Big Story Weather – October 2, 2013
redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly
Big Story Weather from October 1:
No severe weather reported yesterday, however snowfall was reported over the Northern Rockies with places in Wyoming and Montana seeing around 1-3 inches and some places even more. Breezy conditions also set up over the Northern Plains with wind gusts over 50mph in Western North Dakota.
Big Story Weather Discussion for October 2:
Surface Map: High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will bring partly cloudy skies and mild weather to the East Coast. Low pressure developing over the Colorado Rockies will bring rain, thunderstorms and snowfall to the region from the Rockies to the Plains. High pressure over the West will keep the region cool and dry.
Severe Weather: There will be a chance of seeing gusty winds and also flooding rains along the Gulf Coast. Another area of severe weather will setup from Chicago to Texas bringing a chance for damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Winter Weather: A winter storm watch has been posted for the Rockies over Wyoming and parts of Montana along with the Black Hills of South Dakota. These places are going to see on average around 6-12 inches of snowfall with some localized heavier amounts.
Flooding: There will be a chance for some flooding along the Gulf Coast from a combination of heavy rainfall and also the setup of the onshore flow winds that will be in the 20-25mph range.
Tropical Weather: Tropical Storm Jerry has developed in the Atlantic with winds around 40kts and pressure of 1007mb. The storm will move slowly to the north and remain over open waters. A second area is still being watched for possible tropical development just south of Cuba with winds around 25kts and pressure near 1008mb. This area needs to be watched closely if you live anywhere from Mississippi to Florida as it is going to move northward before it gets absorbed into a cold front.
Winds: No major winds outside of thunderstorm gust.
Select City Forecast:
Baltimore MD: Partly cloudy with a high near 80F and overnight lows near 65F.
Mobile AL: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 82F and overnight lows near 72F. Total rainfall around 0.35 inches.
Chicago IL: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps around 74F and overnight lows near 65F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches.
Rapid City SD: Thunderstorms and a high near 57F and overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall near 0.65 inches.
Seattle WA: Partly cloudy with a high near 54F and overnight lows near 48F.
October 2, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring showers, high elevation snows and gusty winds to the area.
Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Jerry is over the open Atlantic with winds around 40kts and pressure near 1007mb. The storm will remain over open waters. The potential of seeing another tropical depression later today is possible with a feature south of Cuba. Winds are now around 25kts and pressure around 100mb. This needs to be watched as it will move northward towards the Gulf Coast this weekend. Low pressure over the Colorado Rockies is going to develop and possibly bring the first winter storm to a large area of the Rockies and the Black Hills. Another strong wave is pushing off the coast of Africa and will need to be watched for possible tropical development. Low pressure moving through Central Europe will bring showers to the region along with snow to the Alps.
Western Pacific: Tropical Storm Sepat continues to move up the coast of Japan with winds around 35kts and pressure around 996mb. This storm will quickly transition into a non-tropical storm over the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Fitow continues to gain strength and will be a typhoon within the next 24 hours as winds are now around 60kts and pressure near 985mb. Low pressure moving through Russia will bring showers and snow showers to the region.
Indian Ocean: The southwest monsoon has retreated and will allow for more of a diurnal type thunderstorm activity across the region.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin again with impacts being felt over Southern Chile and Argentina with gusty winds and showers. Low pressure moving well south of South Africa will still bring gusty winds to the area. Low pressure moving towards Sydney Australia will bring showers to the region.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 2-6:
Baltimore MD: The region will start out partly cloudy and impact free. By the 4th thunderstorms will move in bringing a slight impact to the region and then again on the 6th showers will impact the area.
Mobile AL: The region will have slight to moderate impacts all week associated with thunderstorms. On Oct 4-5 the region will have extreme impacts as possible tropical storm conditions could impact the region with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge.
Chicago IL: The region will see thunderstorms over the next few days. Expect to see moderate impacts with some severe weather possible. The period will end impact free.
Rapid City SD: The region will have slight to moderate impacts over the next few days associated with heavy rainfall. There will be moderate impacts with snowfall possible by 4th – some accumulation may be possible. The period will then finish impact free.
Seattle WA: Partly cloudy skies over the next five days leaving the region impact free.
Climate Watch Almanac for September 27- October 1:
Baltimore MD: The region started with temps around 1-2 degrees below normal, followed by temps near normal, then finished the period around 4-6 degrees above normal.
Mobile AL: The past five days have been above normal with temps around 1-3 degrees above normal.
Chicago IL: The period started with temps around 11-14 degrees above normal, followed by a brief period of temps around 1-2 degrees below normal and then finished the period around 5-7 degrees above normal.
Rapid City SD: The past five days have been warm with temps around 1-21 degrees above normal.
