Big Story Weather – September 30, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 27-29:
A powerful fall storm slammed into the Pacific Northwest bringing gale force winds, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and snowfall to the region. Severe weather was fairly limited over this past weekend with the 27th finding 1-inch hail in Kansas and wind gusts of 70-80mph in Nebraska. On Saturday, severe weather was limited to wind gusts of 50-60mph in Washington and Oregon. Sunday was a non-severe day outside of the significant weather that was hammering the Northwest. Snowfall totals have been reported with well near or over 1ft of snowfall for the higher elevations of the Rockies.
Big Story Weather Discussion for September 30:
Surface Map: High pressure off the East Coast will bring another nice day with partly cloudy skies. A dissipating frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast will bring a few thunderstorms to the region. Tropical moisture will be on the increase over South Florida. A powerful storm system will wreak havoc over the Northwest and the Rockies again today with heavy rains, flooding, and snowfall.
Severe Weather: Isolated areas of damaging winds will be possible over the Gulf Coast.
Winter Weather: Winter weather advisories are in place over the Cascades and Northern Rockies with around 2-5 inches of additional snowfall possible today.
Flooding: There is an elevated potential of additional flooding over the Pacific Northwest.
Tropical Weather: This past weekend Tropical Depression 11 developed over the Atlantic and will more than likely become the next tropical storm of the season. Tracks show that it should not become an issue for landfall. Another area of tropical development is being watched just south of Cuba and Jamaica. This area has a low chance of development at this time, however in the five day window there is a pretty good chance that this area will develop and have possible impacts over the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida.
Winds: Strong winds will be in place over portions of the Northwest, the Northern Rockies and portions of the Dakotas.
Select City Forecast:
New York NY: Partly cloudy skies today and a nice touch of fall in the air. High temps near 70F and overnight lows near 59F.
Gulfport MS: Expect afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 84F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall around 0.35 inches.
Minneapolis MN: Partly cloudy with a high near 74F and overnight lows near 62F.
Billings MT; Cold and cloudy with showers. High temps around 54F and overnight lows near 44F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches.
Seattle WA: Cloudy cool with showers. High temps around 55F and overnight lows near 47F. Total rainfall around 0.45 inches.
September 30, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring another round of heavy rainfall and higher elevation snows to the region. Low pressure moving over the Canadian Rockies will bring another day of rain and snow showers to the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies.
Atlantic Ocean: Low pressure moving over Eastern Canada will bring showers to the region. Tropical Depression 11 will continue to move over the Atlantic and should become a tropical storm later this afternoon. It should remain over open water and with no impacts to land at this time. Another tropical feature to the southeast of Cuba will need to be watched for possible tropical development as the potential over the next five days does show signs. Low pressure moving through Central Europe will bring showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Typhoon Wutip is nearing Vietnam with winds around 80kts and a pressure of 963mb. There are two other areas being watched for possible tropical development as well. Low pressure moving over the Kuril Islands will bring a frontal boundary back to portions of Japan allowing for moderate rainfall in places. A new low developing near Shanghai will bring showers to portions of Eastern China.
Indian Ocean: The monsoon has retreated and will allow for more of a diurnal type thunderstorm activity across the region.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure transiting through the basin with impacts being felt over Southern portions of South America with showers and gusty winds. Strong winds and showers will move through Southern Africa with another frontal boundary. A third area of low pressure and the associated cold front will bring showers and gusty winds to portions of Southern Australia.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for September 30- October 4:
New York NY: The next five days will be dominated by high pressure allowing the area to see partly cloudy skies and be impact free.
Gulfport MS: The next five days two frontal boundaries will move through the region keeping moderate impacts in the region.
Minneapolis MN: The period will start impact free with partly cloudy skies. As the week ends, a storm system will move into the region bringing showers and impacts.
Billings MT: The region will see impacts over the first part of the period giving way to partly cloudy skies during the middle of the period. The period will finish with moderate impacts and another round of showers.
Seattle WA: The area will start with moderate impacts as showers continue to plaque the region. The period will then finish impact free as partly cloudy skies move back into the region.
Climate Watch Almanac for September 25-29:
New York NY: The period started with temps around 1-4 degrees below normal and then finished the period with temps around 1-2 degrees above normal.
Gulfport MS: The period started with temps around 6-8 degrees above normal and then fell to normal. This was followed by another period of temps around 1-2 degrees above normal and then finished the period near normal.
Minneapolis MN: The past five days have been warm with temps around 6-19 degrees above normal.
Billings MT: The period has been dominated with temps well below normal – ranging from around 3-19 degrees below normal. The period finished with temps about 5 degrees above normal.
