Big Story Weather – October 1, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from September 30:
Another day of higher elevation snows, strong winds, heavy coastal rains and flooding for the Pacific Northwest. Severe weather was limited, however there was a rare tornado touchdown around the Seattle area. There were also damaging winds in western South Dakota between 60-85mph.
Big Story Weather Discussion for October 1:
Surface Map: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will keep the region nice for another day with mild temps and partly cloudy skies. A strong cold front will make its way across the Great Lakes and extend into the Southern Plains and the Western Gulf Coast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure over the Southwest will keep the area nice. Another day of showers and higher elevation snows over the Pacific Northwest.
Severe Weather: Isolated areas of damaging winds will be possible along the Gulf Coast.
Winter Weather: A winter weather advisory for the western portion of Washington at higher elevations. Snowfall around 1-3 inches possible.
Flooding: There will be a moderate coastal threat over the Pacific Northwest to see flooding.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Jerry has developed in the Atlantic with winds around 35kts and pressure of 1008mb. The storm will move slowly to the north and remain over open waters. A second area is still being watched for possible tropical development just south of Cuba with winds around 20kts and pressure near 1009mb. This area needs to be watched closely if you live anywhere from Mississippi to Florida.
Winds: The strongest winds today will be over the Northern Plains where wind gusts could hit 50mph.
Select City Forecast:
Buffalo NY: Partly cloudy with a high near 67F and overnight lows near 59F.
Dallas TX: Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms. High temps around 83F and overnight lows near 71F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Sioux Falls SD: Partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 57F.
Denver CO: Partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 56F.
Boise ID: Partly cloudy with a high near 57F and overnight lows near 48F.
October 1, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring showers, high elevation snows and gusty winds to the area.
Atlantic Ocean: Low pressure moving through Central Canada will bring a cold front and showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Low pressure along the Northeast coast will bring showers to Eastern Canada. A tropical wave south of Cuba is being watched for possible tropical development. Tropical Storm Jerry has winds around 35kts and pressure of 1008mb but should remain over the open Atlantic and pose no threat to land. Low pressure moving through Central Europe will bring showers to the region. Another tropical wave has emerged over the Atlantic and will need to be watched as well.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Wutip has made landfall over Vietnam with winds around 50kts and pressure of 985mb. The storm is still bringing flooding rains and strong winds to the area. Tropical Storm Sepat is currently to the southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds around 35kts and pressure near 1000mb. This storm will remain over the open Pacific and pose no threat to land. Tropical Storm Fitow is just east of Manila with winds around 35kts and pressure of 1000mb. This storm is going to gain strength and also move towards the island of Okinawa. Low pressure moving over Eastern Russia will bring showers to the region.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon has retreated and will allow for more of a diurnal type thunderstorm activity across the region.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin with thunderstorms over the Fiji Island. Impacts are also being felt over Argentina and Southern Brazil with showers. A third low pressure is bringing gusty winds to South Africa, while another area of low pressure will bring showers to portions of Southern Australia.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 1-5:
Buffalo NY: The region will start impact free. By midweek look for showers to move into the region creating some impacts for the local area.
Dallas TX: Over the next five days the region is going to have slight to moderate impacts as showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Sioux Falls SD: The area will start out impact free. A strong cold front will then move through bringing showers to the region and moderate impacts.
Denver CO: The region will start out impact free. The period will finish with slight impacts as showers move into the region.
Boise ID: The area will have impacts towards the end of the week as another frontal boundary moves through the region.
Climate Watch Almanac for September 26-30:
Buffalo NY: The past five days the region has seen temps around 4-9 degrees above normal.
Dallas TX: The past five days have been warm with temps around 1-6 degrees above normal.
Sioux Falls SD: The period started with temps around 8-12 degrees above normal and then fell to around 5 degrees below normal before finishing the period aorund13-14 degrees above normal.
Denver CO: The period started with temps around 5-19 degrees below normal and then warmed to around 3-10 degrees above normal to finish the period.
Boise ID: The past five days temps have been cool around 2-15 degrees below normal for the area.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 1, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic will keep most of the East Coast nice and mild today. A frontal boundary extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure over the Southwest will keep the region warm and dry. On shore flow will bring another day of showers and higher elevation snows over Washington. Day two high pressure will keep the East Coast nice. A strong storm system will develop over the Southwest and move into the Plains with showers and thunderstorms. Showers and snow showers will continue over portions of the Pacific Northwest. A tropical feature will enter the Southeast Gulf of Mexico near Cuba and will need to be watched for tropical development. The period will finish with a powerful low pressure over the Plains with showers extending into the Great Lakes and back over the Northern Plains. There will also be snow showers over portions of the Black Hills. Heavy snowfall may be possible over Wyoming as well. High pressure will keep the West Coast nice, while a tropical wave or depression will move into the Central Gulf just to the south of the MS/AL coast.
