Vietnam and will move onshore in the next couple of days. Winds are currently around 25kts and pressure of 1004mb. A third area to the northeast of Guam also has the potential for tropical development. Low pressure moving over Eastern China and Northeast Russia will bring showers to the region.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon will be very active again today over portions of India and Sri Lanka.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure are moving through the basin with impacts being felt over Southern Argentina and Chile with rain and snow showers for the area. A second area moving south of Africa will bring moderate winds to South Africa. A third low pressure is bringing rain showers and stronger winds to Southwest Australia to include Perth AUS.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for September 18-22:
Buffalo NY: The region will start out impact free. A frontal boundary will move into the region later in the week bringing a moderate impact with thunderstorms to the region.
Houston TX: There will be slight to moderate impacts over the period of Sep 19-22 as afternoon thunderstorms develop over the region.
Fargo ND: There will be moderate impacts today and then again on the 22nd as another round of thunderstorms moves into the region.
Billings MT: The region will begin impact free followed by a round of thunderstorms on the 22nd and 23rd as a frontal boundary moves into the region.
Seattle WA: The region will start out impact free. By the end of the forecast period a cold rain will move into the region creating a slight impact over the area.
Climate Watch for September 13-17:
Buffalo NY: The region has seen temps around 4-15 degrees below normal for the past five days.
Houston TX: The past five days temps have been around 1-6 degrees above normal for the region.
Fargo ND: The period started with temps around 5 degrees above and then the rest of the period temps have been around 2-10 degrees below normal.
Billings MT: The past five days have seen temps around 2-10 degrees above normal.
Seattle WA: The past five days temps have been around 1-6 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 18, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will bring a nice day to the region. This will extend into the Northeast as well. Strong easterly flow will setup over the Southeast and Gulf Coast providing the region with afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms. Low pressure moving through the Northern Plains will bring strong thunderstorms to the region. The southwest monsoon will bring another day of showers and thunderstorms to the region. The majority of the West Coast will enjoy partly cloudy skies and warm weather. There will be the chance of seeing accumulating snow over Northwest Montana above 6,000 feet. Day two high pressure will bring partly cloudy skies to the East Coast. A storm system will shift out of the Plains into the Western Lakes bringing moderate rainfall along with some severe weather. The tropical feature will push into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico near Texas. High pressure will build in over the Northern Rockies, while another low pressure will begin to approach the Pacific Northwest. The period will finish with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes extending into the Gulf Coast. Expect the tropical feature to be absorbed into the front bringing heavy rainfall to the Gulf Coast. High pressure will dominate the weather over the Plains. The new storm system will bring showers to the Pacific Northwest.
Day 4-7: The period will start with low pressure over the Northeast and also the Gulf Coast bringing very heavy rainfall along the boundary. High pressure will dominate the Plains along with strong gradient bringing strong winds over the region. The storm system will bring showers to the Pacific Northwest. Day five low pressure will move over the Mid-Atlantic region bringing moderate rainfall to the region. High pressure will shift into the Great Lakes and low pressure will push into the Rockies. The period will end with high pressure along the East Coast and another storm system moving into the Plains.
Day 8-12: The period will start with high pressure over the East Coast. A powerful storm system will be in the Northern Plains bringing an elevated chance for severe weather. High pressure will keep the West Coast nice. Day ten high pressure will be over the East Coast and the Rockies. A storm system will be pushing through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes with showers and thunderstorms possible. Day eleven the storm system will extend from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast bringing moderate rainfall to the region. The period will finish with low pressure along the East Coast and another tropical wave moving south of Puerto Rico.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with low pressure over the Southern Plains and a tropical wave near Cuba. The period will finish with low pressure over the Northeast. Another tropical wave will be pushing into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will dominate the majority of the country from the Mississippi River to the West Coast with partly cloudy skies.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Detroit MI:
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a high near 71F. Winds from the southeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 57F.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 80F. Winds from the southwest 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 67F. Total rainfall will be around 0.25 inches.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 77F. Winds from the northwest 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 54F. Total rainfall will be around 0.40 inches.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 60F. Winds from the northwest 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 40F.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high near 62F. Winds from the northeast 9-14mph. Overnight lows near 41F.
Ask The Weatherman for September 18, 2013:
Question: What is the difference between a Typhoon and a Hurricane?
Answer: The only difference between a Typhoon and a Hurricane is the ocean basin that they are located in. Typhoons are located in the Western Pacific and once a storm passes the International Date line it will become a Typhoon. When the storm is in the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic they are called hurricanes.
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Green Energy Weather Report for September 18, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be light amounts of wave energy over the Northeast and also the Mid-Atlantic. The Southeast will see light to moderate amounts. The Northern Gulf Coast will see light to moderate amounts of energy. The Southern Gulf will see moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Southwest will see moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Pacific Northwest will have moderate amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy over the entire East Coast. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will have ample amounts of energy early before the thunderstorms move into the region. The West Coast will also see ample amounts of solar energy.
Wind Energy: The strongest winds will be over the Northern Plains behind the cold front and also over Southern Texas.
Hydro-Energy: There will be ample amounts of moisture over the Plains and the Southwest. The Gulf Coast and Southeast will see lighter amounts of energy.
September 18 Weather and Your Wallet (Baltimore MD):
High pressure will bring a nice day to the region.
Dining: There will be no issues with heading outside for lunch.
Transportation: There will be no weather impacts on the roads or at the airport today.
Shopping: This afternoon will be a nice day to get out and enjoy the fall sales.
Electricity: There will be a small window of heating needed during the overnight hours.
Yard Work: Today will be a nice day to get out and enjoy some yard work.
Construction: There will be no issues with outdoor projects today with plenty of sunshine over the area.
Outdoor Venues: A great day to get outdoors and enjoy the sights.