Seattle WA: The past five days have brought temps around 4-10 degrees below normal to the region.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for September 30, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure along the Eastern US will bring partly cloudy skies to the region. A dissipating frontal boundary over the Gulf Coast will be the focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The Plains will enjoy a nice day. The Rockies and back into the Pacific Northwest will see moderate rainfall and snowfall. High pressure will dominate the East Coast again during day two. We will need to start watching a tropical system near Cuba during this time. The period will end with high pressure over the East Coast, while a cold front moves through the Plains. This will bring showers and thunderstorms all the way to the Gulf Coast. The tropical feature will push into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico as well. A few showers and snow showers will persist over the Cascades and Northern Rockies.
Day 4-7: The period will start with a potent low pressure area moving into the Plains bringing heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and snowfall over the Black Hills. The tropical feature will begin to push moisture into Western Florida and the Northern Gulf Coast. Day five the strong storm system will stall out over the Plains bringing another day of moderate rainfall, thunderstorms and snowfall over the Black Hills. Day six the storm system will finally move into the Great Lakes bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. This will extend into the Gulf Coast as well as it merges with the tropical moisture over the region. High pressure will slide into the Southern Plains. The period will end with a frontal boundary over the East Coast bringing heavy rainfall to the region and thunderstorms over the Southeast.
Day 8-12: The period will start with a strong storm system over the East Coast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will build into the Ohio River Valley. Another weak storm system will push into the Northern Plains, while high pressure will be over the Rockies. Day ten high pressure will be over the majority of the United States, while showers and snow showers will begin to move into the Northwest again. The middle of the period will be tranquil across a good part of the United States as high pressure dominates the weather.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with low pressure moving up the East Coast, but should remain far enough off shore to be no impacts to the area. High pressure will again dominate a good portion of the United States. The period will finish with low pressure pushing into the Northwest.
Today’s Spotlight Cities Forecast:
Orlando FL: Showers will dominate the weather today. High temps around 88F and overnight lows near 70F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Tuesday: partly cloudy with a high near 88F and overnight lows near 72F. Wednesday: partly cloudy with a high near 88F and overnight lows near 74F. Thursday: cloudy with a few showers. High temps around 88F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Friday: partly cloudy with a high near 82F and overnight lows near 74F.
Chicago IL: Partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 58F. Tuesday: partly cloudy with a high near 78F and overnight lows near 57F. Wednesday: partly cloudy with a high near 77F and overnight lows near 64F. Thursday: cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms. High temps around 80F and overnight lows near 67F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Friday: partly cloudy with a high near 78F and overnight lows near 64F.
Salt Lake City UT: Partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 44F. Tuesday: partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 46F. Wednesday: partly cloudy with a high near 66F and overnight lows near 46F. Thursday: mostly cloudy cold with showers. High temps around 47F and overnight lows near 34F. Total rainfall around 1 inch. Friday: partly cloudy and very cool with a high near 47F and overnight lows near 28F -a season ending freeze is very likely overnight.
Ask The Weatherman for September 30, 2013:
Question: What is the wind flow around a low pressure system?
Answer: For this question we will examine the wind flow around a low pressure in the Northern Hemisphere. Winds around low pressure flow counter-clockwise. This means that ahead of the cold front winds will be from the south, while behind the cold front and the low pressure winds will shift to the northwest.
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Green Energy Weather Report for September 30, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be moderate amounts of energy over the Northeast. Moderate levels of energy over the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast. The Gulf Coast will see light amounts of energy slowly increasing. There will be extreme amounts of energy along the Pacific Northwest due to the strong storm system moving into the region. There will also be moderate amounts of energy over the Southwest.
Hydro Energy: The largest areas of both short term and long term energy will be over the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the Northeast, the Great Lakes, most of the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Wind Energy: The strongest wind energy today will come over the Northern Plains and also back into the Pacific Northwest.
September 30 Weather and Your Wallet (Boise ID):
Low pressure moving through the region will again bring another day of showers and cool temps.
Dining: This morning there will be impacts as the moderate rainfall continues to move through the region. You might want to take your lunch to work instead.
Transportation: There will be delays this morning during the commute, however this afternoon conditions should improve.
Shopping: You will want an umbrella if you’re out shopping this morning.
Electricity: Today will provide the region with a big cool down. The forecast is for 14HDD’s.
Yard Work: This morning will be dreary, however later this afternoon there may be a chance to get out and clean up the yard after these past few days of rainfall.
Construction: Look for impacts this morning as the showers hang over the region.
Outdoor Venues: This morning you might want to reschedule that walk in the park. This evening will probably be a better time to take that walk as the rain showers should move out of the region.