Day 4-7: The period will start with the strong storm system over the Plains bringing heavy rainfall and snows to the Black Hills. The tropical feature will make landfall over the Northern Gulf bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the area. High pressure will build in over the Rockies. Day five the low pressure will move into the Great Lakes. The tropical will merge with the frontal boundary bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the MS/AL coast. Showers will extend all the way into the Great Lakes. The period will finish with low pressure moving up the Eastern US bringing heavy rainfall to the region, while the rest of the country enjoys high pressure.
Day 8-12: The period will start with high pressure dominating the country. There will be one weak upper level trough moving through the Northern Rockies. Otherwise a very tranquil start to the period. Day nine a strong storm system will develop over the Plains bringing another round of showers and even some snow showers to the Northern Plains. Severe thunderstorms could be found over the Southern Plains. Day ten high pressure over the East Coast will keep the region dry and cool. The storm system moving through the Plains brings another day of showers and snow showers to the Northern Plains and another round of severe weather to the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The period will finish with high pressure over the East Coast and a new developing low over Texas will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the region. Another tropical wave will be found to the southeast of Cuba.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with low pressure moving into the Great Lakes bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. An upper level low will move across the Northern Rockies bringing snowfall to the region. A tropical feature will move just south of Cuba during this time as well. The period will end with high pressure over a good portion of the US, while another strong tropical moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Today’s Spotlight Cities Forecast:
Boston MA: Partly cloudy with a high near 71F and overnight lows near 58F. Wednesday partly cloudy with a high near 78F and overnight lows near 53F. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 74F and overnight lows near 55F. Friday cloudy with showers and a high near 75F and overnight lows near 55F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches. Saturday partly cloudy and cool with a high near 67F and overnight lows near 54F.
Fargo ND: Partly cloudy with a high near 69F and overnight lows near 54F. Wednesday partly cloudy with a high near 62F and overnight lows near 45F. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 64 and overnight lows near 40F. Friday mostly cloudy with showers and a high near 48F and overnight lows near 34F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches. Saturday partly cloudy and cold with a high near 49F and overnight lows near 29F. This will bring with it the chance for a freeze overnight.
Portland OR: Cloudy with showers and a high near 55F and overnight lows near 43F. Total rainfall near 0.50 inches. Wednesday cloudy with showers a high near 52F and overnight lows near 42F. Total rainfall near 0.45 inches. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 62F and overnight lows near 40F. Friday partly cloudy with a high near 70F and overnight lows near 40F. Saturday partly cloudy and warmer with a high near 74F and overnight lows near 46F.
Ask The Weatherman for October 1, 2013:
Question: What is the difference between frost and a freeze?
Answer: There are a few differences. The first is the temperatures at which they occur. A frost is more likely between 28-32F, while a freeze is more likely below 28F – especially a hard freeze. The second has to do with the moisture in the air. If there is a lot of moisture present in the air you will more than likely see frost.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 1, 2013:
Wave Energy: The Northeast will have moderate amounts of wave energy today. The Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast will have slight amounts. The Gulf Coast will also have slight amounts of energy. The Southwest will see moderate amounts of energy, while the Pacific Northwest will be looking at extreme amounts of energy.
Hydro Energy: The best places for short and long term energy today will be over the Pacific Northwest – especially Washington. There will also be lighter amounts of energy along portions of the Gulf Coast.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast through most of the Southeast and up into the Mid-Atlantic and also the Northeast. There will be ample amounts of energy ahead of the front over portions of the Great Lakes as well.
Wind Energy: The largest amounts of wind energy will be over the Pacific Northwest and over the Northern Plains behind the cold front.
October 1 Weather and Your Wallet (Biloxi MS):
A stalled front to the west may trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms in the area today.
Dining: This evening will be a very nice night to get out and enjoy dinner at the beach front resorts.
Transportation: There may be some impacts this afternoon where the stronger cells develop.
Shopping: Take your umbrella just in case you get caught in one of these isolated thunderstorms.
Electricity: There will be a moderate demand for cooling today as the forecast is for 13CDD’s for the area.
Yard Work: This afternoon will be a good chance to get out and start draining the pools for the season.
Construction: There will be minimal delays this afternoon.
Outdoor Venues: This evening will be a nice night to take a walk along the beach front.