Big Story Weather – September 19, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 18:
Yesterday we saw more heavy rainfall over portions of the Southwest US where flood warnings are in effect right now. There was also an increase in severe weather over the Northern Plains with many places in eastern North Dakota and South Dakota dealing with localized flooding this morning. Severe weather yesterday included 2-inch hail in both South Dakota and North Dakota. There were multiple wind damage reports with the strongest gusts being 60-70mph occurring across multiple states over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Big Story Weather Discussion for September 19:
Surface Map: High pressure along the East Coast will bring partly cloudy skies to most of the Mid-Atlantic region. Onshore flow is developing over the Southeast and Gulf Coast which will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms. A strong cold front moving through the Plains and the Western Great Lakes will bring another day of heavy rainfall along with some severe weather. Low pressure over the Southwest will bring another day of monsoonal rains over the region. High pressure over the West will keep most of the region dry and mild.
Severe Weather: There will be isolated pockets of severe weather along the Southeast and Gulf Coast. The biggest threat will be heavy rainfall. A second pocket of severe weather will be possible over the Southwest. This region will see heavy rainfall and strong winds. The third location will be along the front leading to heavy rainfall, strong winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado will be possible.
Winter Weather: High pressure over the Rockies will be responsible for some frost/freeze conditions over portions of Nevada and Utah in the higher elevations.
Flooding: Some flooding will be possible in portions of Western Texas and also some short-term flooding will be possible in the Northern Plains.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Depression Humberto remains over the open Atlantic and should be no threat to land over the next 24 hours. The potential is there for yet another redevelopment back into Tropical Storm strength. A new area near the Yucatan Peninsula has a high chance of becoming a tropical feature later today. This area also needs to be watched as there is a potential that this feature turns towards the Northeast.
Select City Forecast:
Boston MA: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 64F and overnight lows near 58F.
Atlanta GA: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 87F and overnight lows near 72F.
Sioux City IA: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 77F and overnight lows near 65F. Total rainfall will be around 0.45 inches.
Rapid City SD: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 75F and overnight lows near 55F.
Boise ID: Partly cloudy and warm with a high near 89F and overnight lows near 70F.
September 19, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Manuel is traveling up the Baja this morning bringing winds around 65kts and pressure of 987mb to portions of Mexico leading to flooding and wind damage over the region. Low pressure moving into Western Canada will also bring gusty winds and moderate rainfall to the region.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Depression Humberto continues to turn over the Atlantic with winds around 30kts and pressure of 1007mb. There is a chance that it will regain tropical storm strength as it continues to move over the open Atlantic. Low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula is being watched for possible tropical development later today. Low pressure moving over Greenland will bring showers to the region. A cold front moving through the Plains will bring heavy rain along with strong storms to the region. Low pressure moving over Northern Russia will bring a few showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Typhoon Usagi continues to travel south of Taiwan towards a landfall in China. Winds are now around 90kts and pressure of 956mb. The storm will gain more strength prior to making landfall and could possibly be near Super-Typhoon strength. A second area north of Guam is also being watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving across Northeast Russia will bring showers and cooler weather to the region.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon will be very active again today over portions of India and Sri Lanka.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple low pressure areas moving across the basin with impacts being felt over the Fiji Islands with heavy rainfall. Impacts are also being felt over portions of Argentina with strong winds and heavy rainfall. A third area will be impacting Southern Africa with showers and gusty winds. Another area will bring impacts to Southern Australia.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for September 19-23:
Boston MA: There will be no impacts over the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms will move in later during the period bringing slight to moderate impacts to the region.
Atlanta GA: The region will start out impact free. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region later in the period.
Sioux City IA: There will be moderate impacts today. Around the 23rd another frontal boundary will move into the region.
Rapid City SD: The region will start out impact free. The period will finish with showers and thunderstorms impacting the region bringing slight to moderate impacts.
Boise ID: The region will start out impact free. Around the middle of the period thunderstorms will move in bringing a moderate impact to the region.
Climate Watch for September 14-18:
Boston MA: The region saw temps around 1-12 degrees below normal to start the period and then finished around 3 degrees above normal.
Atlanta GA: The area has seen ups and downs with temps ranging from around 1-7 degrees above normal and also 4-14 degrees below normal through the past five days.
Sioux City IA: The region started with temps around 1-2 degrees above and then fell to around 4-7 degrees below normal and finished around 13 degrees above normal.
Rapid City SD: The region started about 5 degrees above and then cooled to around 5-6 degrees below normal and finished around 17-18 degrees above normal.