Seattle WA: The past five days have been cool with temps around 5-10 degrees below normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 2, 2013:
Day 1-3: High pressure will be off the Atlantic bringing partly cloudy skies to the East Coast. A strong frontal boundary will move through the Plains bringing showers, thunderstorms, severe weather and heavy snowfall over the Rockies and the Black Hills. Onshore flow over the Gulf Coast will increase rainfall over the region. High pressure over the West Coast will keep the region dry and mild. Day two the storm system will extend from the Plains into the Great Lakes creating an area of severe weather from the Plains to the Great Lakes. Heavy rainfall will be possible over the Dakotas. We are also looking at heavy snowfall over the Rockies and over the Black Hills. A tropical feature will be pushing into the Central Gulf of Mexico, while the West Coast remains dry. The period will end with the strong storm system over the Plains and the Great Lakes bringing another day of severe weather along with winter weather and very cold air. The tropical feature will be approaching the Gulf Coast between MS/AL.
Day 4-7: The period will begin with a frontal boundary over the Great Lakes extending into the Gulf Coast with showers and thunderstorms extending over the Gulf Coast with tropical moisture interacting with the front as well. A new storm system will approach the Pacific Northwest. Day six the storm system will push into the Northeast with showers and thunderstorms from Maine to Florida. A new storm system will be entering the Northern Plains bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will dominate the West. The period will end with another low pressure developing over the Southern Plains, while high pressure slides into the Rockies and Northern Plains.
Day 8-12: The period will start with low pressure moving through the Southern Plains bringing rain and thunderstorms to the region. Showers will also extend northward into the Great Lakes. The cold air in place could also lead to snow showers over the Northern Lakes. Strong high pressure will bring very cold air over the Plains. Day nine a major storm system will be moving into the Eastern Lakes bringing showers to the East Coast and even some heavy snowfall to the Great Lakes. The period will finish with a very strong high pressure center over the Southeast bringing some of the coldest air of the fall to the region. A new tropical will also be taking shape southeast of Cuba.
Long Range Outlook: The period will start with high pressure over the East Coast and a tropical wave moving south of Cuba. Another storm system should also enter the Pacific Northwest at this time. The middle of the period will have high pressure over the East Coast, a tropical wave entering the Gulf, another storm system moving through the Plains, and a very potent low pressure area moving into the Pacific Northwest. The period will finish with a major storm system over the West Coast.
Today’s Spotlight Cities Forecast:
New York NY: Partly cloudy and mild with a high near 77F and overnight lows near 61F. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 75F and overnight lows near 64F. Friday partly cloudy and warm with a high near 78F and overnight lows near 64F. Saturday partly cloudy with a high near 76F and overnight lows near 66F. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 78F and overnight lows near 68F.
Omaha NE: Thunderstorms and breezy with a high near 85F and overnight lows near 64F. Total rainfall near 0.65 inches. Thursday cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 76F and overnight lows near 64F. Total rainfall around 0.45 inches. Friday partly cloudy with showers. High temps around 72F and overnight lows near 50F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches. Saturday partly cloudy and cold with a high near 52F and overnight lows near 40F. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 60F and overnight lows near 42F.
Biloxi MS: Thunderstorms with high temps around 86F and overnight lows near 76F. Total rainfall around 0.35 inches. Thursday mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. High temps around 86F and overnight lows near 76F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches. Friday mostly cloudy thunderstorms and breezy. High temps around 84F and overnight lows near 76F. Total rainfall around 0.55 inches. Saturday cloudy with thunderstorms and breezy. High temps around 79F and overnight lows near 70F. Total rainfall around 0.35 inches. Sunday partly cloudy with a high near 84F and overnight lows near 59F.
Ask The Weatherman for October 2, 2013:
Question: What is the difference between dew and frost?
Answer: Both dew and frost form when the temps and dew points get close to each other. The only differences are that dew will make the grass wet and forms above freezing, while frost forms when the temps fall below freezing and also make a white appearance on the grass.
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Green Energy Weather Report for October 2, 2013:
Wave Energy: Moderate wave energy will be over the Northeast, while light wave energy will be found from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast. The Gulf Coast will see moderate amounts of wave energy with the new developing storm in the southeast Gulf. The Southwest will see light to moderate amounts of energy, while the Northwest will have moderate to extreme.
Hydro Energy: There will be plenty of short term and long term energy over the Rockies and the Northern Plains. There will also be a pocket of short term energy over the Plains and the Great Lakes. There will be ample amounts of short term energy along the Gulf Coast as well.
Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the East Coast and also the West Coast. The Southwest will see plenty of solar energy. There will be limited amounts along the Southeast and Southern Texas in between thunderstorms.
Wind Energy: The strongest amounts of wind energy will occur over the Rockies and into the Western Plains around the strong low pressure area.
October 2 Weather and Your Wallet (Sioux Falls SD):
A strong cold front will begin to push into the region bringing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the region today.
Dining: It would be best to take your lunch to work today.
Transportation: There will be slow downs on the major road ways along with delays at the airport due to the heavy rainfall and also the thunderstorms.
Shopping: If you have to get out and do any shopping, make sure to take your umbrella.
Electricity: There will be a small demand for around 4CDD’s this afternoon.
Yard Work: Today will be a good day to take a rain check on the yard work.
Construction: There will be major impacts to any road work projects or any other outdoor projects due to the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.
Outdoor Venues: It would be wise to reschedule any outdoor plans today.