Boise ID: The region started with temps around 7-11 degrees above normal and finished around 2-9 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 19, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure along the East coast will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. Return flow brings afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. The Northern Plains and the Great Lakes will have showers and thunderstorms. This will extend into the Southern Plains as well. High pressure will dominate the West. Hurricane Manuel will bring moderate rainfall to the Baja and the tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula will start to push into the Southwest Gulf. Day two showers and thunderstorms will start to surge northward over the Gulf of Mexico towards the Gulf Coast. The strong storm system will also begin to push into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will dominate both coasts during this time. The period will finish with low pressure moving into the Eastern Lakes and Northeast. The associated frontal boundary will extend all the way to the Gulf Coast bringing very heavy rainfall to the region. High pressure will be over the Plains, while another storm system enters the Pacific Northwest.
Day 4-7: The period will start with low pressure over the Eastern US. Heavy rainfall will establish itself over the Gulf Coast around the new low which is developing. Strong gradient between the high and low pressure will bring strong winds over the Northern Plains. Showers will impact the Pacific Northwest. Day six low pressure will move up the East Coast bringing heavy rains and also strong winds to the region. The period will finish with high pressure along both coasts and another storm system moving into the Rockies.
Day 8-12: The period will start with a very powerful low pressure area over the Plains bringing severe weather to the region. Day ten high pressure will be along both coasts again. The strong storm system will push into the Northern Plains and Southern Canada bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Another tropical wave will move south of Puerto Rico. Day eleven another storm system will stretch from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Expect to see strong storms and heavy rainfall along this front. The period will end with the strong easterly wave to the south of Cuba.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with a low pressure moving through the Plains. High pressure will dominate both coasts. The middle of the period will have low pressure moving into the Great Lakes bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. The easterly wave will be just south of Cuba and moving slowly. The period will finish with low pressure moving along the Northeast bringing showers to the region. The tropical wave will push over Cuba and to the north. A weak upper level trough may bring some snowfall to portions of Northern Montana and also Western North Dakota.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Dallas TX:
Thursday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 90F and overnight lows near 74F. Winds from the southeast at 5-10mph. Total rainfall will be around 0.45 inches.
Friday: Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, some may be strong. High temps around 78F and overnight lows near 64F. Winds from the northeast at 5-10mph. Total rainfall near 1.15 inches.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a high near 86F and overnight lows near 59F. Winds from the northeast at 9-14mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and cool with a high near 82F and overnight lows near 56F. Winds from the southeast at 2-7mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy with a high near 84F and overnight lows near 60F. Winds from the southeast at 5-10mph.
Ask The Weatherman for September 19, 2013:
Question: Where do tornadoes form?
Answer: Tornadoes usually form in a few key locations. The first is associated with land falling hurricanes. The second is ahead of a cold front. A more isolated location is ahead of a warm front if conditions are right.
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Green Energy Weather Report for September 19, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be light amounts of wave energy over the Northeast and also the Mid-Atlantic. The Southeast will see light to moderate amounts. The Northern Gulf Coast will see light to moderate amounts of energy. The Southern Gulf will see moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Southwest will see moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Pacific Northwest will have moderate amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy over the entire East Coast. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will have ample amounts of energy early before the thunderstorms move into the region. The West coast will also see ample amounts of solar energy.
Wind Energy: The strongest winds will be over the Northern Plains behind the cold front and also over Eastern New Mexico in between the frontal boundary and also the low pressure to the southwest of the region.
Hydro-Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the Plains and the Western Great Lakes along the frontal boundary and also into the Southwest. There will be light amounts of energy over the Southeast and Gulf Coast.
September 19 Weather and Your Wallet (Mobile AL):
Easterly flow will bring increased chances for thunderstorms this afternoon.
Dining: This morning will be a good time to get out and enjoy breakfast at your favorite outdoor spot.
Transportation: This afternoon expect to see some minor slowdowns on the roads and also at the airport as thunderstorms move in.
Shopping: There will be periods of heavy rainfall this afternoon so make sure to take your umbrella if you have shopping plans.
Electricity: Today bring around 17CDD’s so expect to need the air conditioner, especially this afternoon as high temps reach near 90.
Yard Work: This morning will be a good chance to get out and get the work done before the showers and thunderstorms move in this afternoon and it gets too hot.
Construction: There will be some delays this afternoon during the thunderstorms.
Outdoor Venues: This morning would be the best time to get out for a walk or to enjoy the sights.